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 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market V6, Signs are already there in Malaysia

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cherroy
post May 31 2014, 11:56 PM

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QUOTE(Maneki-neko @ May 31 2014, 07:20 PM)
Hi cherroy, mind to share in more detail about the disadvantages of having joint name (especially husband and wife) for one property?
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1. Dispute time, or divorce time, either one party refuse to sell, deadlock situation.
Sometimes, you never know how future will be regarding the relationship issue.

2. Joint name, either party died, still need to serve the loan, while if single name with MLTA, insurance cover the rest of installment, don't need to service the loan anymore, and property belonged to family based on estate law or will.

cherroy
post Jun 3 2014, 08:59 PM

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QUOTE(Sesshoumaru @ Jun 3 2014, 08:03 PM)
Sorry I've got to correct you on some facts so people don't run around with the wrong idea.

Comparing UST10Y against Malaysia's OPR is incorrect. Apples and oranges, what you should be comparing with is UST10Y against MGS10Y, which prior to the Sep-Nov 2008 period, was approximately UST10Y 4% as you mentioned, but the MGS10Y was 5%.

OPR then, was 3.5% before a 1.5% dip over 6 months.
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Thank you for the correction. smile.gif

Previous discussion was about capital may flight from Malaysia if US 10 years goes beyond 4%, which I mentioned that there was no capital flight prior before 2008 when US 10 years was more than 4%.
Now MGS is about 4.x%.

Even if MGS surge to 5% when US 10 years become 4% time (just like prior before 2008), it doesn't means there must be massive capital flight as well, when there is no serious capital flight there is no pressure on OPR from currency exchange pov.

We simply cannot predict what will happen in the future.
US 10 years supposely to go up when tapering taking place based on theory, as many predicted and expected, but it doesn't materialise, instead yield goes lower to 2.5% from nearly 3% when tapering started to take place time.

Japan was also classic example, prior before recently year massive QE that drive down the Yen, Yen was surging non-stop.
JP 10 years was at super low yield, zero interest rate, public debt more than GDP (around 200%), in theory and based on acedemic, Yen should be plunging instead Yen was still surging until BOJ needed to intervene to prevent the Yen rising too much.

So there are plenty of other factors affecting the dynamic of financial market, which we cannot rely solely on simple academic and theory that already can conclude one.
cherroy
post Jun 3 2014, 10:02 PM

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QUOTE(Sesshoumaru @ Jun 3 2014, 09:37 PM)
I don't disagree with you, so notice the correction only on the data. But since we are at it, I might as well give a little more detail above on why certain things happened as mentioned.
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Not to disagree on your view/comment, smile.gif but we have been negative real interest rate for many years already, while I also not "happy" to see such situation, but there was little "measure" being taken to tackle to real negative interest rate situation.

Yes, inflationary pressure is on OPR to be raised, but I don't see how OPR can be raised significantly, as it may affect economy if there is too much hike in rate.
So I don't see OPR being raised more than 0.25%~0.5% in the coming future.
Furthermore with GST being introduced next year, which may dampen the economy growth due to one off inflation, BNM may not want to hike too much as well before GST kicking in and aftermath effect of GST.
cherroy
post Jun 4 2014, 10:41 AM

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QUOTE(Sesshoumaru @ Jun 3 2014, 10:16 PM)
I do not believe that negative real interest rate has been existing for many years, on and off yes, but to say its something that persists throughout the previous years is something that needs to be substantiated.

As real interest rates is not something traded, I have to rely on some google-ed data.

http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Malaysia/Real_interest_rate/
http://www.factfish.com/statistic-country/...l+interest+rate
http://www.quandl.com/WORLDBANK/MYS_FR_INR...l-interest-rate

The point to be made here however is that the deeper it goes into the negative zone, the more pressured BNM will be.

Also, your view is pretty much in line with most would expect in the market. No one is expecting a 100 bps increase, nah.
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QUOTE
The chart quoted the real interest rate is

Real interest rate is the lending interest rate adjusted for inflation as measured by the GDP deflator.
Real interest rate (%)


This real interest rate of lending rate vs CPI, mostly is not interested for personal saver.

For personal, the real interest rate, they interested is OPR/FD rate that can offered to counter inflation rate, which inflation rate based on CPI has been around 2-3% or more for the past few year apart from crisis hit year like 2008~2010, while we know OPR was around 2.5~3%.
While the real inflation rate many ordinary suffer or experience may generally more than 3%.

So this is where I said saver has been getting real negative interest rate, as every cent they saved, they lost through inflation due to real negative interest rate.

