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 Bursa Traders V5

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wenqing
post May 21 2014, 08:57 PM

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QUOTE(lynetnonyma @ May 21 2014, 08:53 PM)
So, it was you. Hmmm.... any more tips like that?  Hahah... don't tell Boon3 I asked...
*
Hahaha.I come here to ask tips but at the end getting ask by others for tips?? biggrin.gif biggrin.gif
TSBoon3
post May 21 2014, 09:00 PM

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QUOTE(lynetnonyma @ May 21 2014, 08:53 PM)
So, it was you. Hmmm.... any more tips like that?  Hahah... don't tell Boon3 I asked...
laugh.gif



I cannot see one.




lynetnonyma
post May 21 2014, 09:03 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 21 2014, 08:42 PM)
Ok.. from past experiences...

I have noted that the market tends to get nervous when the profit 'growth' extends more than 3 years...
this is cos.... I think... they are taught that growth doesn't last forever....
so after 3 years or so, they then pay attention to rate of profit growth...
once it slows, as per your example, they won't get so gung ho over the stock....
in fact... they usually get edgy....  sweat.gif  sweat.gif  sweat.gif
*
But would that not depend on the figures? For example, what if it is like this.

2010 100m
2011 200m (100%)
2012 380m (90%)
2013 684m (80%)

Although percentage decreasing every year, the dollar value is very much increased. In 4 years, profit increased by 584m in total. Every year you make more dollar-wise than the previous year profit. I gues it depends on the numbers?

wenqing
post May 21 2014, 09:04 PM

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QUOTE(lynetnonyma @ May 21 2014, 09:03 PM)
But would that not depend on the figures? For example, what if it is like this.

2010 100m
2011 200m (100%)
2012 380m (90%)
2013 684m (80%)

Although percentage decreasing every year, the dollar value is very much increased. In 4 years, profit increased by 584m in total. Every year you make more dollar-wise than the previous year profit. I gues it depends on the numbers?
*
Wah.What stock is that?? tell me tell me. drool.gif drool.gif
lynetnonyma
post May 21 2014, 09:05 PM

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QUOTE(wenqing @ May 21 2014, 09:04 PM)
Wah.What stock is that?? tell me tell me. drool.gif  drool.gif
*
The stock code is 3333 BOON3....
Its just example only. Not real.


This post has been edited by lynetnonyma: May 21 2014, 09:06 PM
twhong_91
post May 21 2014, 09:06 PM

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From: Bolehland



QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 21 2014, 08:42 PM)
Ok.. from past experiences...

I have noted that the market tends to get nervous when the profit 'growth' extends more than 3 years...
this is cos.... I think... they are taught that growth doesn't last forever....
so after 3 years or so, they then pay attention to rate of profit growth...
once it slows, as per your example, they won't get so gung ho over the stock....
in fact... they usually get edgy....  sweat.gif  sweat.gif  sweat.gif
*
What do u mean by gung-ho? Lol... Must be something bad huh. Does it mean that the investors would dump this stock and look for other stocks that have higher growth rate? Omg... blink.gif
TSBoon3
post May 21 2014, 09:12 PM

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QUOTE(lynetnonyma @ May 21 2014, 09:03 PM)
But would that not depend on the figures? For example, what if it is like this.

2010 100m
2011 200m (100%)
2012 380m (90%)
2013 684m (80%)

Although percentage decreasing every year, the dollar value is very much increased. In 4 years, profit increased by 584m in total. Every year you make more dollar-wise than the previous year profit. I gues it depends on the numbers?
*
laugh.gif

For such numbers, they will close eyes laaa.....
TSBoon3
post May 21 2014, 09:13 PM

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QUOTE(twhong_91 @ May 21 2014, 09:06 PM)
What do u mean by gung-ho? Lol... Must be something bad huh. Does it mean that the investors would dump this stock and look for other stocks that have higher growth rate? Omg...  blink.gif
*
Err..... sweat.gif sweat.gif sweat.gif

gung ho .... err .... means ........optimistic....

edgy...... err...... means ........ nervous.

ok ah?
lynetnonyma
post May 21 2014, 09:16 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 21 2014, 09:12 PM)
laugh.gif

For such numbers, they will close eyes laaa.....
*
Ok. See I read what you write. I ask question. Now, where is the stock tip?? Hahahah.... just kidding Boon3.
Hope you are having a nice evening.


twhong_91
post May 21 2014, 09:20 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 21 2014, 09:13 PM)
Err.....  sweat.gif  sweat.gif  sweat.gif

gung ho .... err .... means ........optimistic....

edgy...... err...... means ........ nervous.

ok ah?
*
Haha... Ya I understand better now. So they are getting nervous now. What do u recommend boon? Now is paper loss 11% cry.gif thinking to top up but after u comment like this I also nervous Liao lo. Maybe should wait for the next quarter report.
TSBoon3
post May 22 2014, 08:05 AM

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QUOTE(TakoC @ May 21 2014, 08:34 PM)
They did mentioned in their quarter result that their average price dropped despite the volume increased.
*
tongue.gif

as stated, they will be adding 9 new aircraft.

Implication is pretty damming....

They are actually doing more business (ie more flights, which equals more passengers) but their revenue is not increasing.

Their selling price (of their tickets) has gone down....
This means only one thing!!
Intense competition!!!!
The adding of 9 new aircraft next quarter would means more future borrowings (borrowings is already 10.4 billion)(there will be sale of old planes to help lessen burden)...
net debts increasing....
finance cost increasing....
and cash is burning...... fast.!

