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 Traders Kopitiam! V7

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Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 05:03 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 6 2015, 04:41 PM)
so.. for every 1 sen higher on the RM/USD exchange rate .. means they MAY have unrealized forex loss of RM 120 million..  shocking.gif

But the REAL amount is going to be smaller as they SHOULD hedge USD too.. but overall not good..

Big elephant indeed..  sweat.gif
*
Problem is AirAsia track record in hedging is piss poor!!!

tongue.gif

The other thing is...
There was a time when USD was weakening like hell and AirAsiabmade ton of forex gains...
100+ million pwr quarter.....
And these bloody analysts never once discounted them gains...
So why when losses...they talk the different ayam?

tongue.gif


Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 05:04 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Mar 6 2015, 04:45 PM)
woah, AA tis time really bad.. Tony the so-called legend gone  rolleyes.gif
*
For a market player....
Thinking of legends is not healthy...

tongue.gif

Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 05:27 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Mar 6 2015, 05:12 PM)
My bad  blush.gif
*
no need say like that leh.... tongue.gif

you see if you are a market player...
what kind of player do you want to be?
Answer? A rational player, right?

now...
what are some stuff that might hinder your judgement?
Biased thinkings....
right?

And wouldn't stuff like legends sway your thinkings?
Like for example...
say you think Ah Boon....
is bloody legend in talking wind...
talking ayam......
so if you regard this bugger as a legend...
your thinking process is already in his favor...
cos he can do no wrong...
if Ah Boon can do no wrong....
how then can his company do any wrong? laugh.gif

just sharing some nonsense leh.....
Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 05:38 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 6 2015, 04:41 PM)
so.. for every 1 sen higher on the RM/USD exchange rate .. means they MAY have unrealized forex loss of RM 120 million..  shocking.gif

But the REAL amount is going to be smaller as they SHOULD hedge USD too.. but overall not good..

Big elephant indeed..  sweat.gif
*
the other thing I was thinking......

1) how much more can AirAsia hedge? tongue.gif

I remember after recent report, Tony was quoted saying that the company has already hedged half of its full year consumption of jet fuel...
which was hedged around on average 80+ (singapore jet fuel )
which means half of AirAsia fuel needs for the year is bought at a much more expensive price.... tongue.gif

anyway... the point is....
in the account....
AirAsia got left 1 billion ....
loans 12 billion....

how much money can AirAsia use to continue to gamble on hedging?

2) the USD debt itself is not constant.
it's expanding cos of AirAsia's commitment to buy new planes.....
this itself is not the elephant...
it's the whale.... tongue.gif

and since the debt itself is expanding...... sweat.gif



Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 05:53 PM

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QUOTE(TakoC @ Mar 6 2015, 05:43 PM)
Boon gor, what do you mean when you said singapore jet fuel? singapore jet fuel that they hedge at 80+? What about MAS? what country jet fuel?
*
See this article:

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/a...-swings-4q-loss

4th last paragraph....

current prices:

http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/S...%29_Futures/JKS




Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 06:05 PM

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QUOTE(TakoC @ Mar 6 2015, 05:41 PM)
I have never read reports on airline industry.

But by right all forex and impairment should not be taken into account as it is not consider a core business earnings.
*
Errr..... it should be for AirAsia case.....
this is because the bulk of AirAsia's earnings is in USD.
any movement will create huge profits/gains.

I mentioned earlier Financial cost as an indicator.

last month report, AirAsia said it paid 153 million in financial cost.
last year same period, AirAsia said it paid only 106 million.

why paid so much?
loans increased. last year same period, loan was 10 billion. Now it is 12 billion.
can 2 billion extra cost AirAsia so much more in interest?
I say, AirAsia paid so much more cost of the USD factor....

and these financial interests.... cost by the huge swing in forex.... is REAL.
it is money paid to the banks already.......


hope my understanding of accounts is correct................. sweat.gif sweat.gif sweat.gif
Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 06:05 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Mar 6 2015, 05:57 PM)
AA Hedge @ 80, but current pricing all below 80 shakehead.gif

btw which one is the petrol one.. the one our gomen use to set retail price

Gasoline RBOB?  hmm.gif
*
errr..... I dunno the answer to that. sweat.gif
Boon3
post Mar 7 2015, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(TakoC @ Mar 6 2015, 08:16 PM)
Thanks Boon gor.
*
If you click on the charts, you will be able to see the following chart...

user posted image


http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=JKSH...nical&template=

You can understand how badly AirAsia did the hedging.... hedged too much, too soon.......

actually, I do remember talking most of this in the previous version of this thread....
if one read the notes, one would have seen Tony started hedging too much too soon......

it's like stocks...
you should never chase a falling stock down............................
Boon3
post Mar 7 2015, 02:31 PM

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QUOTE(lonelywalker @ Mar 6 2015, 11:34 PM)
May I ask when correction come, how much do you all top up to leverage down if your current portfolio is red?

like counter a you buy with rm x.xx, it downs to 15% than you top up little?
*
So your portfolio is red.
What is it telling you?

