QUOTE(conqu3ror @ Jun 10 2014, 03:52 PM)
now every government is using future money/borrow money by issue bond just to settle the short term financial recovery/avoid bankruptcy. Throwing the ball/rubbish to next generation.
How can government solving/recover the debt and crisis without productivity? The more they borrow just digging a bigger grave.
The bubble just become bigger and bigger. Everyone hopping economic collapse won't happen to them, at least for now. But who can guarantee it never happen? The snow ball just getting bigger till the impact are so great. If it burst, it will be world economic crisis.
All the expect know it will be war, riot and people dying if there is a huge economic collapse. They keep delaying the process. Printing more money, borrow more but the productivity never increase. They never can recover/paid back those debt.
Same thing happen to Malaysia property, in the past 10-20 years, the most we housing loan is 10-20 years. but now, 30-35 years to repay the loan. If our parent borrow for 35 years, mean after they retired, we will need to pays for their debts for many years.
These days many people just keep enjoying and spending the future money. With the mentality of enjoy now worry later. With these mentality the next generation will suffer the most.
It getting worst and worst, only those country with good resources (O&G, Plantation, mineral & etc) will get thru the crisis first. The rest will suffer for very long time. Just like back to stone age.
Of cause no one will want it to happen. But is better to understand and well prepared for it, then sitting, enjoying life like no tomorrow.
Debt can be solved by inflation, this is what was/is happening throughout.
Last time, we bought a bowl of mee at Rm0.20, now become Rm4, the same mee
Last time, borrow Rm20,000, a big deal, now pay back the 20,000 is a small deal.
Finance, refinance, old debt being rolled over, new debt paying old debt. This is what is happening out there.
Banks don't want to collect all the debt back and no new debt issuing.
Same with sovereign bond, bond holders may not want US pay back all the trillion US treasuries.
If there is bubble and not sustainable, crisis happened, happened throughout the history, in fact, almost every decade, there was at least a crisis.
But it is not the end of world, any crisis is just a economy cycle to eliminate what shouldn't be in the first place.
Yes, spending future money may result suffer later on, but I don't think it will send us back to stone age.
For eg.
Whenever I see personal loan is on high demand, I indeed have some worry on consumer bubble, but it doesn't mean I will make a call that predict economy to crash, crisis must be happen due to it.
I will just manage myself financial to prepare any worst outcome may be (in fact in ordinary situation, one should always prepare), but it doesn't mean I everyday hope for it to crash, predict to crash.
As if really confidence it will crash, I will short the market, buy put option to protect myself or take advantage against the crisis. So I wonder is there any economist that can accurate predict any crisis one is doing it (short the market)?