if rate continues to move up 0.5% by end-2019, that would be a 15% hike for current 3.25%. Meaning, if the reit we bought today didn't increase DPU by 15% til end-2019, we will continue to suffer price drop, which possible means that putting money into FD might give us even better yield until end-2019.

currently, only IGBReit gives me a little better confidence of DPU increment. Other than it, even Axreit or MQReit i am having doubt whether they could increase DPU, if not decreasing instead!

This post has been edited by yok70: Feb 28 2018, 12:49 PM

cmmt management comes from a reputable company, i agree. And the malaysia team managed malls in cmmt portfolio with no big issue, i also agree.

however, i'd not say they did a good job. Everything we watch, result is the final answer, especially in business world. The many malls now cmmt manages, more than half of them are not doing well. In fact, even the best performers (ie. Gurney) are not outstanding, not unbeatable, still facing serious competitions. Not like the case of some top malls in malaysia today such as Pavillion and Midvalley, which is so far still unbeatable for any rival competition.

Maybe we could blame it on the choice of malls cmmt had been purchasing all these years. But, to decide which mall to purchase is also cmmt management's responsibility. Surrounding The Mines area, there is no obvious competition. SW is located at very strategic spot.

So my conclusion is, cmmt is not a bad manager, but not a brilliant one either. I believe already successful malls in their hands can be good and sustainable. But to turn around a bad mall into good? I doubt their ability, after looking at their portfolio and performance. I do think China's businessman are much more creative than Singapore's one, China has been such a boom in creativity in recent 5 years, lots of world leading new ideas born every second. I just thought a turn around management team most likely would come from China, that's why i have very high hope on Proton now.

This post has been edited by yok70: Mar 2 2018, 12:04 AM

When we say reit "at least has properties assets in their hands, that could be sold", it's not so easy in reality.

Take a look at cmmt's SW. SW's DPU has been dropping for years with pretty serious double digit decline. I didn't check, but i think it had dropped more than 50%? If we can "see" an asset going to decline income into half, would we sell it? So why didn't cmmt sell SW and use that money to buy a better mall?

I just want to point out that, even with large amount of properties value in a reit, as long as it didn't (or couldn't, because of bear market) sell them, that becomes just a value trap, to say the least. Can only see, can never touch. And we can only see DPU decreasing, reit price decreasing, nothing we could do about it.

i like to see reit as a country bond. Both some kind of tied with world bond yield, and both kind of safe asset that won't become zero overnight. If this perspective makes sense, i would look at Buffett's words now, he said, don't ever consider bond safer than stocks. I actually fully agreed with Buffetts on this one. Bond is a dangerous play actually, the price can go big swing just like stocks do, 20-30% is nothing. And we witness reit did the same thing, swing 30% without too much sweating.

congrats on your successful timing the reit market

hell yeah, this nestle is crazy, valuation is like nothing to nestle's investors, they just buy and buy and nothing else.

property stocks are being sold like garbage

really, lots of high yield stocks now, even maybank at current "overbought" price still could give around 5% net yield.

very very very slowly....

so weird that sunreit didn't fall much....

current MSG 10 years is 4%.

according to current environment, to give a spread of 2% (from net yield) for excellent asset class, 3% for moderate asset class, and 4% for high risk asset class. i have the followings of today's closing price.

axreit 6.1% slightly undervalue (target 6%)
cmmt 7.4% slightly overvalue (target 7.5%)
sunreit 5.4% highly overvalue (target 6.5%)
hektar 7.1% slightly overvalue (target 7%)
mqreit 7.3% moderately undervalue (target 7%)
igbreit 5.6% moderately overvalue (target 6%)
pavreit 5.8% overvalue (target 6.5%)

This post has been edited by yok70: Mar 8 2018, 06:00 AM

caught some axreit

happy reit day

did management said what are their concrete plans to re-juice sg wang?

This post has been edited by yok70: Mar 29 2018, 10:29 PM

interesting.
so she's not re-investing dividends, just spent them, right?

Wow, this is really focus on plans to refreshing (especially) their (under performed) malls, 一針見血.

sg wang doesn't benefit much from MRT, unless huge crowd increases by the MRT that full up all the malls around. The MRT out in front of lot 10, that side spacious and clean, convenient to F88 that links nicely to pavilion. The sg wang side, quite messy because of messy structure of shops and streets. The most fatal part is there is no direct linkage from station straight to sg wang mall like klcc, which is very strange, maybe will come later? this would greatly bring more crowd to the mall. And too bad the deal to build a link for sg wang and berjaya times square didn't work out.

how about....undervalue?

thing is, increasing assets doesn't mean increasing DPU, therefore doesn't mean increasing stock price and yield. Its net yield now above 7%, it's very hard to find assets that could provide above 7% yield at current market condition.

This post has been edited by yok70: Apr 20 2018, 01:14 AM

can reits yield increment reach the level of rate hike speed? if yes, can be here to stay. If not, worrisome for mid term at least (until rate hike trend stabilized).

for reference,
10-year MGS today closed at 4.22%,
7-year 4.03%,
5-year 3.81%.

Based on different reit assets types, put in a spread between 1.5%-2.5% on the net yield (not gross yield) would be nice for consideration, for only the good reits of course.
Good luck!

This post has been edited by yok70: May 23 2018, 10:00 PM

maybe because Post GE risk, since REIT gives most people the image of "lower risk investment", which, of course, is not quite accurate.
secondly, which i wish it's not true, is that big sharks pushing up price, in order to later cut down their exposure in reit before US further rate hike in June that could put negative sentiment on reit.

This post has been edited by yok70: May 25 2018, 10:08 PM

SREIT is played by international investors. Usually, MREIT will follow SREIT few months after SREIT's move.