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 Property Bubble Burst or Deflate ? V14 (发), Cherroy Most Forwarded Thread

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gunplakk
post Nov 19 2014, 09:13 PM

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hmmm this age still got ppl use FD statement, quite troublesome if every month need to go and open new FD... should just do online.
gunplakk
post Nov 19 2014, 09:19 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 19 2014, 09:17 PM)
Online only offer board rate. For best rate, going to banks only can get
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not if u renew monthly, its all the same, for large sums go for priority banking.... you get better rates and your savings itself also give you 2.5%
200K I think is minimum entry @ CIMB, 500 for MBB
gunplakk
post Nov 19 2014, 09:30 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 19 2014, 09:28 PM)
hsbc mai online.. got 2-3 piece, but I am old timer, i harass hsbc staff for them to give me 1 copy..

hong leong too, affin i think not..
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open a priority banking... makes your life a lot easier.
gunplakk
post Nov 19 2014, 09:51 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 19 2014, 09:46 PM)
When you are free 1 day, go and ask your banker whether placing online and walk in rate is different or not. From the way you wrote, you will only believe your banker  tongue.gif

For FD, only a few banks give special rate to priority customer. Banks' promotional rates mostly are the best already. Now a number of banks give 4%. Board rate only low 3%.

If you are wondering, yes I am priority customer of a few banks. For FD, no difference. For other banking service like forex rate, transaction costs etc they are good. Priority banking is more on their better personal service compare to normal Q at the counter
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4% is u must put for 1 yr or negotiate a term.... for large amounts and long lock up periods use SD...

Haha so we all know you have about 500K-1Mil in liquid assets biggrin.gif
you are cash rich.
gunplakk
post Nov 19 2014, 10:09 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 19 2014, 10:01 PM)
Go to this discussion thread. A lot of seasoned sifu share great info on FD. The latest update on the post #2. No need negotiation. No need large sum. Just walk in. Online never got such good rate
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3341150
p/s I never like to compare whose balls is bigger in a forum. I think it is not relevant  tongue.gif
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yeah, then it needs me to move my funds here and there between banks to maximize the returns... hence put in SD, u get about 5-6% depending on the offer... principle guranteed... the other thing is that now, put some of your eggs in overseas SD for longer term... still can get abotu 4% but u get capital appreciation... (assuming MYR depreciates over the years). Diversify.

dont compare balls... but its also prudent to keep your balls hidden!
gunplakk
post Nov 19 2014, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 19 2014, 10:08 PM)
I told you at any point in time, there are bad news which lead DDD to think the market is going to crash. Subprime, Euro crisis, malaysia MNC closed factories and move out of malaysia, malaysia oil price up to RM2.70 etc etc. All these happened for the past 5-6 years. But property price still high up there

If you really want to see property crash, you have to expect economic crisis like Asian Currency Crisis in 1997/98.

Even crisis happen, only bad property will drop price. Good ones will not be affected much. In 97/98, the effect on price drop is not like 50%. So, your dream house may not be within your reach.
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for this I beg to differ, I really think the prices of property is too high, it "Should" come down. For some reason, Msia has alot of holding power and therefore, my "should" has never come true so far...
But seeing how SG and other countries are doing now, property prices are on the down side.

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...rket/?style=biz

Its simple... I look at my own house and the price it is now, I cant afford to buy back my own house, so in my simple mind, there will be others like me... and therefore, the price is too high. at some point something has to break! of course I have yet to be right!! tongue.gif

gunplakk
post Nov 19 2014, 10:29 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 19 2014, 10:26 PM)
What is SD ?
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Structured deposits
gunplakk
post Nov 19 2014, 10:32 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 19 2014, 10:21 PM)
If you really have those amount in hand, you got to be realistic

1. Buy something within reach first for your wedding. You can always upgrade later. Buying house is not a 1 time affair. Pr1ma is not a bad choice
2. Work harder. Instead of spending so much time here (Read the story below)
3. Find ways to improve your income. Work part time while you are still young
4. Make something happen that is within your control. Don't expect something happen that is not within your control (like property crash)

Same advice as I always say to you - don't time the market on your first house. You are gambling you and your family's future. Buy something which is financially comfortable to you. Don't ever stretch your financial because people tend to think they can afford something they don't. That's why you still have a job because it is these people who keep your busy
Story :

God gives everyone 3 x 8 hours per day. 1st 8 hours everbody needs to sleep. 2nd 8 hours everybody needs to work. It is how a person spend on the 3rd 8 hours that determine the success and failure of a person
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Sound advise, the only variable is the measure of success, which to each it's own.
gunplakk
post Nov 19 2014, 10:36 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 19 2014, 10:30 PM)
Don't get me wrong. I also think the price is high now  tongue.gif

I also "wish" price could come down.

As you said, "For some reason..", we got to be realistic. What would cause the price to come down ? I can think of 1 possible scenario - economic crisis, which will cause property crash.