1. You bought the wrong stock.
2. You bought the 'right' stock at the wrong price.

Either way you are wrong.

When you average down, you are buying more of your 'wrong'.... does this sound right strategy for you?


Problem is ... most will DENY number 1.
they keep telling themselves they bought the 'right' stock but due to poor luck they say they got it an unlucky price...
they always tell themselves, don't worry...
I no sell I no lose....
I got the power man!
I can hold ...
I can wait and wait for the stock to recover......


sometimes....
I guess as LUCK has it...
the stock never recover...
after many donkey years....

then... also.... due to LUCK again....
they need emergency cash....

now what do they do?
they force to swallow the bitter pill...
and sell at a heavy loss.





Boon3
post Mar 7 2015, 06:44 PM

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QUOTE(lonelywalker @ Mar 7 2015, 04:05 PM)
First, I appreciate you all share your thought on my question and Thank you.
Here,
company is on track and facing profit loses due to world market price volatile? And people are panic selling?

Is not saying company having loses, it might just earn lesser.

Company short term debt repay ability will not be a concern because company having enough cash on hand to turn over.

I am new and there is a lot I need to learn in market.

I am alway think on, if i sell now, Yes i can cut loses and buy back later when the price is going uptrend?

Or I leverage down my unit per cost and hold it?

If the company is having serious issue like having serious losses and the management team cannot keep their promise, I will not hesitate to cut off.
*
Dude...
You know this is a public forum and that there's no way I want to be involved in TELLING you what to do exactly.
I cannot be responsible for your money.

OK?

Hope we get this off on the right track....

ok?

I tried to understand your first two sentences...

company is on track and facing profit loses due to world market price volatile? And people are panic selling?
Is not saying company having loses, it might just earn lesser.


is the company losing money or not?
or earning lesser?

anyway, it doesn't matter....

take a step back...

ask yourself a simple question......

if you know what you think you know about the company NOW....
would you have bought this stock earlier?

This post has been edited by Boon3: Mar 7 2015, 07:06 PM
Boon3
post Mar 8 2015, 02:06 PM

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QUOTE(lonelywalker @ Mar 7 2015, 07:19 PM)

Yes, I will buy this counter from the homework I done previously. Now I am waiting for company quarterly report and annual report and I will done my decision whether I will stay or leave. 
It still leaves you back with the original issue....

You said you did the research on the stock.
But .... as you had said..... the stock in the portfolio is under water.... losing money.

it still leaves you back with the original question I raised for you....

1. Did you buy the wrong stock?
2. Did you buy the 'right' stock at the 'wrong' price?

..... and comes next quarterly.... what exactly are you waiting for?
waiting for the data to prove that you are not wrong?

and needless to say....
you need to ask the dumb dumb question....

if you had the chance to do it all over again......
how and what would you have done?



Boon3
post Mar 8 2015, 02:10 PM

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QUOTE(Le Don @ Mar 7 2015, 11:22 PM)
Example like Cybert?  brows.gif
Limit Up on Friday(+33.33%)  flex.gif
*
Question of course is simple.....

could you play the lousy stock game?

and could you play the lousy stock game well?


Boon3
post Mar 9 2015, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Mar 9 2015, 11:25 AM)
There is one tactic like this, and it's simple for noob:
take profit if the price rises 20%; cut loss if it drops 10%

Let's say you have 10 stocks. You take profit in 5 of them, and cut loss in the remaining 5, you still make money overall.

This is not my tactic though. I will look at the fundamentals before making decision.
*
... based on your brief example, you would only need 4 winners to make money. (4 out of 10 !!)

It's a math thing....

all one needs to do is keep winners big and cut the losses small.....
Boon3
post Mar 9 2015, 04:29 PM

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QUOTE(shankar_dass93 @ Mar 9 2015, 03:21 PM)
That happens to me most of the time cry.gif
Im ready to buy Petdagang once it touches 16.
*
Last time, when Petdag shares flew crazy it was driven MAINLY by new petrol station growth.
Think about it....
it rather make sense....
new Petronas stations were popping out everywhere.....
everywhere......
Petronas profits grew and grew....
That was the sexy story behind the stock.


now?
you might buy the stock at a price you think it is cheap....
but does it has a sexy story to sell as previously?



in short...
I have witnessed...
such strategy....
i will buy xxx stock if it drops to yyy price....
most of the time such stuff do not work.
why?
most of the tine the stock price drops for a REAL reason....
and the simple reason is that profits have been declining like crazy......


Boon3
post Mar 9 2015, 04:50 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 9 2015, 04:38 PM)
If I say I wanna buy petgas leh?  tongue.gif

What will be the analysis?  icon_question.gif
*
Same.... tongue.gif

no sexy story to sell..... tongue.gif

Growth story is gone...
you can only have x number of petrol stations around...
after that.... any increase..... might not boost the bottom line at all......

you are trying to hunt for value......

and this you know isn't my fancy....

yezah... for sure... sometimes can win 30 or 40 from a 'rebound' movement....
which for some ... might be good...

but you know me....

i like to trade less....

and when I do trade....

