i think there is a good chance it will rally a bit more before dropping after sep (summer).

long term... i doubt it'll even get close to $100 for years - there is plenty of shale oil!

i actually think much of the greek drama has been factored in, that's why all that volatility and declines in recent weeks.

a closure on greece, whether capital controls, grexit or new bailout, it will be more certainty for markets - that's good.

what will be bad is a longdrawn tussle, yes-no-yes-no.

there will surely be no payment made on 30th june. but imf can grant extension.

greeks referendum, ecb loans due in july... too far way to read anything.



whatever, next week should see volatility spikes. can be opportunity do fast trades!

one thing i expect is a renewed surge in the usd due to a new round of euro seeking refuge and hence, subdued oil prices.



locally... combine this greek drama with rm and 1mdb dramas, foregone conclusion where it will head.

futures improved since...

djia -225
s&p500 - 28



capital controls... hope greece don't end up like argentina in 2002:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-doomed-to-fail

going to buy some kuih-muih, then i'll hv my good nap too.

yes, if real blood comes out, i'll take some. never mind rm3.788 now.

this greek finale will last a couple of weeks, so gotta be slow n careful...

i think the current gomen rather see grexit, default, f the debts and say bye.
well, that's how they got into power in the first place.

the stickiest part was they do not want to reduce the costly pension plans; lenders insist on that for more loans.
if they default n quit, they will hv to print new currency which will reduce the value of the pensions anyway.
or like in the case of argentina 2002, gomen default, capital controls, seized the pension funds among other things.
i don't see how they can get out of this pension part unscathed.

been watching european and greek tv for the last hr.

eu commission president now talking live, looking to make a "best offer" to greece.

referendum or not, consensus is greece will, despite the months long poker theater, stay with the euro but will give up a couple of things.

so, it may not be that bad by end of the long night!

on greek tv, they keep showing elderly people lining up at atm's, banks closed, long q's at petrol stations. can't tell if it's to say the greek gomen or the eu is hopeless.... as i can only read omega, epsilon and deltas...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jun 29 2015, 07:19 PM

bro, u hit it, already happening.

bond yields dropping, oil price rebound.

bears need to run or get toasted.

bigtime yo-yo, bad for faint hearted.

wanna catch ikan bilis, gotta stay up all night and watch the screen!

looks like the bears will win this round.

bulls are toasted.

i longed a bit too.

hope to wake up to see some ikan bilis!



what's wrong with greece, what might happen soon... this writeup is short and sweet:

he is and will be defiant, as expected since he became pm on that platform.

the referendum is too close to call, can swing either way. well, what about rigging...?

it is obvious imf and ecb have and will be "kind" until july 5.

becos a "no" will mean euro exit, nato exit... and in come the russians which usa will not like.



so, we wait for july 5. for the rest of the week, we will bathe in the fire of volatile markets.

p/s futures up, oil up.

if "yes", si-bras et al will have to make way for caretaker gomen to agree to terms with the creditors.

120 secs to go.

i wanna long!

still play-play...


Greece’s government has asked for a two-year bailout program from the European Stability Mechanism, according to a statement from the office of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.
The request is to cover all of the country’s financial needs for the next two years, along with a debt restructuring plan, the Greek government said in the statment.
The government will continue negotiations seeking a “viable agreement” within the euro zone, it said.

hardball negotiation tactics.

the only thing ze-bras have is "they will suffer immense losses if they don't give in".

the creditors are unlikey to give in becos this will make other poorer eu members like bulgaria very angry.

and portugal, italy, ireland, spain, i.e the rest of the PIIGS will know how to play same hardball when they need to.

so early go to sleep?

this greek drama keeps everyone and everything stuck, indigestion.


but.... oil rallying, ok.

i dun think it will last too.

there was a flash an hr ago saying the iran nuclear talks no result, been extended by a week.

ah, i missed this one. thanks.

hope so!

my uso and uwti looking good now.

but xle and erx not reacting much.... yet.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 1 2015, 01:39 AM