The chart/data may be true in academic, but for personal it is irrelevant, 2012 real positive interest rate of 4% may be true, which never felt by personal nor most personal feel the 4% is 'real'.

Even the 4% real interest rate (lending rate - CPI), but we knew mortgages rate out there was around 4~5% only, so I don't know how the 4% is derived even it may be true.

So there may be disjointed between academic/theory data vs what ordinary people out that actually experiencing/suffering.

Inflation rate based on CPI 2~3% sound good, manageable, little pressure for ordinary people out there, but in reality, it may not. smile.gif

About the potential rising rate, yes, little expect more than 100bps hike, but there was some "hu-ha" about the potential rate hike around, that's why I raised the issue that it is unlikely rate to be raised significantly.




cherroy
post Jun 4 2014, 10:50 AM

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QUOTE(kradun @ Jun 3 2014, 10:21 PM)
This 1 is too bull.

http://www.starproperty.my/index.php/artic...perty-prices-2/

"In a nutshell, given the above GST outcomes for the supply of residential and commercial properties, we can almost be sure that the chances of property prices coming down in the near future should be close to zero."
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Yes, GST highly may send the cost higher across, that pressure the price to be upwards, but can't straight away conclude like it must. It is a big call for the bolded part.

Property price is largely depended on economy situation.
If GST sends the economy into snail pace economy growth or recession, property price may also fall despite rising in cost of building materials due to GST.

Rising cost of materials may put a floor price on an items/property, whereby it become non-profitable for developer to build, but it doesn't guarantee selling price won't fall, as there is profit margin to be squeezed on.

Eg.
Prior before GST
Cost price 400k, currently selling price 500K (25% profit margin, which is quite norm),

After GST
Cost price become 420K, but selling price can become 480K.

Also, if economy run into snail pace or problem, there may be some fire-sale as well that drag the property price down as well.


cherroy
post Jun 4 2014, 01:00 PM

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QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Jun 4 2014, 12:43 PM)
Wait a second, where are all the insults and personal attacks? People actually discussing the issues? Am I still in LYN?

Humour aside...
Japan's public debt is not the same as Greece's, as the debt is mostly long term, denominated in Yen which their central bank can print, and held by domestic investors. Malaysia's public debt is similar, except that a large proportion (~45%) is held by foreign investors. Zero interest is fine when the currency is expected to appreciate and domestic prices are expected to deflate.

At the same time, the Yen is probably the most traded currency after the USD and the Euro. In the wake of a possible global depression involving the US, Eurozone and Britain back in 2008/2009, there is a flight to safety, and safe haven currencies like the Swiss Franc, Singapore Dollar and Japanese Yen had demand in excess of what their fundamentals required. Singapore, which manages its currency tightly, did not experience a sudden surge due to Central Bank intervention, but instead was forced to deal with real negative interest rates.
We haven't had negative interest rates as far as I can tell. What's of note is that the MYR appreciated ~20-30% between 2008 and 2013, and this has drastically suppressed the cost of imports, keeping inflation low. While you may feel the side effects of real estate inflation creeping into the costs of food and services, the higher MYR has allowed the government to, inter alia, keep oil and energy prices under control, and we have enjoyed lower prices for technology related products.

The recent depreciation of the MYR has reversed that trend, and inflation is now becoming an issue. BNM doesn't want to increase OPR, and is actually spending billions stabilising the ringgit in lieu of raising interest rates to compensate.

We do have a lot of reserves, but reserves won't last forever.
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That's why I said, even the data is the same (high public debt), the dynamic of the market (Japan & Yen situation) may not the same, hence outcome is not the same as Greece.
There are plenty of factor, inside issue that influencing. cheers.gif

Real estate cost, foods, services (due to min wages) has affected a lot on individual.
The data may not show real negative interest rate only on and off, but on personal front it may. smile.gif
The 3% interest saver getting is not enough to coup the inflation.
cherroy
post Jun 7 2014, 05:49 PM

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QUOTE(starbucks_2008 @ Jun 7 2014, 12:02 PM)
With GST, by right employer will increase salary?

How true property price will not go up anymore?
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I am more worry of payrise freeze in 2015 due to GST implementation.
GST may affect employer in term

1. Admin cost rising, reduce profit.

2. Cashflow problem for some employer as GST needed to remit within a month time, while for some business, credit term 60/90 days is norm, so before the employer getting payment from customer, they need to remit the GST amount first. So those with tight cashflow business may be stressed.

3. Higher material cost, reduce profit margin, this particular true for those with SST, as there are many items without sales tax currently that may incur GST when GST implemented.