I bloody well like to win big....... biggrin.gif

can Petdag bounce back to say... 20 or 21.... maybe...maybe... possible..
can Petdag reach 34? .... errr... susah.....very the susah......
Boon3
post Mar 9 2015, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 9 2015, 04:56 PM)
Main revenue stream for petgas is not petrol station.. it is the pipeline (2500 km of it)... ie gas transportation, so it is like toll road.  laugh.gif  They do not have risk of inventory as all gas belongs to petronas.  laugh.gif

Catalyst will be the new re-gassification station at Johor to increase output through thier pipeline..  laugh.gif

Risk will be lower uptake of gas usage hence lower 'toll' fee for their pipeline.. but at lower gas prices to come, consumers might use even more gas. laugh.gif

But the current stock price is too high..  sad.gif
*
This fella knows but want to test me.... tongue.gif

LOL!!!






Boon3
post Mar 9 2015, 05:56 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 9 2015, 05:30 PM)
Not test you lar... see what is your opinion only...  tongue.gif

You the sifu mah..  notworthy.gif
*
LOL!

MY way is ......
will have its own shortcomings on certain scenarios...
I know. tongue.gif
I know you know too... tongue.gif
and I certainly know you know that I know you know............. laugh.gif

LOL!


Boon3
post Mar 10 2015, 09:40 AM

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QUOTE(shankar_dass93 @ Mar 9 2015, 08:22 PM)
I agree with your statement as to why did Petdag's shares sore extremely high initially due to new petrol stations that are being opened.

Here is just my point of view?

(a) Why invest in petronas particularly ?
1.
Most people use Petronas as their preferred choice of petrol. Im not saying everyone but most as being observed by the past. Friends, families, guys from car clubs such as Porsche Club Malaysia & Malaysian Super Cars club have a huge percentage of members that usually incline towards using Petronas rather than its competitors such as Shell, Caltex.... Now you might say that the sample size of the population that i choose isn't large enough to come up to a conclusion but i guess its pretty decent to be used as a gauge to estimate the number of Petronas "fans" aka users.Have done some travelling and realised that the Petronas stations are the ones that are usually full especially in rest house areas.

2.
Looking at past charts and graphs has given me confidence that its pretty easy for Petronas to maintain a minimum share price of around RM23- RM25 in the long run.

Why so ?

a. Peoples preferred petrol brand
b. Oil prices could probably reach an all time low of maybe 10-15 dollars a barrel as what some economist/traders 
            have predicted but it would eventually have to return back.
c. There has been thousands of research that has claimed that we are reaching an era in which oil shortage may be 
            an issue. (When supply goes down and demand remains the same, keeping the other factors as ceteris paribus,   
            prices would eventually raise to meet the new equilibrium point.

* So i guess the key strategy here would be to start buying every time it drops significantly when ever its below RM16.

So what happens when oil prices rebound ?
  a. People would still use Petronas as their preferred choice
  b. Petronas constantly comes up with new methods to drill oil with an aim of lowering the cost
  c. Profits start increasing as demand increases
  d. More people would start investing in the O&G sector which would eventually drive share prices up
  e. Finally, investors like us that entered and managed to average our share prices out could be sitting relaxedly
      while receiving a handsome return rclxm9.gif
If my memory serves me right, Petdagang did reach an all time low of about RM14.60 (something) and i really wanted to get into the market but gesh was busy with my final exams doh.gif  If i did buy it at 14.60 and sold it at todays price, i would have easily made about RM300+++ per lot in which i really regret for not doing lol doh.gif  doh.gif
Does my analysis sound right huh Boon3 ? Looking forward for your guidance.
Cheers!
*Please don't forget to recommend us as to any "potential shares" that you foresee would be doing well brows.gif
-edited: spelling
*
Petdag did hit above 30.00.
Are you sure you be happy selling at today's price?

.... your thinking mindset is ok....
but I do believe a lot of people do prefer Shell oil over Petronas.
Performance is better, mileage is actually even better.... but of course there many who would argue over this.

I found the posting I wrote before... Petdag was trading at 21.00 then.

I said NO to the stock then.....

see post #1953

and the earlier somemore.... posy #1624

and see also post #1637


Petdag quarterly performance updated...

user posted image

Boon3
post Mar 10 2015, 09:42 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 9 2015, 05:30 PM)
Not test you lar... see what is your opinion only...  tongue.gif
doh.gif doh.gif doh.gif

Do you know what????

I just realised you were talking about Petgas.

LOL! LOL! LOL!


Boon3
post Mar 10 2015, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 10 2015, 09:54 AM)
Cheh..  tongue.gif

But petgas also a boring company.. no action one.

But at least earning steady, less capex, less maintenance.. much higher margin than petdag.  laugh.gif
*
Petgas many times more sexy than Petdag.

tongue.gif

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