hehehe .... buy, hold or sell?





same chart .... add in indicator... LOL!

Why always ask about me? What you think? You think I buy/hold or sell?


The charts...
There are some ''pattern'' traders....
Traders who will trade ''based on/hoping for'' a recurring trend....
you see it clearly on the two charts? LOL!!
ps: this is NOT a 100% sure win thing!


So what are the positives or rather the reason to stay in the trade for the stock?

Is there positive catalyst for a trader to speculate on?

LOL!

So technical fundamental reply...... as usual. LOL!


I count things much simplified....

Say for holding or buying (this should some sort be my reply for your last statement regarding the ficle market)....

as mentioned in the earlier post.... on why sell...
there IS fundamental change made in the stock.
Stock was fickle/coma/go up and back down etc ect....... cos for one simple reason.
It was not a good stock. (mentioned before) (fanatsic company but lousy stock)
There's no solid driver/player/shark or whatever behind the stock.
It's only small time retailers..... (look at the top 30 shareholders... are you almost in the top 30? hehe)
This is why the stock had been moving so like that few months ago.
This has changed....
Now there is that so-called investor that local stock forum members like to follow....
then there is NOW .... a real fund investing in the stock....
This represents two NEW strong hands holding the stock....
and this is what I call fundamental changes to the stock itself.
The stock is getting (finally) recognized....

Reason to speculate?

1. The US retail market report.... came in poor.....
but one sector shined ..... furniture.
Implication?

2. Earnings report this month.
One fear is.... since the stock moved so strongly from below 80 sen to now.... some might have fear that whatever good news could be priced in.

But with the strong USD for this reporting quarter (one can also read Homer's own currency sensitivity report (page 71 & 73), it's a no brainer that Homer results should be strong....

and even after paying for the upcoming dividend.....

there's still a hell LOT of money left in the bank.....
so much money that for an investor/speculator, perhaps there is solid justification that perhaps the company WILL reward the shareholders again....

for example, perhaps, Homer will pay a Q1 interim dividend for the first time ever... or maybe even a bonus issue.....

LOL!

Like I said... many likes to adapt this strategy....
and sometimes it does work... (note: I am not saying anything is wrong with this strategy, and if this works for you all this while, hell, stick to it! )
especially if the stock pulls back...

but sometimes, shit happens...
the stock fly higher and higher....


My personal view?
Never like this strategy...
Tested before...
never does seem to workout too good (FOR ME la)
and this thing....
if I sell half and keep half...
it's like I am telling myself...
I have NO IDEA .... whether to keep or sell.
which means...
it's a guessing game....

again...
note: I am not saying anything is wrong with this strategy, and if this works for you all this while, hell, stick to it!

There's simply too much money in the bank......
Just imagine....
in the upcoming report.....
if the company says it will give out another interim dividend... of 1 sen or more....
how then?

Don't like such arbitrages.......... LOL!!!

It's simply a waste of time....
and money....

money which could be used in a much better trade.

LOL!






Have you compared the WHAT IFs since the crash of oil?

compare the different plays....

trying to catch the value play (ie trying to fish for OnG values) .... vs .... say USD IS MY FRIEND plays.....

see the current result?

Of course la !

And this is a forum...
where everyone gets to voice out their few sen roti canai opinions.

LOL!

ABC soupl fomula all came out!

Speculator mindset thinking....

Last year cash started at 30.7 million.
After paying 9.5 million in dividends (the previous year, it paid out only 6 million), Homer cash STILL managed to increase to 47.517 million.
An increase of 17 million!
Phenomenal !!!

How many other companies can print cash at such a rate?

Is it unreasonable or is wild to speculate for a much better dividend this year?

Would it be possible that Homer pay out at least 8 sen (or more in dividends) this year?

Possible?

Thousand and thousand and more thousand ringgit question....

Would you even buy more?

This is just a simple exercise of what roughly I do.
I don't use no ABCDeF formula to tell me if a stock is good ornot....
If I have to bring out the damn calculator....
It just means....
I am not good enuf for the share.

The reason must be there....
To sit, To whack or To get the Hell out.....

This is what works out best for me.....



*I have no stock tip to share..

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jan 15 2015, 06:43 PM

One of the point made is the need to know the strong hands in the stock.

Previously, in this simple example, the strong hands was basically just the owners.

Other than that there was just some minor investment from some teachers fund.

Fundamentally weak as a stock...which basically explains why the stock was so pathetically weak as a stock.

The emergence of shareholder no 5 represented a consumer fund - which was an extremely good indicator cos it signals the stock finally getting some real significant recognition.

Shareholder no.4 is overblown.

Yes, he is famous and got quite a bit of followers who will blindly buys what he buys... and no matter what ones' opinion of him, it's still a positive change.

The fundamental of the stock (not the company) or the composite of the stock has changed positvely...

In my opinion, as a trader/speculator, these are things one should keep an eye on.
Traders don't trade blindly....do investors?

Ooh...yeah...and of course there are reasons why I love to play with spiders alone in the corner

huh?

struggling to breakthrough meeeeh?




ps:

every transaction got buyer and seller mah.....

if insist... maybe you can refer buy rate.
Friday's buy rate was 61% - up 3 sen
Thursday's buy rate was 53% - up 2 sen
Wednesday's buy rate was 49% - down 1 sen
Tuesday's buy rate was 54% - down 2 sen
Monday's buy rate was 65% - up 10 sen

conclusion?

If think the edge is correct, then better obedient and sell clear stock.

For whatever it's worth..... ..... really whatever....

Buy rate indicates that the traded transaction is done at the SELLERS price.....

is it a good indicator?

is it PE a good indicator?

LOL!

I have no idea.... whatsoever....

************************* ooops double post ***********************

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jan 19 2015, 10:17 AM

See it's no so difficult, isn't it?

Again, it's so proven.... that you simply do not have to rush and chase the stock down....

And currently, also for whatsoever it is worth.....

one would have noted.... that despite oil prices hitting new lows, our local stocks did not.



and oh yeah.... tesco distributed vouchers and have also red CNY paper bags.... barring the theme ...... ONG mali !!!

Last I noted SKPet.... was how much 215? or 216?

Did I buy?

I just talk wind only la....hohoho.....


point is... you do not have to attempt to buy the lowest price to make money....

and coincidentally.....

when attempts to but the lowest price....
they always tend to rush to buy....
and most of the time, they will buy too early...
only to find the stock going much lower .......

and when one rush to sell.....
most of the time....
they will find themselves selling too early....
missing out the big winners....
cursing and cursing.....

remember Inari?
I can't remember who...
but didn't someone sold around 1.20+ ....
thinking it was good gains already?

I have learned not to disclose my trades la...
It is a pointless exercise.....
I see no point in inflating me own ego.

To be a good trader, one needs be humble and respect the market.......





regarding oil....
the biggest concern is .....
the market fundamental has changed....
with petronas scaling back its spending....
how can our oil and gas companies NOT feel the pinch?

and because we do not know the extend of the damages yet.....
we really have no data to work on...
using trailing earnings/past earnings now is suicidal imo.....

and yes..... what about the oil prices remain stagnant around the 60 buck region for a longer time?
how profitable will the companies be then?

Don't agree.

This is nothing to do with roller coaster rides or whatsoever....

It's really all about buying stocks correctly......

what master?

My rule one so simple..... never chase a falling stock down.