4. Slowdown in economy as business may drop due to one off inflation, that dampen the consumer purchasing will/power.

Those business with its product with 10% sales tax currently may benefit from GST when GST replacing SST,
but not for those business that without SST currently, that incur GST after it is implemented.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 7 2014, 05:51 PM
cherroy
post Jun 8 2014, 05:40 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 8 2014, 01:16 PM)
Those who bought in 2009 were lucky.

In economic,  there is no free money. Any excessive profit without barrier of entry will be eliminated by new supply.

Have sales of c class and 3 series increase in the last few years?

Historically,  super bull run will end in massive crash.
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I would rather congratulate them, instead saying they were lucky. smile.gif

If they were considered lucky by making money through property investment, then we have tons of lucky people in stock market, bond market as well.
Like that, we really have lot of lucky person out there....

In reality it took plenty of courage to invest during 2009, the aftermath of 2008 global financial crisis.

To make an investment during 2009 is 10x harder than to make investment in 2014.
It is more difficult to invest during "cheap" time vs "expensive" time.

The lucky one to make money may be the one invest this year instead those invested during 2009.
But in real fact, I won't say they are lucky either. They took the risk, they bare the risk, and get the loss/profit afterwards.

As said many time, boom and burst is part of economy cycle, this is nothing new.

If the crash is indeed imminent by the prediction, I think it is a best interest to realise the crash prediction into real $ by shorting the market.
One can make a lifetime fortune through the accurate crash prediction.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 8 2014, 05:41 PM
cherroy
post Jun 9 2014, 03:03 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 9 2014, 02:13 PM)
My learning is nothing creative but traditional and conventional. Unless i read it wrongly,  economic theory is certain to withstand.

Until punters have cash in their bank account,  it is too early to laugh. Very often, those who laugh at others are been laughed at the end.
Most flippers' units have yet to be vp. As long as they could repay minimum on their credit cards, there is no stopping for them to spend their future gain.
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Economy theory is not physics or maths, they don't have fixed mathematics equation to derive the result.
Every boom and burst come in different kind of equation, never the same.

Whether those punters/flippers being laughed afterwards or not, I cannot find a reason why should one care actually?



cherroy
post Jun 10 2014, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 10 2014, 08:14 AM)
The rise of mys property price from 2008 is not supported by corresponding rise in income but purely due to speculation. The last thing politicians want is to dampen "feel good" even though the "feel good" factor could cause market collapse later. Hence, couldn't relied to cool down run away bull run.

A healthy u.s, e.u and china ecnomy means interest rate back to traditional range is inevictable.
Why must a person limits his investment options only to property and bank fd in mys?
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I also agreed previous few years rise has due to a lot of speculation, but at the same time, we have income growth across.

It is almost impossible to have someone work on 2008, after 6 years, did not get payrise at least 20~50% in this 6 years time, somemore we had min wages introduced last year that drive up the wages level especially at low level one.

The rise of property price since 2008 has several factors
1. Low interest rate
2. QE
3. Inflation, people worry about negative real interest rate, hence flocking to hard asset
4. Rise in income, including public sector also get decent payrise in the last few years since 2008. Good bonuses for finance sector and O&G sector etc.

It is not solely on speculation alone.
Yes, speculation did make it "hot" that rise of 100% in 3-4 years which is not something sustainable throughout, but there are fundamental factors that support the property price rise behind as well.



cherroy
post Jun 10 2014, 11:14 AM

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QUOTE(conqu3ror @ Jun 9 2014, 11:17 PM)
You were right market is hard to predict. But when you are the big player, you rather controlling it then predicting it.

During 1997 crisis, housing are not the target, cause the interest rate are so high, 8-10% if I'm not mistake. But shop lot and shopping mall lot are targeted for rental & resell profit. Sad to tell, my cousin and my dad are one of the victim in these property. Many friends and relative all victim in shared market.

During 2008, it doesn't hit the property hard, but share market had hit hard enough. But now the same scenario happen again to 1997, just different target.

Market can never go up forever, during 2008 some US fellow keep shouting this time is different, property will keep growing. Sadly, same thing happen to Malaysia, every one shouting UUU, properties will rather stagnant then drop.

I will rather market correction/drop as early as possible, then the bubble/market keep growing. Cause the bigger the bubble grow, the bigger the economic impact.

As everyone said, if market so easy to predict, I had become millionaire. So I could be wrong as well.
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Yes, if the property price keep on going 100% rise in 3 years, potential big bubble lead to big burst, but it is hard to predict what will happen on property from now on to next few year, it could be no rise at all, correction taking place, plunged or whatever.

