my first post in lowyat. devoted to US stock.

anyone has faith in China A Shares?
here is the ETF

ASHR

Deutsche X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF(NYSEARCA:ASHR)

my method:

(a) 100% position on plain (1x) bullish ETF (not those 2x nor 3x nor inverse [bearish] ETF), use it as a tool to replace money market fund.

(b) above will still allow 50% buying power (margin). use it for day trading options.

comments are welcome.

little changes,
perhaps i change my method to:

(a) 90% position on plain (1x) bullish ETF (not those 2x nor 3x nor inverse [bearish] ETF), use it as a tool to replace money market fund. 10% position cash, which my broker will throw into money market fund.

(b) above will still allow 45% buying power (margin from ETF) plus 10% cash totaling 55% buying power. use it for day trading options.

* 10% cash can be served as a good indicator for the performance of day trading. that means if i am losing more than 10% then my cash will become negative which will force me to stay away from market then re-evaluate my day trading techniques.
* since stock market is designed to go up in long term, buy and hold ETF that is significantly undervalued such as ASHR @ 2014.

sounds good? comments are welcome.

if the 10% cut lost point works well in human manual trading, i will improve it as semi-automatic (or pure automatic) algorithmic trading using algo-trader https://code.google.com/p/algo-trader/

ok after talking so much on possible losses, what if making positive cash flow from option trading? i will first pamper myself, if got significant profit (10%) then re-balance my investment fund. i promise i will win some money, cash them out, touch them, show them to my family, and lock them in milo tin!!

sounds cool? comments are welcome.

add on, if loses 10%, force to stay away 3 months. after that, re-balance my investment fund and trade again.

wow, 1 week +33k
admired!!

but this win is not easy.
directional trade.
jan 20 open is higher than jan 16 highest.
that means the first 5 minutes u r losing the put.
only after 10th minutes u r winning.
so jan 20 first 10 minutes u r struggling, am i right?

This post has been edited by dragon178: Jan 21 2015, 11:24 AM

jan 20 part 1 = average down
jan 20 possible part 2A (this is the case, happen most of the time) = trader grab the profit, paying > 10% commission
jan 20 possible part 2B (but it didn't happen, it can happen sometimes) = trader catch the false signal, losses increase, trader has to cut loss.

i personally didn't do part 2B well, refuse to cut loss based on my cut loss point. only after i can do part 2B well, i can become better trader.

i have not been an option buyer for many years.
today i just entered a small trade to buy one put contract on DIA near the last hour of the day.
let's see how it goes...

made my first 3 trades of options in 2015
closed 2 trades, +$200
remaining one trade is favourable now, short call spread DIA, carry over to next week
though all 3 trades were favourable in the end, it did have some struggling points
and yes, risk management make the differences.. position sizing, cut loss point, discipline, no rocket science, all knowledge can be learnt from books.

This reminded me there was once I made $30k in 3 days.
I wish I can get back to that 'standard'.
It takes time... I must be patient...

i closed the third trade - short call spread DIA on tuesday.
+$60
good start!!
i have to always remind myself, making $ is not a problem, challenges are cut loss, cut loss, cut loss!!!

it must be big bucks for today

today i entered wrong position in early day
BTO BABA put
i regretted not BTO BABA call together, make it straddle.. that's later proven 100% profitable
finally i managed to persuade myself to BTO BABA call OTM
that changed my day!!
i STC BABA call at high and use the net profit to BTO BABA put OTM
now i'm holding BABA put waiting BABA to DROP LIKE HELL!!!
well, as an account holder < $25k i only has got 3 bullet and i have used all of them by now.

let me guess
1500 contract
$3 each
that is $450k
so i guess $1 mil will do..

BABA is holding firmly at $91
STC BABA put
+$250 overall for today

This post has been edited by dragon178: Jan 31 2015, 02:19 AM

Day Trade Left

Now I know IB has got this feature, useful for small account below $25k
Ok I will switch back to IB next month

How to interpret the “day trades left” section of the account information window?

For example, if the window reads (0,0,1,2,3), here is how to interpret this information:
If today was Wednesday, the first number within the parenthesis, 0, means that 0-day trades are available on Wednesday. The 2nd number in the parenthesis, 0, means that no day trades are available on Thursday. The 3rd number within the parenthesis, 1, means that on Friday 1-day trade is available. The 4th number within the parenthesis, 2, means that on Monday, if 1-day trade was not used on Friday, and then on Monday, the account would have 2-day trades available. The 5th number within the parenthesis, 3, means that if no day trades were used on either Friday or Monday, then on Tuesday, the account would have 3-day trades available.

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2015 by Nadeem Walayat



Dow Stock Market Forecast 2015 Conclusion

My final conclusion is for the Dow to spend the first half of 2015 in a wide volatile trading range as it continues to unwind the 2014 bull run and sets the scene for the next series of bull runs to new all time highs. I expect the Dow to have started its bull run by early August off of an summer low and then continue into the end of the year, punctuated by an October correction low. I further expect the Dow to be trading well above 19,000 during December 2015 and probably above 19,500, before closing at around Dow 19,150 for a 7.5% gain for the year as illustrated by the following trend forecast graph for 2015.

The bottom line is don't be frightened by first half weakness, yes it may look grim if we see the Dow trading under 16k, but all it would represent is a deeper buying opportunity before the market resolves to above Dow 19k.

My next analysis will probably take an in-depth look at the probable outcome of the May UK General Election, so ensure you remain subscribed to my always free newsletter for this and ongoing detailed analysis and trend forecasts throughout 2015.

Your seventh year stocks bull market analyst.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article49270.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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