reit continues de-rating....
waiting rabbits....
M Reits Version 7, Malaysia Real Estate Investment
M Reits Version 7, Malaysia Real Estate Investment
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Jan 8 2018, 04:08 PM
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#61
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
reit continues de-rating....
waiting rabbits.... |
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Jan 8 2018, 05:20 PM
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#62
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
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Jan 9 2018, 02:43 AM
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#63
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
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Jan 9 2018, 02:45 AM
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#64
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
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Jan 9 2018, 01:19 PM
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#65
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 9 2018, 10:14 AM) Reit market is anticipating a rate rise in near term, until the interest rate issue being cleared up, reit market may still under depress for sometimes, thanks for sharing but I do not think it will be more than 0.25%, max 0.5% at least until year end. Personally target Axreit- 1.40 IGbreit - 1.55 Mqreit - 1.20 YTLreit - 1.15 <-- this is least being affected local issue (like BNM rate rise, properties glut, as bulk of income is contributed by Australia hotels.) Buy in tranches with every 3-5 cents drop is downturn is preferred as we do not know when it is the bottom. |
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Jan 11 2018, 10:59 PM
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#66
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
rate hike fear continues spreading fear on related assets, inclusive REIT and Bond.
china recently said to find US bond no longer attractive. Guess bond bear will emerge. REIT is still worrisome. I am indecisive if to add more MReit at today's bearish situation. |
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Jan 25 2018, 10:11 PM
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#67
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
sounded a possible 2nd hike this year....that is not good for reit. consider 3.5%, reit with excellent to good asset quality should at least returning a net yield of 5.5%-6%, which means there could be another 5%-10% correction on reits.
of course, if the particular reit able to increase DPU, that would neutralize this number. This post has been edited by yok70: Jan 25 2018, 10:12 PM |
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Jan 26 2018, 12:06 AM
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#68
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
QUOTE(jutamind @ Jan 25 2018, 10:44 PM) Thinking of swapping UOAREIT to AXREIT, primarily due to concern on office rentals in the near term. i am personally favor the Axreit. One key reason is its asset focus on industrial properties. Second key reason is i have faith for its management team. Is it wise to do so even though AXREIT yield is lower? uoa group is very well managed too, strong management team. But same concern like you, i am more worry on office assets. |
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Jan 29 2018, 05:20 AM
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#69
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
QUOTE(return78 @ Jan 27 2018, 09:32 AM) I would says if one plan to hold REIT counters more than 7 years, collect slowly now could be a good plan. err....badly, haha! i think share price cut to half like that. ow are they preformed during the last recession? reit reacts like stocks on economy changes most of the time. This post has been edited by yok70: Jan 29 2018, 05:22 AM |
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Feb 6 2018, 10:30 AM
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#70
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
flash crash, jim cramer said.
anyone dare to pick up some rabbits? This post has been edited by yok70: Feb 6 2018, 10:30 AM |
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Feb 8 2018, 08:42 PM
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#71
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
QUOTE(Paddy Teddington @ Feb 8 2018, 08:09 AM) today fast rebound to 1.51. At this price, forward net yield could be around 5.25%, still not a bad one, but i prefer above 5.5% (price below 1.44) because of rate hike environment as well as stiff retail mall competition.This post has been edited by yok70: Feb 8 2018, 08:44 PM |
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Feb 13 2018, 11:00 PM
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#72
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
US bond yield rise, fear spread. Expecting to reach 3.5% by 2018.
