all hail apple 118!

So tonight's Facebook turn.. Hmmm seeing some buying here

Watch out... XLE in danger zone again.. Crude getting whacked.

how can not reach 40? teasing for so long already, must go there mah.

$40 will be like 2009 price. Everything collapsed.

Here at $70 still got good support. Wait and see if low 70 can happen not now.. maybe a rare "triple" bottom.

If it fails, next level is at 60-70 range.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jan 29 2015, 04:34 AM

oh, i mean oil at $40.

Oil at $40, just -$4 to go only since WTI is now at $44..

I think it may test there soon.
If falls below $40, it can be devastating..

if it needs a floor, better go there faster, so that the process of stabilizing can start to do their job.

This reminded me there was once I made $30k in 3 days.
I wish I can get back to that 'standard'.
It takes time... I must be patient...

i closed the third trade - short call spread DIA on tuesday.
+$60
good start!!
i have to always remind myself, making $ is not a problem, challenges are cut loss, cut loss, cut loss!!!

The bears are teasing us again.. will it bring SP500 to 1972 and whack it further to 1950?
2000 is the support line to cross tomorrow.

Already 3 big sell off in January.. it looks like a topping pattern for the month here.. doesn't it?

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jan 29 2015, 09:08 AM

there are now a few hundred million bbls floating in tankers, depots etc. will take many months to absorb just that.
and latest i read is marginal wells r actually pumping more now for cash to stay alive.
surely not sustainable but that's the thing going on now. really, no clear signs it'll settle anytime soon.

these 3 selloffs... the result for me = losses in energy/oil offset by gain in aapl, spy n rm exchange rate, so, even!
usd1 = rm3.6375 now.


planning to put a bit more money in apr-may if the oil picture becomes a little clearer then.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 29 2015, 10:01 AM

My reading sees the bull is exhausting and the bear is not strong but just a little stronger, overall looking flat so heading to flat near term. The result of the above seems the bear will take over but not a strong bear (seen yet). Guess 1950 is possible but hard to reach previous low of 1850.

we need a good trigger for stabilization signal, just like what happened when it touch $50, first round of stabilization already happened in past 2 weeks. But more such process is needed before the REAL THING finally comes. So $40 is essential to come as news flow still prefer negative category now. if we go $35 or even close to $30, the 2nd round (or will that be the final round?) stabilization process should be triggered. After that, i guess a long stabilization process (6-12 months?) will be triggered. Just my thoughts.

big oil shell will cut capex by $15b, first to announce, other majors will follow.
there will be a string of shakeouts, m&a, chapter 11, for small oil, oilfield services, logistics and support, etc.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102378480

when all that dies down, that's the signal... 2-3 qtrs, i think.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 29 2015, 07:12 PM

since market moves ahead of real economy, so we are looking at.....1-2 qtrs? while oil price panic has been 2 months+ now? probably just 1 qtr ahead left.....

XLE back to the 3 weeks low... either bounce off here again or collapse under the floor.

market worries on US crude inventory? oil so cheap, why not store more into fridge? china also buy buy buy oil.

They gotta buy a lot of fridges...
US govt SPR wells are at 95% capacity already... it's already near full.

I don't think we can blame US solely for this problem.
US itself doesn't produce enough for it own consumption and its oil exports banned still in place, it just imports less because of
domestic production.

It was the OPEC who doesn't want to cut production for world consumption.

Maybe China can continue to buy buy buy...

yes. therefore buy buy buy china stocks.