Prediction has been made since 2008
1. Property bubble burst (after global financial crisis), it did not happen, instead rise 100% since then (for some property)
2. Property sector is going to have tough time with Euro debt crisis, it did not happen.
3. China slow down lead to major slowdown in worldwide economy in 2012~2013, hence affect property price, it did not happen.

While someone with bubble burst prediction and only wait to buy after bubble burst on 2008, the property has risen more than 100%, even the bubble did burst 2014 or 2015, price crashed 50%, it is just back to 2008, no different with someone bought during 2008.
cherroy
post Jun 10 2014, 11:16 AM

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QUOTE(gogo2 @ Jun 10 2014, 11:08 AM)
I think 2011 to 2014 is driven purely by DIBS.
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I agreed from 2011 to 2014, rise has a lot to do with speculation, but I do not agree the rise from 2008 is because of speculation.

2008~2010 was the aftermath global financial crisis, generally people are more scared to make huge speculation just after a major crisis, as many may be hit hard by the crisis as well.
cherroy
post Jun 10 2014, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 10 2014, 01:42 AM)
Those who understand economic  is likely to exit while flippers are head over heels and unlikely to join flippers.

Unlike stock and commodities,  property is illiquid and supply take years to adjust. Hence, impact will be drastic and prolonged like its bull run.

Before 1997 crisis, every stock punters and obasans were awared of impending crash but few took action to convert to hard cash fearing super bull run to continue; even more so for flippers.
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Sorry cannot agree on this statement, I was in stock market during that time, if stock punters aware of impending crash, they won't be called stock punters, those aware of crisis one should be economist, not punter or flipper. tongue.gif
cherroy
post Jun 10 2014, 02:51 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 10 2014, 11:42 AM)
Believe 1997 crisis hit Thailand about 2 months before mys. Few punters exit the market believing klse was resilient, gomen won't permit crisis to come before the Commonwealth games and a drop in price was too good not to pick up.
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You don't know you are at the peak until you roll down.

You don't know how deep the hole until fall into it.

It is easy to look back 1997 crisis, this result this and that,
look back 2008 subprime, see, I told you subprime is bad etc.

But when one actually in it and the outcome is not known yet, you never know how serious the crisis will be, or crisis won't as big or what will be the outcome.

Look at how media and analyst said how bad the Euro crisis, and little economist can give proper solution to solve it.
But now Euro stock market at all time high, Euro stay at elevated level, the Euro debt crisis seems like never happen before.

See how media said how bad China property bubble, how serious shadow banking could be, but after so many years, still little thing happen, life goes on, economy growth still at robust rate.

So when Thailand Baht being hit by international speculators at starting point time, it could be just a hiccup.
Little punters or people expect a crisis was brewing.

Previous statement claim central bankers are economists that have the ability to know crisis ahead, why they fail to acknowledge the 1997 crisis before it exploded?
If those economist central bankers knew ahead, they should shut the door against the currency speculator, and crisis averted in the first place, then we won't have 1997 crisis.
cherroy
post Jun 10 2014, 03:14 PM

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QUOTE(gogo2 @ Jun 10 2014, 03:01 PM)
No need to pity. Come join me.
Yalor.. sad.gif
Seems like you're saying we don't know how huge the bubble FED and all bank in the world is creating. Once popped, this will be the most massive financial disaster ever made?  blink.gif You sure or not?  icon_question.gif
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If I have crystal ball to know there is bubble created by Fed, and will pop one day, I will short the market, instead interested to post a statement afterwards, I told you so, or see, xyz economy theory said so.

I will buy put option, put warrant, short the index massively.

Time exactly, predict exactly when bubble pop? It is as easy as guessing a lottery number.
But may be economist has the ability to predict it, which I ordinary person do not have. tongue.gif

cherroy
post Jun 10 2014, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 10 2014, 03:20 PM)
Few if any politicians would curtail public feel good factor even if it could lead to disaster later, and central bankers won't want to be seen the person to derail economy expansion. Hence, bubble is assured from time to time.
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First said economists got ability to predict bubble.
Then second statement, don't want to be seen the person to derail economy expansion.

In the end of day, nothing is done, so what's for ability to predict then.

It is like saying to my boss.

I: I have the ability to make the company profit double due to my prediction ability.
Boss : Good, go ahead the project.

Then tomorrow
I: I don't want to be seen as bad person in the company, as my project make other employee loss of feel good factor. So I cannot carry out the project.

