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 Multiple Signs of Malaysia Property Bubble V12, Areas Klang valley & Johor

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Showtime747
post Oct 21 2014, 07:11 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Oct 20 2014, 09:44 PM)
20-30% enough lor... for me.
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Bearbear why you so stupid one. You miss last time to buy at lower price, now price going down a bit you want to buy ? Wait longer.

For eg. In a graph property price index, 0 is lowest price 100 is highest price.

2009 - 50
2011 - 75
2013 - 100
2014 - 95
2015 - 90
2016 - 75
2017 - 50

Why you sohai buy next year ? Now drop only a bit you so fast enter ? Wait until 2016/2017 and see. Like you said, even it increase it will only be a few thousand bucks difference only....

Always remember student say crash will take years to bottom. Dont so kan cheong to buy...
Showtime747
post Oct 21 2014, 12:02 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Oct 21 2014, 07:14 AM)
Boss index in 2017 won't b 50 la. Worst is 85. But I can c 50 in yr 2077. Not sure if bro bear can wait.

If wanna wait til 0 maybe need to inform the kids but oso turn out no such thg.
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I want to convince bearbear 2015 is not a good time to buy.... tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 21 2014, 12:05 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Oct 21 2014, 08:22 AM)
Bro.. why 2013 and 2014 2015 100 95 and 90.. small margin?
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Actually 2014 should remain at 100 because price maintain didn't come down. 2015 only very slight decrease because of GST material price increase so offset the down effect. Then 2016 and 2017 the full effect comes in. So 2015 is the worst time to buy. You will rugi the most if you buy in 2015. Wait till 2017. Because the student said property crash effect takes years to reach bottom
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post Oct 21 2014, 12:08 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Oct 21 2014, 10:21 AM)
It's interesting to see that 6% is spent on marketing by the developer.

So for anybody who is buying a house of 500,000 they are paying 30,000 for the developer to market their house.  doh.gif
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You see those sexy models in property launch ? And lenglui sales exec ? Those are all expensive marketing gimmick which cost money
Showtime747
post Oct 21 2014, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(satrianeo-x @ Oct 21 2014, 10:47 AM)
He said it was currently impossible for developers to earn up to a 30% profit...

Statements like this piss an already pissed off crowd. Just what the heck is this REDHA dept. This is as typical as some ah beng in the market TCSS kind of justification when you ask them to lower price, or give some discounts. Gosh, hopeless PR. Say la something better in a different angle. 30% yea right on paper la. ***!
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When you see bearbear want to sell his plantation land in outskirt kajang for RM700k per acre, you will know how thin is the margin
Showtime747
post Oct 21 2014, 12:12 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Oct 21 2014, 10:05 AM)
Just buy only no burst oso can buy.. yearly still can get 5 to 10% yearly increment despite bullrun is over..
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No more 5% to 10% after yesterday. Burst will start in 2015, and the worst effect is 2017. So, the best timing to buy is 2017. Don't buy in 2015. Tell your gf and in-laws
Showtime747
post Oct 21 2014, 04:11 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Oct 21 2014, 03:41 PM)
rolleyes.gif

Let me show you the correct math with an example.

Mr X is buying a house.
2007: The house costs 500,000. Advertising cost is 2%. Mr X pays 10,000 to the developer to advertise the house.
2014: The same house now costs 1,000,000. Advertising cost 6%. Mr X pays 60,000 to the developer to advertise the house.
Mr X is paying 6 times more for the developer to advertise the house that Mr X buys.
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Businesses don't calculate like that. Selling price is based on supply and demand. If the market price in Mont Kiara is RM1m, it will be RM1m. Whether they spend the 6% or not, they will still sell you RM1m. Because the market price is like that. You cannot ask the developer "hey boss, please don't advertise and you pass back the cost saving of RM60,000 to me, and lower the price to RM940k". If you think you can, next time you buy a Toyota or Iphone, you can try to ask them too tongue.gif

Things don't work that way. Just like fashion, cars, even McD KFC insurance etc. They have to increase the advertisement budget to stay in business. If their competitors are advertising, the one who don't spend on advertisement will be eliminated in business. That is the cruel world of business

Nowadays, developers have to spend on nice show village, big nice roads and entrance, elaborated landscaping along the main road, engage celebrities, models during their launch etc. Show village alone already cost them tens of millions.


Showtime747
post Oct 21 2014, 04:20 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Oct 21 2014, 04:14 PM)
Yeap, and I expect that this is not sustainable and the percentage will come back down.
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Yes. Sustainable or not is again depended on demand and supply. When market is no good, business will think of ways to cut cost, and 1 of them is A&P budget.
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post Oct 21 2014, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(Tigerr @ Oct 21 2014, 12:23 PM)
Knn...u said like that means the land cannot sell till at least 2017.....
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The land ? 50 years later 2067 also cannot sell. Always got court case tongue.gif
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post Oct 21 2014, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Oct 21 2014, 12:34 PM)
Wrong prediction lah, base on 10 years cycle, next down turn should be 2018, but by then even house price never go down also OK for Bear2, because GF cabut liao, probably already mother of 2 marry to a good husband living in a nice house.. rclxms.gif
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Property got drop one meh in history ?

