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 Traders Kopitiam! V6

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gark
post Jan 15 2015, 10:23 AM

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QUOTE(zer016 @ Jan 15 2015, 10:21 AM)
Newbie here.. =D if i buy mbsb now, can i get their dividend?
*
Not yet announce leh.. maybe with the next Q report.. tongue.gif
gark
post Jan 15 2015, 10:36 AM

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QUOTE(zDarkForceSz @ Jan 15 2015, 10:33 AM)
MBSB today very hot leh. Next Q report coming out soon right?
*
Next report should be out soon yes?

Hot meh? The price still dropping wor.. at high volume? shakehead.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Jan 15 2015, 10:36 AM
gark
post Jan 15 2015, 10:44 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 15 2015, 10:39 AM)
LOL!

So technical fundamental reply...... as usual. LOL!
I count things much simplified....

Say for holding or buying (this should some sort be my reply for your last statement regarding the ficle market)....

as mentioned in the earlier post.... on why sell...
there IS fundamental change made in the stock.
Stock was fickle/coma/go up and back down etc ect....... cos for one simple reason.
It was not a good stock. (mentioned before) (fanatsic company but lousy stock)
There's no solid driver/player/shark or whatever behind the stock.
It's only small time retailers..... (look at the top 30 shareholders... are you almost in the top 30? hehe)
This is why the stock had been moving so like that few months ago.
This has changed....
Now there is that so-called investor that local stock forum members like to follow....
then there is NOW .... a real fund investing in the stock....
This represents two NEW strong hands holding the stock....
and this is what I call fundamental changes to the stock itself.
The stock is getting (finally) recognized....

Reason to speculate?

1. The US retail market report.... came in poor.....
but one sector shined ..... furniture.
Implication?

2. Earnings report this month.
One fear is.... since the stock moved so strongly from below 80 sen to now.... some might have fear that whatever good news could be priced in.

But with the strong USD for this reporting quarter (one can also read Homer's own currency sensitivity report (page 71 & 73), it's a no brainer that Homer results should be strong....

and even after paying for the upcoming dividend.....

there's still a hell LOT of money left in the bank.....
so much money that  for an investor/speculator, perhaps there is solid justification that perhaps the company WILL reward the shareholders again....

for example, perhaps, Homer will pay a Q1 interim dividend for the first time ever... or maybe even a bonus issue.....
*
Haha I very much agree on what you say... that why i held homer for >1 year already and bought more recently.. laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

The company will not likely have bonus issue... but likely pay more and more dividend as the owners owns a LOT of shares. laugh.gif

This could be a classic wellcall .. which is stock not actively traded.. until... rolleyes.gif

a small under valued company, hit mainstream and funds start to buy in and reports start coming out PLUS increasing dividend?

The rest is history..


But still got risk, those catalyst cannot lift the stock up, in that case just sit back and enjoy the dividend lo.. tongue.gif
gark
post Jan 15 2015, 10:50 AM

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There is a very good arbitrage opportunity in OnG SPAC.. hmm.gif

Some are trading below GUARANTEED value and their dateline is fast approaching.

In the event they cannot find a QA by the speculated time, they will return the guaranteed value to investor. So you can earn the difference.

In the event they found a QA, you can vote NO and get the guaranteed value returned back to you, and earn the difference.

Risk free earnings? hmm.gif Anyone wanna try? tongue.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Jan 15 2015, 10:51 AM
gark
post Jan 15 2015, 11:00 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 15 2015, 10:54 AM)
Don't like such arbitrages.......... LOL!!!

It's simply a waste of time....
and money....

money which could be used in a much better trade.

LOL!

tongue.gif
Have you compared the WHAT IFs since the crash of oil?

compare the different plays....

trying to catch the value play (ie trying to fish for OnG values) .... vs .... say USD IS MY FRIEND plays.....

see the current result?
*
This SPAC arbitrage is betting on high USD, and continue low oil price, like short selling. laugh.gif

Since the crash in oil, we are betting those SPAC cannot get QA.. thus have to return back the guaranteed value to investors.. rclxms.gif

If they can find something, we also vote NO.... whistling.gif

Basically we want the spac to FAIL to realize the Arbitrage. wink.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Jan 15 2015, 11:02 AM
gark
post Jan 15 2015, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 15 2015, 10:56 AM)
Of course la !

