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 Property Bubble & Its Social Impact V13, LYN famous DDD Vs UUU Thread

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icemanfx
post Nov 9 2014, 12:26 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 9 2014, 12:22 PM)
No. It didn't happen before where a small percentage send price tumble.

In fact, it took a major economic crisis to send price tumble - like Asian currency crisis. Even that, property price didn't crash like 50%. More like 10%-20% and recovered pretty fast.

And that is the only time for the last 20-30 years when price of property reduced in malaysia.

Is a major economic crisis looming ?  tongue.gif
Exactly ! I am not worry about price drop at all. In fact, I welcome price reduction. Price drop works in my favour. As you know, I am after rental, not capital gain. So price drop will increase my rental yield.

I predict price increase just because I am being realistic. And being pragmatic. I know that is where the market is heading to

Unlike DDD who wants the market to go in their direction (disregarding the real situation), I follow the flow. Just because I "want" to have higher rental yield, doesn't mean the market will "follow" my "wish". If I die die must wait for the market to "follow my wish", I will never buy properties for the last 20+ years. Be realistic and pragmatic. Your wish does not come true most of the time. 

Having said that, I think after 5-6 years, you are now the one who is very afraid the price is never gonna drop in your lifetime..... sweat.gif
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Guess you missed out a lot of good deal in 1997. First board listing was available for rm5 million. Perhaps you were no body at that time.

Long term equilibrium always prevail.

Unless kV property could defy gravity or miracle, drastic price correction is a matter of when not if.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 9 2014, 12:31 PM
icemanfx
post Nov 9 2014, 12:41 PM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Nov 9 2014, 12:37 PM)
I am dare to say that price will drop drastic after you loss your ice cream job.
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Are you a diabetes?


icemanfx
post Nov 9 2014, 12:52 PM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Nov 9 2014, 12:47 PM)
Are u a economic student?
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Yes, I am a behaviour economic student.

How is your bp and kidney function?
icemanfx
post Nov 9 2014, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(Tigerr @ Nov 9 2014, 12:50 PM)
U should said. "R u a REAL economic student?"
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A student whether real or not is still a student.

QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 9 2014, 12:50 PM)
I am nobody even now. Because showtime747 is just a cyber person  tongue.gif

You can splurt out all those rubbish "equilibrium prevail", "defy gravity", "miracle". But the fact is for malaysian property market, it takes a major economic crisis to bury it. You got to expect wide spread unemployment, business bankruptcies to make your wish come true.

By the time economic crisis happens, you are more worried for your own job then spending time go house shopping.

Good news is, economic crisis is nowhere to be seen. So your job is secured. But bad news for you at the same time. You can keep hoping the price of property to drop  tongue.gif
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It didn't take economic crisis to cause gold price crash; neither it will need economic crisis to casuse kv property price to crash either.
icemanfx
post Nov 9 2014, 02:35 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 9 2014, 01:16 PM)
You dare to say you are a economic student ?  doh.gif

Gold price went up the roof mainly because of USA economic crisis (sub-prime) and subsequent unprecedented QE. It crashed because the US economy recovered and the end of QE.

That's why I always say you DDD guys simply splash out rubbish theory. Just because you wish the property price to come down, you hypnotise yourself to believe prices will come down soon  doh.gif

Talk with facts next time. All your comments without any basis make you look like a fool  tongue.gif
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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 9 2014, 01:19 PM)
Now I can conclude you r not economy student.

Gold price is reversed against economy lah, when economy crisis currency value tumbled people convert cash to gold to fight against devaluation, when economy improved currency value go up, people disposed gold & cash in.

Same thing as Oil when US dollar up Oil price go down & vice versa.

Understand boh ?

Property is different, good time people buy, no good time also people buy, just matter buy more or buy less only, because you need house to lived mah, don't just look at history, now the world economy works quite differently, the biggest economy powerhouse now is China, no more US or Europe, China has a long history of property/land investment, rental game since ancient time, you never see those movie rich fellow own a lot of house & padi fields rent to the poor meh ? Poor will work for whole life but can never own, keep on paying rental till they get chase out when cannot afford rent, you wanna be them or not ?

BTW got choco mint flavour ice cream ah ? I like that flavour.. tongue.gif
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Hope two of you can remember this when we revisit later.