Property will drop only when bearbear buy in 2015. Bottom in 2017 by 50% tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 21 2014, 08:03 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Oct 21 2014, 07:22 PM)
Prody really hardcore in DDD & never feel tired since predict price drop for many years,
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Soon.....
Showtime747
post Oct 22 2014, 08:03 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Oct 21 2014, 08:52 PM)
walao.. totally unrelated to property bubble, deviate so much in trolling manner, comparison son to start...

have you guys clear off or ready to pay installments? they are up soon..

showtime747 always amaze me..assuming this is correct of what you said

For eg. In a graph property price index, 0 is lowest price 100 is highest price.

2009 - 50
2011 - 75
2013 - 100
2014 - 95
2015 - 90
2016 - 75
2017 - 50

i think price will start drop on 2014 & 2015, if not waiting for loss? in 2016 and 2017? you have timed the market drop with precision.. with years and percentage and index
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Yes bearbear, if you expect the price to come down in 2015, that is just the start. It will get lower in 2016, 2017. That is proven by our economics student and his professor. You better believe it.

If you think price will come down next year, dont buy next year. Wait for another two years for the bottom. You can find something at 40-50% discount in 2017. When economy is bad, people will panic and they will just offload and take a loss. That is when the big fat dead chicken appears thumbup.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 22 2014, 08:09 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Oct 21 2014, 09:50 PM)
Jliew, no need to see so far, see our won KV transaction will be enough bench mark to see the property market strength..

the hot selling record in new launch vs sub sales clearly shows that many investors around, demands garnered are nth more for investment..
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Correct ! The market just wait for the first small drop. Then it will trigger the avalanche and domino effect. If you see the market is bad now it will be worse in 2-3 years time. So you should buy in 2017 when the price is lowest
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post Oct 22 2014, 08:18 AM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Oct 22 2014, 08:15 AM)
Boss vely obvious u r giving bro bear an excuse to delay the Q4 2015 buying plan.

It's as gd as lcw finding an excuse for wat he has eaten b4 failing the doping test. sweat.gif
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Alamak. Is it too obvious and fake ? If too obvious, then bearbear wont belip. I will try harder in next post tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 24 2014, 03:45 AM

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Wah only a few days never log in the pages increase so many !

Bearbear, if you think price will start to fall next year, don't buy next year. Let it fall until bottom only buy in 2017.

If you think price will increase, the buy now !

Simple buying logic right ? Don't be a fool to buy at the peak !

Sorry different timezone, won't be logging in much. Whatever you do, remember to enjoy every moment thumbup.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 26 2014, 12:17 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Oct 24 2014, 08:33 AM)
I m buying next year oh.. u can carry on.. bull run over theory resulting 5 to 10% increase is here to stay
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Do you realise your strategy is very funny ? (read : stupid)

If you predict the price will increase next year, buy now

If you predict the price will start to fall next year, then it will fall further and bottom in 1-2 years. Then you shouldn't buy next year. Buy in 2017

Is that very hard to understand ? You are a confused kid tongue.gif


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post Oct 26 2014, 12:24 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Oct 26 2014, 09:58 AM)


well , most of the time, since 650k was transacted (under table ones) , and 550k no takers, maybe they will be selling at 600k but less than 650k and call advertise as (below valuation) or layman say below market rate, fast fast come and buy..


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You blow water and formulate some conspiracy theory to explain why the price so high tongue.gif

If they inflate the price like that, who is going to pay the RPGT for the extra ? If you inflate RM100k for the property, the seller got to pay extra RM30k for RPGT. You think the seller want to pay for nothing ?

You are just trying to justify the property prices are artificially inflated because of a lot of conspiracy going on - banker corrupted, seller/buyer jack up price, flippers call false price etc.

If you think the price is really artificially inflated and bubble will start to burst next year, then why you want to buy at that high price point next year ? doh.gif
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post Oct 26 2014, 12:25 PM

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QUOTE(CloudAtla$ @ Oct 26 2014, 12:18 PM)
The pobem with dis bear is he thought the world is so unfair to him. Blaming all prop investors r flipper jackin up prop price. All developer r con bznez man sellin inflated prop. All uuu here r bad guys try to coax him buying inflated prop. Knn.
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But when he himself is the seller of his 200 acre land and SK new village land, he is the good guy who inflated the price. Double standard tongue.gif
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post Oct 26 2014, 12:30 PM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Oct 26 2014, 12:11 PM)
Thats why say you are sick. Always mix with sick people. Share you only see failure counter. How about public bank, digi, ioi etc? You wan to buy 1 prop but look at whole klang valley to pin point few not so good prop and say that market not good. Like wise for share. More than 1000 counters in klse but you look at those losing money counter and ignore those good one. doh.gif
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thumbup.gif

His mind is full of negatives. Very pessimistic fella. His job is a occupational hazard and greatly affect his life
Showtime747
post Oct 26 2014, 01:33 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Oct 26 2014, 01:08 PM)
there a re a lot of ways to bypass this such as undetertable cash pay but record different S&P price too..

even paying RPPGT does hurt, you got your stock sold and money in pocket.. rather than servicing another year of loan
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Under table means it is not recorded in all black and white documents lah. That means your conspiracy theory cannot work lah.

You weekend talk siao siao one.... rclxub.gif Too much pressure from your gf and in-law....



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