If you ask me, SKPet will announce losses this Q.. because likely they will write off debts especially for Petrolbras. I hope they really do write off those potential bad debts, so SKPet can start the year with a clean slate like what Armada did.

Also less earning forward obviously from less job on hand and less revenue from oil sales.

I Think IF SKpet announce earnings on 24th March, the stock will get hit (Might be a good time to buy  ). For the less income forward (until oil recovery) it is more or less priced in. 

I might be wrong, I am just a crazy investor.. don't follow me or you may earn free trip to holland. 

Coming Q IF they write off, easily  NEGATIVE 200-300m..

After that..

80-120 m per Q ..  for the first 4 Q

EVEN LESS after that IF price of oil continue stays low..

Then have to pray to god, oil goes back up....     

Based on my personal research on bursamalaysia website on company shares movement and quarterly earning report, heres the big tip:

Most of the time The share price move in anticipation of the performance....not when the quarterly report announce only the price move...

The ticker tape move more like a future performance. It moves first and then after 1 or 2 days only u will know why it moves so when the announcement or reports published...

Hmm I do admit that I did not for see oil drop to ~$40 .. i was expecting it to hover around $50-$55 ...

Guess that was the wrong bet...

In before oil later drops to ~$30 ..   

Yup thats why i say most of the time. In stock game a foolproof surefire technique that works all the time doesnt exist...if u can find a trading method that profit 70-80% of the time u already the top 5-10% of the trading guru

Can same lvl with gark or boon edi

This is not a blind bet.. I was referring to WTI price during the 2008-2009 crash... that is the basis (Yes I was doing charting  ) .

In 2008 WTI reach below $50.. then quickly back to $80-$100 range for a couple of years. ANd there WAS excess supply of oil during that period as well, the excess was quickly adsorbed within 6 months or so.

Now It might stay a bit longer at the bottom.. because the c2pid americans don't want to stop drilling.. but if you look at the long term WTI chart VS oil production & demand chart, it does not look like fundamental issue, it is a temporary panic sell. The WTI chart has broken way below the oil demand chart, it is matter of time more and more rigs are taken offline and the excess supply will balance itself.

Yes there is excess oil now of 1mmbbl per day also does not make sense in a daily world consumption of 50-55 mmbbl. That is only like 2% excess capacity while the price brokedown 60% from high  . In a year or two that excess 1mmbbl will be easily adsorbed IF economies can grow by merely 2%, which is not impossible as emerging markets are growing at 3%-5% per clip, heck even Europe and US is growing at 1%-2% per year. 

And the c2pid americans cant even export all their excess oil by law until their storage tanks fill up..that was broke the WTI lately.     

And meanwhile the China government obviously thought crude at cheap now, they are stoking their national emergency stockpile at unprecedented rate. 

Sometimes, sometimes... market can act irrational for a long time..

SKPetro is special in a way as they are both oil producer/operator and service company, they are more prepared to handle this slump compared to a pure service company such as UMW oil and gas which already saw some of the contract for their drilling rig cancelled, but i believe their workover unit might still see some job , however the margin is lower in a workover unit compared to drilling rig.

Why not? Have you seen the financials?

Cash RM 1.83 billion

Short term loan RM 5.3 billion
Long term loan RM 5.3 Billion

Total loan 10.6 billion

Interest rate per year : 477 million p.a

IF they are in a money losing position, at most they can service their loan up to 1-1.5 years only..

mind if i ask Boon3 and gark, if you see a stock trading at PE20x, will you immediately put aside or still monitor?

Boon, Gark is an extremely smart man. His trying his best to get the share price to drop to his desired range then you'll find him buying a huge sum of it and sitting back relaxedly 

interesting perspective, but personally this round I think it has to do with the strength of the USD. It's not that the American's are stupid. Actually they're really clever in manipulating it.
QE3 stopped around Oct 2014. The price of Oil really nose dived around then as the US dollar gained strength, since oil has to be traded in USD.
Low oil prices benefit a manufacturing based economy. This means that 42 states in the Union gained competitive advantage vs only 8 shale oils states suffering, plus the low prices are also killing oil producers which are not friendly with the US, such as Venezuela, Iran and Russia, forcing some like Iran to the bargaining table. You think you can laugh at the Americans for stupidity, but then you realize they are actually the ones sitting pretty at the moment with low unemployment and inflation..... it's not always about just the oil. You have to look at the larger geopolitical / geo-economic  perspective too.

I thought u had some discussion with them in V6?

Hahaha the result is expected.. in fact i expect it to write off the newfields asset.. but they did not.

120-150 mil EPS per Q is going to be norm from now on.   

The share price did not drop due to results is because it is more or less priced in already.. 

boon gor.. jangan cakap banyak...

tell me what to buy now... i go hantam now...... 

Considering, but the price is not going anywhere.. so I will see how it goes.

Yeah they should have declared a loss and start with a clean slate.. now we are not going to know when they are going to throw the time bomb. 

Ah Boon start hunting already? 

Apa teh?

Kopitiam teh or TWG teh? 

*ting..*

Pins dropping.. 

Decided to AVERAGE UP on 4*3* .. on recent price weakness... previously recommend to pinky one.. 

Investment Pros

1. New factory which will double the commercial packaging division will be up by next year. This division is growing at a healthy rate based on Asia's move to prepackaged convenience foods.

2. Lower feed cost (Due to cheaper oil) for industrial and commercial packaging division, and have healthy USD based sales.

3. Property division is expected to be stagnant, but concentration on low to medium cost property should able to be resilient.

4. Management target of doubling packaging revenue by 2017, this is the same management which said they will double the EPS within 5 years and did it successfully.

5. Counter is selling at undemanding PE 9+ X and DY 3+% and ROE 19+%. Expected immediate growth to be 5%-10% until plant expansion complete.

Investment Cons

1. High USD based borrowing which has incurred FOREX loss for the past 3Q. However management have steadily reduced the USD loans.

2. Margin weakness in industrial packaging division because of high competition from other local players with aggressive capacity expansion due to USD export market. Is this a glove counter deja-vu all over again?

3. Thin trading volume which makes it difficult to acquire or dispose in large amount. A boring counter.