Yes, have chocolate peppermints, double scoops?

icemanfx
post Nov 9 2014, 04:37 PM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Nov 9 2014, 04:17 PM)
BTW ... WHERE IS CLOUDATLA$ AKA FUJIXEROX????
My gay bashing activity must go on without him?  cry.gif
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Before his car park is rented out, he is jaga his car parks.

icemanfx
post Nov 9 2014, 05:45 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 9 2014, 05:09 PM)
Is it "over" leveraged ? I don't think so. I have explained a few time why the consumer property loan is not "over-leveraged" but is caused by innovative loan packages

The rapid expansion of property loan is due to 1 factor --> zero entry + dibs. And this new way of buying property has created new demand that shift the equilibrium to the right. Ie. price increase. The demand comes from 3 new categories of people :
1. Gen Y
Previously, only people with cash equivalent to 15% of property price can buy. So younger generations aged between 22-30 hardly can afford to buy property. They have to save for years. During my time, we (Gen-X) bought our property only around 30 y/o. Even if our salary is RM5k, we can't buy property because there is another barrier --> 15% deposit. We have to save enough only can buy. This takes time.

But with zero entry + DIBS, the developer and banks have made owning property a lot easier for Gen Y. They do not need to save for the 15% deposits. As long as they have a job with good salary, the banks can loan them. This is not possible before. So, a new category of buyers (demand) is "created"
2. Female Gen Y
Previously, there are not many girls get education up to university. Nowadays, girls and boys get to further their studies if they are smart enough. So, together with the zero-entry + DIBS, the female property buyers have become another new category of demand.

Worse, even fresh grad boyfriend+girlfriend suddenly can afford to buy property jointly right out of university age maybe 22-23. That's why we see at the new launching so many young chaps. So, another new category of buyers (demand) is "created"
3. Parents
Previously, Gen-X (35-50 y/o) after buying their first property, they keep their investment in FD (high interest), stock etc. But due to zero entry + DIBS again, these parents find it easy to buy their 2nd/3rd property too. They don't need to start saving the 15% again after the 1st property.

When they see the prices keep increasing, they feel that it is their responsibility to buy for their young children (although they are only <10 y/o now). They thought if they don't buy now, their children are not going to afford. So nowadays, you will see Gen-X own >1 property. For the sake of their children 20 years later. So, yet again another new catetory of buyers is "created".
So here is the important question - are these loans given to the 3 new categories of people vulnerable (ie sub-prime as our student likes to put it) ?

I don't think so. They have the job that pays well and their instalment is affordable as long as they have the job. For Gen Y, they are at the stage of climbing the corporate ladder and their income will only increase fast over time. For those joint name purchase, they can even consider 2nd property after 2-3 years. 

The "culprit" is "zero-entry + DIBS" which allow them to bypass the second hurdle of saving 15% deposits. Before, it was a major hurdle for Gen-X to save the 15% deposit. But not Gen-Y. As a result, the property price increased so "abnormal" for the past few years.
Of course, if economic crisis happens, recession will hit everyone. Borrower who lose jobs will face problem of servicing loan instalment and it will lead to property market downturn eventually.

But do you honestly think economic crisis is coming ?
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If the herd could see economic crisis, there won't be any bull run or formation of herd at the first place.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 9 2014, 05:46 PM
icemanfx
post Nov 9 2014, 05:58 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 9 2014, 05:50 PM)
Another unfounded rubbish 1 liner instead of pointing out what you disagree with my proposition ?

Readers here are more clever than you thought. Your 1 liner just make you look like a fool  brows.gif
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The herd is blinded by greed, they will remain ignorant even in time of crisis.

QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Nov 9 2014, 05:51 PM)
if student part time ice cream boy can talk about economic, zeti lost her job liao.
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Economic student can't talk economic? You look down on ice cream vendor?

icemanfx
post Nov 9 2014, 06:12 PM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Nov 9 2014, 06:02 PM)
student and ice cream vendor don't talk like they are professor but student ice cream boy talk like he is economic professor! doh.gif
you are more like road side fortune teller! tongue.gif
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 9 2014, 06:03 PM)
His posting is always...."enlightening"...ahem I mean "entertaining"  tongue.gif
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We will see who will have the last laugh. Long term equilibrium or the herd.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 9 2014, 06:13 PM
icemanfx
post Nov 9 2014, 06:20 PM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Nov 9 2014, 06:02 PM)
student and ice cream vendor don't talk like they are professor but student ice cream boy talk like he is economic professor! doh.gif
you are more like road side fortune teller! tongue.gif
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Sundae cup say jpy and eur weakening against USD. Good time for holiday in Japan next year.


icemanfx
post Nov 9 2014, 06:36 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Nov 9 2014, 06:21 PM)
As long as thread like this exist, it is unlikely bubble will happen. As long as someone is pulling the break even the bull will be hesitant.
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Given the momentum of bull run in the last few years, a slow down is enough to tip over.

QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Nov 9 2014, 06:30 PM)
MYR also not doing good. unless you have holding in USD  brows.gif
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If commodities (oil and palm oil) price remain low, myr is likely to be weaken further i.e domestic inflation pressure is building up.

The herd are tied down in kV property, not in the position to take advantage of strong USD.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 9 2014, 06:44 PM
icemanfx
post Nov 9 2014, 06:46 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Nov 9 2014, 06:40 PM)
I'm laughing at you too
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If I lose, I will pay for chocolate sundae and if I win, I will pay for double chocolate sundae. If you don't like chocolate, I can change to strawberry.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 9 2014, 06:51 PM
icemanfx
post Nov 9 2014, 07:08 PM

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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Nov 9 2014, 06:24 PM)
rclxm9.gif
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I thought you are going to holiday in Japan end of this year?
icemanfx
post Nov 9 2014, 07:41 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 9 2014, 07:33 PM)
Got grapes flavour or not particularly the sour one... tongue.gif

Don't dream lah ! Even there is price drop for good properties, it would be pick up before you can smells it.
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Could serve you lemon sorbet, double scoop of course. Not sure you will have sentiment to take sour stuffs.

You will be surprised.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 9 2014, 08:23 PM
icemanfx
post Nov 9 2014, 09:07 PM

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QUOTE(Tigerr @ Nov 9 2014, 08:44 PM)
If u can meet up me in japan. I promise I ll buy u a top shasimi dinner in tokyo. The yen has depreciated n I got extra yens now to buy u the dinner. Can come or not?
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If you are sincere, top shashimi dinner could be arranged in kl. Don't need to waste money on air ticket and accommodation.

QUOTE(Tigerr @ Nov 9 2014, 08:50 PM)
I have not tasted sour grape flavor ice cream woh...nice or not? Want to go try some from ice cream boy?
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Could serve you double scoops lemon sorbet. Don't think you will need more sour grape else will put you off grape for life.
icemanfx
post Nov 9 2014, 09:16 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 9 2014, 09:09 PM)
1. How to know you lose or win ?

2. Which year to know you lose or win ?

3. You win or lose also you pay ? You trolling zuiko  thumbup.gif
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Property you bought since 2012 will be under water.

12 months after fed increased interest rate by 3% from current rate.
icemanfx
post Nov 9 2014, 09:18 PM

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QUOTE(Tigerr @ Nov 9 2014, 09:11 PM)
I not sincere. If u want, u got to meet in japan. In malai, not sure u dare to come out or not at the first place.
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Typical hypocrete.

icemanfx
post Nov 10 2014, 08:49 AM

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QUOTE(sheahann @ Nov 9 2014, 10:51 PM)
In the end developer win both UUU and DDD supporter.
Developer keep coming out with new project. With low downpayment and free legal fee. most likely younger generation will opt to buy the new launch project. subsales nowadays hardly make it to be honest.

as for investor, they will also buy on new launch project, investor most likely wont buy subsales(why let the first investor make a profit right?)

in the end developer is the winner.
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Flippers are developers competitors and best customers.

Developers could priced their new launch slightly cheaper than subsale, with low dp, discount will be enough to attract first time buyers and own stay from subsale. Few except those desperate will buy from subsale.

There is a sucker born every minute.


icemanfx
post Nov 10 2014, 09:14 AM

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Taking foulmouth 2k condo as an example. Except students, those who could afford 2k rental per month are likely to qualify for housing loan. With low entry cost, can't see many tenants except negro n arabs around.


icemanfx
post Nov 10 2014, 09:16 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 10 2014, 09:01 AM)
Including the one who sold too early last year, now holding petty amount of money go study, but money burned of quickly no choice but to work part time in ice cream stall earning sesame wages, very low possibility can afford another property in near future, so only hope is for market to collapsed, that is merely a dream which will vanish when the alarm clock ring, so is another day of suffering at ice cream stall..  cry.gif
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KV property may be the only investment option for the herd but not for others.

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