QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 22 2014, 11:52 PM)
You haven't reply to say you think the bull market will still continue in 2015 or not leh....Still UUU until 2015 ?
Property Bubble Burst or Deflate ? V14 (发), Cherroy Most Forwarded Thread
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Nov 23 2014, 07:44 AM
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Nov 23 2014, 08:45 AM
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This post has been edited by gunplakk: Nov 23 2014, 08:47 AM |
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Nov 23 2014, 08:49 AM
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QUOTE(gunplakk @ Nov 23 2014, 08:45 AM) Raising interest rates will start in Apr 2015, 6 months from end of QE3, the fed will look @ raising interest rates, if their jobless drops below 6.5%... Back in Msia, we will probably see another 25 basis point increase in the next 6 months or so.... and this trend will continue until probably the next recession, which could be soon, maybe 2018? have strong news from bankers, OPR is poised to strike upwards on January by 25 points..But then on the other hand, now with the drop in oil prices... this could somewhat starve off recession for a while as the world has more money to spend on other stuff than paying for petrol and this will add pressure for interest rates to raise. for Msia it works the other way around, since we are net exporters. High oil prices works better for msia as a whole. Lower oil prices then in turns puts pressure on MYR to depreciate as our oil exports earns less. This eventually will increase prices of imported stuff, adds to inflation and therefore, increase pressure on Zeti to increase interest rates to help MYR appreciate and relieve inflationary pressure. Now, if all these are true, best thing to do now, is hold liquid assets and reduce debt.... when the recession comes, cash is king. Malaysians are only good in heavy debt taking, very sure many flippers are from this category and contributed , transaction slow means no more credit to take on.. next year want to purchase properties are before GST FEB to before GST, maybe some discounts can be seen, or after GST by July onwards recession is coming, yet, these ppl are still on property price up mode |
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Nov 23 2014, 08:58 AM
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Nov 23 2014, 08:58 AM
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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 23 2014, 08:49 AM) have strong news from bankers, OPR is poised to strike upwards on January by 25 points.. msian property market dont make sense to me.... like i said in my early post... the prices SHOULD drop and i have been expecting it to drop... but I have never been right. so far it always proved me wrong. But having said that, lately, the prices seems somewhat stagnated and even some slight drops. Malaysians are only good in heavy debt taking, very sure many flippers are from this category and contributed , transaction slow means no more credit to take on.. next year want to purchase properties are before GST FEB to before GST, maybe some discounts can be seen, or after GST by July onwards recession is coming, yet, these ppl are still on property price up mode I dont know but GST should increase the prices of property as material cost goes up i guess. Jan up by 25, seems a bit soon... http://themalaysianreserve.com/main/news/c...till-1h-of-2015 |
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Nov 23 2014, 09:00 AM
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Nov 23 2014, 09:21 AM
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QUOTE(gunplakk @ Nov 23 2014, 08:58 AM) msian property market dont make sense to me.... like i said in my early post... the prices SHOULD drop and i have been expecting it to drop... but I have never been right. so far it always proved me wrong. But having said that, lately, the prices seems somewhat stagnated and even some slight drops. ask all bank tutup paip, loan dun simply give and increase BLR.. no body buy only loan servicing, when household debt fell then fast reduce BLR or buyers opt for fixed rateI dont know but GST should increase the prices of property as material cost goes up i guess. Jan up by 25, seems a bit soon... http://themalaysianreserve.com/main/news/c...till-1h-of-2015 |
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Nov 23 2014, 09:32 AM
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Nov 23 2014, 09:39 AM
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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 23 2014, 08:49 AM) have strong news from bankers, OPR is poised to strike upwards on January by 25 points.. OPR increase u have to downgrade your target again..Malaysians are only good in heavy debt taking, very sure many flippers are from this category and contributed , transaction slow means no more credit to take on.. next year want to purchase properties are before GST FEB to before GST, maybe some discounts can be seen, or after GST by July onwards recession is coming, yet, these ppl are still on property price up mode Petrol floating , developer will increase selling price for unexpected rising cost on petrol GST constructiom material Increase Petrol floating cause super inflation , money become smaller Goodview downgrade to green terrain Green terrain downgrade to parklane/Connaught avenue downgrade to apartment From apartment downgrade to ho ching yuen flat... |
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Nov 23 2014, 10:22 AM
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QUOTE(gunplakk @ Nov 23 2014, 08:58 AM) msian property market dont make sense to me.... like i said in my early post... the prices SHOULD drop and i have been expecting it to drop... but I have never been right. so far it always proved me wrong. But having said that, lately, the prices seems somewhat stagnated and even some slight drops. Property is illiquid, asking price and transacted price could be a huge difference, and price takes a few years to bottom.I dont know but GST should increase the prices of property as material cost goes up i guess. Jan up by 25, seems a bit soon... http://themalaysianreserve.com/main/news/c...till-1h-of-2015 Construction cost I.e materials, labour, subcon profit, etc of typical condo is about rm150 PSF, impact of gst is marginal besides most of these building materials are already paying higher sales tax. If price will goes up because of gst, current asking price will already included the expected increments and up. |
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Nov 23 2014, 10:28 AM