And this is a forum...
where everyone gets to voice out their few sen roti canai opinions. laugh.gif
*
Mana pinky punya opinion.. silent jer.. tongue.gif
gark
post Jan 15 2015, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jan 15 2015, 11:57 AM)
I have been monitoring d 3 SPAC but IRR range from 8.4% to 9.1% which is not attractive
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Remember the guaranteed value also accrue interest.. did you factor in your IRR with the accumulated interest rate? tongue.gif
gark
post Jan 15 2015, 12:28 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jan 15 2015, 12:12 PM)
Apa opinion u mau? I already said hold lor tongue.gif
*
Mana analysis? tongue.gif
gark
post Jan 15 2015, 12:29 PM

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QUOTE(johnnyzai89 @ Jan 15 2015, 11:04 AM)
Which SPAC is this ah?
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Almost all SPAC.. tongue.gif
gark
post Jan 15 2015, 03:21 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jan 15 2015, 02:46 PM)
Yup
I factor in 5% ony for ntire 3 yrs
*
I factor in 3% p.a ... like normal FD. wink.gif
gark
post Jan 15 2015, 06:33 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jan 15 2015, 06:08 PM)
Ah Boon pour oil into Homer fire hmm.gif
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Ah Boon must be holding million of shares.. rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Jan 15 2015, 06:33 PM
gark
post Jan 16 2015, 10:24 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 16 2015, 08:28 AM)
Ooh...yeah...and of course there are reasons why I love to play with spiders alone in the corner
*
hmm.gif

Play with spider or pinkspider ? shocking.gif
gark
post Jan 16 2015, 10:57 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jan 16 2015, 10:42 AM)
sweat.gif

Today Japan huge drop...

Unker, can explain what's the reason and implications of Swiss removing Franc cap ar? I actually quite rclxub.gif

My take:
- Previous cap was to stop Franc from strengthening against Euro
- Keep Franc artificially low against Euro, keep Swiss exports competitive
- In order to achieve that, Swiss Bank has to keep selling Franc/buying Euro (?)

And why do they remove the cap now? unsure.gif
*
Swiss maintain the cap last time to prevent the currency from rising too fast, which makes their export not competitive and to STABILIZE the currency. They do that by rapidly printing francs to buy euros. (Something like QE tongue.gif) Also this time, in order to keep printing francs they have to keep their interest rate at NEGATIVE value in order to discourage people from keeping francs, and the spillover of too much francs means loans is very cheap at less than 1% p.a. This makes loans in francs extremely popular.

The cap is removed because swiss had bought too much euro, causing their debt balance sheet is very high suffering fiscal issues. Also they did not imagine stopping the QE like that will kill of euro economy, sort of a miscalculation. wink.gif

Now the cap is removed from francs (QE stop), and the cause the francs to appreciate strongly against euro (40% in ONE day! sweat.gif ). In the mean time strong selling of Euro means is also depreciating strongly against USD. Those who have taken loans from swiss banking to take advantage of the extremely low interest rate, and STABLE currency now have to face a massive debt inflation due to forex loss. This affects mostly eastern european countries with shaky economies. Swiss investor (most massive hedge funs operate from swiss due to banking secrecy law) which is investing abroad is also suffering and pulling back capital as the forex rate loss is too high to bear. Similiarly investors which is invetsed in euro, especially US investors is also pulling back capital at furious rate.

So conclusion..

Swiss QE stop, loans in swiss francs is 40% higher in 1 day, Euro is dumped to redeem francs, Investors in euro markets dumps assets to avoid forex loss. Swiss investor dump assets to avoid forex loss, big banks and companies in eastern europe may face debt repayment problems especially thier loans in francs.