Other than that ? Can you name it ?
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The scenario I am waiting for is for the country to go bankrupt, hence putting funds elsewhere ands repatriate when myr goes bust... Long term not anytime soon, min 5 max 10-15 yrs.
looking at our interest rates, not going to cause any problems to the property market for now... We need high npl, is npl on the rise? Don't think so.. So bubble bursting soon? It should!! But probably won't!! Yet any way
gunplakk
post Nov 19 2014, 10:40 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 19 2014, 10:34 PM)
Oh....that is long term like 5 years locked with auto call right ?
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Yup... They get snapped up very fast. So need ur banker to inform u when got. But now year end, so bonds and sd returns not so good, wait for jan
gunplakk
post Nov 19 2014, 10:43 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 19 2014, 10:38 PM)
Yes. That is how a person spend their 3rd 8 hours that determines their success
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Yeah so if a person measure of success is happiness, and posting on lowyat makes him happy, the fact that he is happy, I would say he is successful. Success is not just about money.
gunplakk
post Nov 19 2014, 10:57 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 19 2014, 10:48 PM)
Different product. Each has its supporter  tongue.gif

I also don't like something that put a clump on my funds for years

I think we all keep cash as emergency or while waiting for right investment
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Denominated in myr?
U have so much cash, not all needs to be near cash liquid ma. Some long some short some super long and some far even. Equity? No la, ppl like me no time to jaga and cannot resist monitoring, better stay away from equity. If u wan equity maybe good to put in Sg like Singtel with good dividend payouts.
gunplakk
post Nov 19 2014, 11:06 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 19 2014, 10:57 PM)
Very good point  thumbup.gif

But for bearbear, he has to get his first house. I can sense his anger towards the high property price and his imaginative enemies - the flippers, the UUU and everyone and everything that gets in his way from his dream house.

So, we are here to help him a little. But so far, our effort is futile  tongue.gif
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You are very patient. I have difficulty following his argument, not very cohesive
gunplakk
post Nov 23 2014, 08:45 AM

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This post has been edited by gunplakk: Nov 23 2014, 08:47 AM
gunplakk
post Nov 23 2014, 08:58 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 23 2014, 08:49 AM)
have strong news from bankers, OPR is poised to strike upwards on January by 25 points..

Malaysians are only good in heavy debt taking, very sure many flippers are from this category and contributed , transaction slow means no more credit to take on..

next year want to purchase properties are before GST FEB to before GST, maybe some discounts can be seen, or after GST by July onwards

recession is coming, yet, these ppl are still on property price up mode
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msian property market dont make sense to me.... like i said in my early post... the prices SHOULD drop and i have been expecting it to drop... but I have never been right. so far it always proved me wrong. But having said that, lately, the prices seems somewhat stagnated and even some slight drops.

I dont know but GST should increase the prices of property as material cost goes up i guess.

Jan up by 25, seems a bit soon...

http://themalaysianreserve.com/main/news/c...till-1h-of-2015


gunplakk
post Nov 23 2014, 09:00 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 23 2014, 08:58 AM)
facts.. delayed di what.. but good deals still buy.. friends advise, buy before GST or few months after GST , what say you?
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buy if you have to, e.g. need a place to stay but not as an investment tool.
gunplakk
post Nov 23 2014, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 23 2014, 10:22 AM)
Property is illiquid, asking price and transacted price could be a huge difference, and price takes a few years to bottom.

Construction cost I.e materials, labour, subcon profit, etc of typical condo is about rm150 PSF, impact of gst is marginal besides most of these building materials are already paying higher sales tax. If price will goes up because of gst, current asking price will already included the expected increments and up.
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All the more reason to wait it out if you can.... msia could be on the journey to the bottom as you say.

Dunno about the price if reflected GST or not.... but my guess is that people will always take advantage to increase prices of stuff.... if i see roti canai price up, some how or rather there will be knock on effect to everything else. perhaps my view too simplistic and one sided. The looming GST sheds a large cloud of uncertainty on alot of things. Uncertainty translate to risk... and in investment, usually with higher risk you will require higher returns... so buying now, with the added risk, do you expect higher returns? so boils down to your expectations and risk appetite.

for the risk adverse like me, i would side line.
gunplakk
post Nov 23 2014, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 23 2014, 10:46 AM)
Typical development takes 2 to 4 years to VP, developers have already included gst in projects that VP in 2015 and later.

More likely some developers will advertise for no gst price increase after April 2015.
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so if thats the case, we should wait it out.... since the price is reflective of GST. Planned vs Actuals are never the same... Developer price are on planning basis. Therefore, post actual GST implementation, if the actuals were indeed lower, your prices going into 2016 would be lower.
gunplakk
post Nov 23 2014, 04:52 PM

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QUOTE(tnang @ Nov 23 2014, 04:49 PM)
He need to change mindset, many ppl better than us, he is new, but good, he learn
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There will always be many ppl better than us.... however, for generic discussion purposes, i think its safe to generalize and use statistics to make sense of the masses as a whole, vs specific sampling. else there will no end... as the general population is made up of both extremes.
gunplakk
post Nov 23 2014, 05:05 PM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Nov 23 2014, 04:56 PM)
Because he is top earner?
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whats the definition of a top earner by age? for discussion purposes, i sense the ppl here are about 25-28... since if we are talking about 4K a month...

if i were to define a top earner....
a fresh grade - 10K a month...
30 yrs - 20K+
40 yrs - 40K+
Retire -50-60K a month....

now these are in my mind top of the cream, wage earners & corporate rat race ppl, not business man.

These ppl will be able afford decent houses in the Mils.

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