Malaysia rate? if another one round hike of 0.25%, that would be 3.5% as well. To add a gap of 2-2.5%, MReit net yield of 5.5-6% would be reasonable, for office reit, i'll add another 0.5% which becomes 6.5% net yield. This post has been edited by yok70: Feb 13 2018, 11:01 PM |
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Feb 15 2018, 08:05 AM
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#73
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Feb 14 2018, 09:27 AM) the last time we almost reach bond yield 3.5 was 2011. but the time if I am not mistaken there is an event that S&P & Moody downgraded US bond itself lol In fact, looking at Axreit, its current price is very similar to its price in 2011-2012. Meaning, if we invested during that time, until today, we are getting almost zero capital gain, but receiving yield of about 5.5% every year. Not fantastic, just slightly better than a store of cash value. However, if we put in ringgit depreciation, the return become pretty unsatisfying. And the risk? actually not small. For instance, we are watching last time's beauty such as cmmt becomes today's risky asset. risk premium for 2.0-3.0% is still consider low premium IMO. sometimes I just feel that the local institution fund here is too much money going for only very few quality companies for the sake of compliance and window dressing. I guess the average yield after tax in Sgreits still higher than Mreits ? |
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Feb 15 2018, 10:23 PM
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#74
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
QUOTE(cherroy @ Feb 15 2018, 09:32 AM) Receiving a yield of 2~3% premium over 7 years period, means reit generate nearly 20% more than Cash(FD) over the period. thanks for the insight.Don't look down the extra 2~3%, it could be significant over the long term. Yes, I agreed risk is never small to start with. As investors, we need to react to individual reit fundamental change. CMMT fundamental is not the same as last time out. Secondary mall outlook bleak + interest rate hike, double whammy. But it may look attractive, if continue being sold down. Reit won't have fantastic return over the long term, it is a yield play like bond, instead of equity. For currency depreciation, every stock in KLSE also suffer the faith, not limited to reit. This is reason, I would like to see MReit venture into overseas property, just like YTLreit YTLreit is benefit from RM depreciation, through its Australia properties. I understand how reit holders feeling, as current it is a reit bear market. ya, now the biggest frustration is how long will this reit bear market long. As we all know, in coming one or two years, rate hike environment most likely going to continue. In addition to that, how long the bear market on property market going to last, which has been 2 to 3 years so far, are we looking at another 2 years? or 3? i've no idea. Those "experts" have been saying recovery since last year, which never happen yet. you are right, if we have more mreits with international exposure would be nice choice for us. When we put money to FD in malaysia, we almost never have to worry at all. Bond is a different story though, risk is still quite high. |
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Feb 21 2018, 05:00 PM
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#75
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
QUOTE(cherroy @ Feb 21 2018, 10:12 AM) Reit are "battled" across due to rate hike recently, as well as potential mall and office space oversupply. if that's the case, then it's a sell for today and wait for better re-entry point I guess reit market may be correcting to old day yield of 6.x~7.x% before bottoming. at this moment, net yield is at around 5.5%-6.5%, so we need another 10% price drop to reach 6%-7% net yield. This post has been edited by yok70: Feb 21 2018, 05:02 PM |
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Feb 21 2018, 08:51 PM
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#76
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
QUOTE(GetHappy @ Feb 21 2018, 06:27 PM) US is actually looking at a 4 times hike this year with quarter basis point each time. i agree with Cherroy, malaysia unlikely to hike 3 times this year. I think 2 times the most. However, it's hard to say if next year would continue to hike one or two times. Anyhow, interest rate of 4% is consider "too high" for malaysia i think. If it ever reaches there, economy may suffer serious slowdown and business activities (and of course, stock market valuation) will slow down. Most likely BNM (i wrote BN than i realise i forgot the M) will follow 3 times, our interest rate for Dec'17 went up very slightly. Pretty bullish on 6 to 7% divvy yield. |
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Feb 23 2018, 01:20 AM
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#77
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
grabbed some MQReit at 1.16
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Feb 23 2018, 01:20 AM
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#78
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
QUOTE(cherroy @ Feb 22 2018, 10:23 AM) For malls reit, outside of so called "top malls", I won't consider at all. very nice put, so true. In current situation, IGBreit is actually blessed with no "diversification", and only has the only "top malls", which spared from secondary malls oversupply. pavilion is a great mall, but not its other assets. And for future potential injections, the pavilion elite is fine, but F88 still not a great asset (yet), mainly because for competition vise (particularly competing with pavilion), it required unique characters which is still not strong enough, besides having a few popular stores such as uniqlo, Shoopen. This post has been edited by yok70: Feb 23 2018, 01:24 AM |
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Feb 28 2018, 05:04 AM
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#79
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
mreit's bear market had arrived....and for how long? well, nobody knows. grab your seat and watch the show
i'd been worrying on mreit since rate hike began....i'd been keep on calculating the yield rise (aka price drop) percentage according to potential rate hike effect.... This post has been edited by yok70: Feb 28 2018, 05:07 AM |
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Feb 28 2018, 10:40 AM
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#80
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
QUOTE(return78 @ Feb 28 2018, 09:12 AM) dividend portfolio? for those with higher EPS growth potential (not reit), i've no worry at all. as for reit portfolio, i still have some, now sideline, wondering if i should start selling. I should have sold at least half of them 6 months ago while i was quite worried on rate hike effect. |
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