Boss : .....
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

cherroy
post Jun 10 2014, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(conqu3ror @ Jun 10 2014, 03:52 PM)
now every government is using future money/borrow money by issue bond just to settle the short term financial recovery/avoid bankruptcy. Throwing the ball/rubbish to next generation.

How can government solving/recover the debt and crisis without productivity? The more they borrow just digging a bigger grave.

The bubble just become bigger and bigger. Everyone hopping economic collapse won't happen to them, at least for now. But who can guarantee it never happen? The snow ball just getting bigger till the impact are so great. If it burst, it will be world economic crisis.

All the expect know it will be war, riot and people dying if there is a huge economic collapse. They keep delaying the process. Printing more money, borrow more but the productivity never increase. They never can recover/paid back those debt.

Same thing happen to Malaysia property, in the past 10-20 years, the most we housing loan is 10-20 years. but now, 30-35 years to repay the loan. If our parent borrow for 35 years, mean after they retired, we will need to pays for their debts for many years.

These days many people just keep enjoying and spending the future money. With the mentality of enjoy now worry later. With these mentality the next generation will suffer the most.

It getting worst and worst, only those country with good resources (O&G, Plantation, mineral & etc) will get thru the crisis first. The rest will suffer for very long time. Just like back to stone age.

Of cause no one will want it to happen. But is better to understand and well prepared for it, then sitting, enjoying life like no tomorrow.
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Debt can be solved by inflation, this is what was/is happening throughout.
Last time, we bought a bowl of mee at Rm0.20, now become Rm4, the same mee
Last time, borrow Rm20,000, a big deal, now pay back the 20,000 is a small deal.

Finance, refinance, old debt being rolled over, new debt paying old debt. This is what is happening out there.
Banks don't want to collect all the debt back and no new debt issuing.
Same with sovereign bond, bond holders may not want US pay back all the trillion US treasuries.

If there is bubble and not sustainable, crisis happened, happened throughout the history, in fact, almost every decade, there was at least a crisis.
But it is not the end of world, any crisis is just a economy cycle to eliminate what shouldn't be in the first place.

Yes, spending future money may result suffer later on, but I don't think it will send us back to stone age. tongue.gif
For eg.
Whenever I see personal loan is on high demand, I indeed have some worry on consumer bubble, but it doesn't mean I will make a call that predict economy to crash, crisis must be happen due to it.

I will just manage myself financial to prepare any worst outcome may be (in fact in ordinary situation, one should always prepare), but it doesn't mean I everyday hope for it to crash, predict to crash.

As if really confidence it will crash, I will short the market, buy put option to protect myself or take advantage against the crisis. So I wonder is there any economist that can accurate predict any crisis one is doing it (short the market)?

cherroy
post Jun 10 2014, 04:15 PM

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QUOTE(gogo2 @ Jun 10 2014, 04:07 PM)
Very upbeat sentiment.
*
Based on economy theory, crash is impending for stock market... whistling.gif

We have big bull on stock market, rising more than 100~150% since 2008.
DJ, S&P, DAX, all time high...

Even KLCI.
cherroy
post Jun 10 2014, 04:48 PM

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QUOTE(gogo2 @ Jun 10 2014, 04:23 PM)
According to the video about Bank, debt is creating inflation. Not the other way round. Unless i understand it wrongly. Haha...
I'm not sure why he said no bubble. I think everyone should agree there's a bubble. Just that bubble won't pop.  rclxms.gif
Not so according to this:-

http://www.malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/20...legs-still.html

Why The Bulls Got Legs (Still)
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I don't remember I ever posted inflation creating debt.
I just said inflation can solve debt problem.

Ok, debt create inflation, but inflation can solve debt problem.
How nice the loop.






cherroy
post Jun 11 2014, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 11 2014, 07:42 AM)
Understand risk doesn't mean pessimistic. When risk is high and still insist to bet is not dissimilar to gambling.
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Yes, I would agree on this.
Currently invest in property has way higher risk than 2008~2010.

But since previous statement considered those invested during 2008 are lucky, then indirectly indicated 2008 also has high risk.

2014, high risk, impending bubble
2011, high risk, Euro Debt crisis
2008, high risk, global financial crisis, bank might collapse
2006~2007, high risk, rising inflation and rising interest rate.
2002~2003, high risk, aftermath 911, economy sluggish
2000, high risk, aftermath of dotcom bubble, economy slowdown
1998, high risk, economy recession.

Understand risk, yes good to have, but everyday calling for impending bubble bursting, price to crash is not a risk management.
Unless one is shorting the market, and have ton of put option/derivatives, then everyday dream of crash is like dreaming hitting lottery, then it is different story. tongue.gif

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