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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Nov 23 2014, 09:39 AM) OPR increase u have to downgrade your target again.. Unless wages will rise inline or faster than inflation rate, disposable income will drop. A drop in disposable income will have more downward pressure on the housing market than essential daily consumption.Petrol floating , developer will increase selling price for unexpected rising cost on petrol GST constructiom material Increase Petrol floating cause super inflation , money become smaller Goodview downgrade to green terrain Green terrain downgrade to parklane/Connaught avenue downgrade to apartment From apartment downgrade to ho ching yuen flat... Typical development takes 2 to 4 years to VP, developers are already included gst in projects that VP in 2015 and later. This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 23 2014, 10:45 AM |
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Nov 23 2014, 10:36 AM
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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Nov 23 2014, 09:39 AM) OPR increase u have to downgrade your target again.. alwayls dog eye me... trying make fear that we will live in flats/apartments...Petrol floating , developer will increase selling price for unexpected rising cost on petrol GST constructiom material Increase Petrol floating cause super inflation , money become smaller Goodview downgrade to green terrain Green terrain downgrade to parklane/Connaught avenue downgrade to apartment From apartment downgrade to ho ching yuen flat... look at the brighter side, not so easy to hit till that bottom... I am empty, neither my family |
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Nov 23 2014, 10:38 AM
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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 23 2014, 10:28 AM) Unless wages will rise inline or faster than inflation rate, disposable income will drop. A drop in disposable income will have more downward pressure on the housing market than essential daily consumption. Part time or even full time Ice Cream stall assistant wages has always been extremely slow growth, in fact the entire F & B industry wages is among the lowest, as there is huge competition both in business as well as supply of low skills workers which can easily replaced by foreign labour which only ask for half the wages of locals. A single property change hand even cheapest one is enough for 10 years wages for a ice cream store assistant 10 years wages with 8 hours X 28 working days plus overtime when needed. SiGH.. |
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Nov 23 2014, 10:40 AM
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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 23 2014, 10:22 AM) Property is illiquid, asking price and transacted price could be a huge difference, and price takes a few years to bottom. All the more reason to wait it out if you can.... msia could be on the journey to the bottom as you say. Construction cost I.e materials, labour, subcon profit, etc of typical condo is about rm150 PSF, impact of gst is marginal besides most of these building materials are already paying higher sales tax. If price will goes up because of gst, current asking price will already included the expected increments and up. Dunno about the price if reflected GST or not.... but my guess is that people will always take advantage to increase prices of stuff.... if i see roti canai price up, some how or rather there will be knock on effect to everything else. perhaps my view too simplistic and one sided. The looming GST sheds a large cloud of uncertainty on alot of things. Uncertainty translate to risk... and in investment, usually with higher risk you will require higher returns... so buying now, with the added risk, do you expect higher returns? so boils down to your expectations and risk appetite. for the risk adverse like me, i would side line. |
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Nov 23 2014, 10:43 AM
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13,761 posts Joined: Jun 2011 |
Wah I like the same old cow dung
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Nov 23 2014, 10:46 AM
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21,457 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(gunplakk @ Nov 23 2014, 10:40 AM) All the more reason to wait it out if you can.... msia could be on the journey to the bottom as you say. Typical development takes 2 to 4 years to VP, developers have already included gst in projects that VP in 2015 and later.Dunno about the price if reflected GST or not.... but my guess is that people will always take advantage to increase prices of stuff.... if i see roti canai price up, some how or rather there will be knock on effect to everything else. perhaps my view too simplistic and one sided. The looming GST sheds a large cloud of uncertainty on alot of things. Uncertainty translate to risk... and in investment, usually with higher risk you will require higher returns... so buying now, with the added risk, do you expect higher returns? so boils down to your expectations and risk appetite. for the risk adverse like me, i would side line. More likely some developers will advertise for no gst price increase after April 2015. This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 23 2014, 10:51 AM |
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Nov 23 2014, 10:49 AM
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600 posts Joined: Jun 2014 |
QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 23 2014, 10:36 AM) alwayls dog eye me... trying make fear that we will live in flats/apartments... Not dog eye u. If you buy 5 years before u could get green terrain less than 400k, pearlview less than 300k. Next year may be 500 sq ft studio alone cost more than 600klook at the brighter side, not so easy to hit till that bottom... I am empty, neither my family |
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Nov 23 2014, 10:54 AM
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21,457 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
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Nov 23 2014, 11:00 AM
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3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 23 2014, 10:36 AM) alwayls dog eye me... trying make fear that we will live in flats/apartments... U would have bought Goodview Height if you successfully get the sponsor you mentioned all this while, family might talk big but when it boiled down to ringgit & sen then total different story, a sponsorship in property nowadays is no chicken feed promise.look at the brighter side, not so easy to hit till that bottom... I am empty, neither my family If you indeed getting those sponsored quite sure you wouldn't end up a square one till date. Yes ! You are Dog Eyed once more. Those 40K saving of yours is still peanut even you double or triple it. |
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Nov 23 2014, 11:03 AM
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