All equal a financial meltdown in Euro.. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Jan 16 2015, 11:03 AM
gark
post Jan 16 2015, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jan 16 2015, 11:02 AM)
but yesterday Euro markets rallied! rclxub.gif
*
The implication is just starting ... wink.gif

All the trades need to be unwinded and the forex market is frozen...no one can buy or sell.. because there is zero liquidity of francs left..

QUOTE
With the franc largely frozen against the euro since the SNB introduced the ceiling, the turmoil may have left some investors with losses so large they could even be forced to close, according to a trader at one bank who asked not to be identified.

Anthony Peters, a broker at Swiss Investment Corp., said firms that were selling options tied to the Swiss franc may be among today’s losers. They would have lost money as volatility surged.

“Selling puts or vol on the franc was deemed to be SNB guaranteed money for old rope,” he wrote in a note to clients today. “There will be some very red faces around as it begins to transpire who should not have been playing that game.


This post has been edited by gark: Jan 16 2015, 11:09 AM
gark
post Jan 16 2015, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jan 16 2015, 11:10 AM)
Good...tomorrow FSM got 0.5% Sales Charge promotion...SC discount + market drop, can top up brows.gif
*
I wont touch euro market for some time until this thing pans out.. euro is gonna start sliding soon... whistling.gif

Lets see bursa implications...

Which company pays royalties in SWISS FRANCS..? brows.gif brows.gif brows.gif
gark
post Jan 16 2015, 12:50 PM

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OnG is trending up nicely... thumbup.gif

Even at low oil prices.. rolleyes.gif
gark
post Jan 16 2015, 01:12 PM

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Swiss franc surprise is beginning to be felt now... tongue.gif

First casualties.. forex brokers... bank run..

IF YOU ARE HOLDING CASH WITH EUROPEAN FOREX BROKERS, PLEASE WITHDRAW THEM IMMEDIATELY!


QUOTE
FXCM Inc., which handled a record $1.4 trillion of trades by individuals last quarter, said clients owe $225 million on their accounts after the Swiss National Bank’s decision to abandon the franc’s cap against the euro roiled global markets.

“Due to unprecedented volatility in EUR/CHF pair after the Swiss National Bank announcement this morning, clients experienced significant losses,” FXCM said in a statement dated Jan. 15. That “generated negative equity balances owed to FXCM of approximately $225 million.”


QUOTE
Deutsche Bank was among dealers to suffer disruptions to electronic trading, with its Autobahn platform temporarily ceasing to provide quotes, according to a dealer from outside the bank. Auckland-based company Global Brokers NZ said the market for francs was disrupted for hours. Global Brokers NZ Ltd. said the impact on its business is forcing it to shut down.

“The majority of clients in a franc position were on the losing side and sustained losses amounting to far greater than their account equity,” Global Brokers NZ director David Johnson said in a statement dated Jan. 15 and posted on the website of affiliated company Excel Markets. Global Brokers NZ said it was experiencing “hundreds of withdrawal requests.” 


This post has been edited by gark: Jan 16 2015, 01:18 PM
gark
post Jan 16 2015, 01:44 PM

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QUOTE(MoneyMaker prince @ Jan 16 2015, 01:43 PM)
Imagine those who short Swiss Franc and did not put a stop loss. They are in deep shxt now...
*
Apparently all the stop loss did not trigger as the market was practically frozen from the votality.. sweat.gif
gark
post Jan 16 2015, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(ahwai @ Jan 16 2015, 02:37 PM)
alot of people died trading EUR/CHF
*
never play leveraged products. nod.gif
gark
post Jan 16 2015, 03:16 PM

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QUOTE(hehe86 @ Jan 16 2015, 03:15 PM)
hmm.gif don't really understand. One cannot die right playing forex? Cause can start trading with 100-200 USD, so if yesterday scenario maximum you lost that money only isn't it?
*
In forex leveraged products you can lose more than your capital... rolleyes.gif

Depends on the leverage, your $200 USD capital can be -$1000 overnight.. laugh.gif

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