Again this is would be a good example WHY one cannot place observations over actual numbers.

We go LCT or we fly AirAsia itself...
We see MORE passengers....

and from those simple observation, we assume profits should be better.
Simple and normal deduction...
more passenger should equal more revenue and more revenue should equal more profit.

the numbers compared to same period last year.

Malaysian operations. Passengers increased by 4%. Operating Profit decreased from 250 million to 220 million.
Thailand operations. Passengers increased by 22%. Operating Profit decreased from 930 million to 330 million.
Indonesian operations. Passengers increased by 22%. Operating profit of 41 million turned to operating loss of 390 million!!!

( For Indonesia: AirAsia mentioned the following:
"However, as the Group‟s interest in Indonesia AirAsia has been reduced to zero any profits will only be recognized when a total of RM281.0 million of unrecognized losses have been reversed".)


...... see how the actual numbers tell a much different story than observation?


... and the stock is flying!!!

laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

... and most of research houses is calling a BUY!

laugh.gif



wenqing
post May 22 2014, 09:15 AM

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Homeriz wan fly liao.....
lambethwalk
post May 22 2014, 09:17 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 21 2014, 08:25 PM)
AirAsia trading idea was actually tricky.

A trade would have actually been more justified by the chart than the 'observation' (stated earlier).

Although profit result showed 'big' increase, I felt that the earnings was very distorted by a huge forex gains ( I am shocked and amazed that it was a 'gain').

Leaving that out, the profits was deteriorating badly.

One thing about AirAsia, they give a lot of info in their profit announcement (kudos to them) but if we take the time and read it, we can see a big and serious problem.

We all know their revenue is flat - y-y
but consider these facts...

Malaysia operations. Aircraft fleet increased from 66 to 72 (9%) Number of Flights increased 1%
Thailand operations. Aircraft fleet increased from 28 to 37 (32%) Number of Flights increased 31%
Indonesian operations. Aircraft fleet increased from 22 to 30 (36%) Number of Flights increased 19%

Can get the simple implication?
Aircraft increased, number of flights increased but revenue flat.  sweat.gif  sweat.gif  sweat.gif

Terrible.

Ben? Remember what you said about what GUH was doing (compared to Parkson) ?
Remember? tongue.gif

Things now (TODAY) have changed some what....  sweat.gif
Last buyback announced was done on 14/5
TODAY's announcement probably might leave traders with mixed feeling...
Company announced many ESOS shares being listed......
Total value? 202 million !!
ESOS cost price ? 79 sen only!  rclxub.gif
Picorp?
A chart influenced trading 'idea'...
Chart showed stock breaking out to new highs...
recent quarter profits were good...
but the only risk as stated before was the company's profit track record was very inconsistent.  sweat.gif
These are just simple stock trading ideas plucked out for discussion.....  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
AAX tongue.gif

No, didn't touch. Almost... the first day
lambethwalk
post May 22 2014, 09:17 AM

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QUOTE(wenqing @ May 22 2014, 09:15 AM)
Homeriz wan fly liao.....
*
Topping up was a good idea wub.gif
jerrychoo2004
post May 22 2014, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(lambethwalk @ May 22 2014, 09:17 AM)
Topping up was a good idea  wub.gif
*
laughing my way to the bank rclxms.gif
lambethwalk
post May 22 2014, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(jerrychoo2004 @ May 22 2014, 09:22 AM)
laughing my way to the bank  rclxms.gif
*
i bought same price as u drool.gif
jerrychoo2004
post May 22 2014, 09:36 AM

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QUOTE(lambethwalk @ May 22 2014, 09:31 AM)
i bought same price as u  drool.gif
*
jom wait u at ah yat abalone 12pm later biggrin.gif
lambethwalk
post May 22 2014, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(jerrychoo2004 @ May 22 2014, 09:36 AM)
jom wait u at ah yat abalone 12pm later  biggrin.gif
*
Hahaha!

Too bad lah,
All my profit goes back to reducing portfolio debt sad.gif
end up don't make anything..
sien


foofoosasa
post May 22 2014, 10:00 AM

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QUOTE(lambethwalk @ May 22 2014, 09:31 AM)
i bought same price as u  drool.gif
*
Topped this up almost 4 times already rclxm9.gif
foofoosasa
post May 22 2014, 10:02 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 22 2014, 08:05 AM)
tongue.gif

as stated, they will be adding 9 new aircraft.

Implication is pretty damming....

They are actually doing more business (ie more flights, which equals more passengers) but their revenue is not increasing.

Their selling price (of their tickets) has gone down....
This means only one thing!!
Intense competition!!!!
The adding of 9 new aircraft next quarter would means more future borrowings (borrowings is already 10.4 billion)(there will be sale of old planes to help lessen burden)...
net debts increasing....
finance cost increasing....
and cash is burning...... fast.!

Again this is would be a good example WHY one cannot place observations over actual numbers.

We go LCT or we fly AirAsia itself...
We see MORE passengers....

and from those simple observation, we assume profits should be better.
Simple and normal deduction...
more passenger should equal more revenue and more revenue should equal more profit.

the numbers compared to same period last year.

Malaysian operations. Passengers increased by 4%. Operating Profit decreased from 250 million to 220 million.
Thailand operations. Passengers increased by 22%. Operating Profit decreased from 930 million to 330 million.
Indonesian operations. Passengers increased by 22%. Operating profit of 41 million turned to operating loss of 390 million!!!

( For Indonesia: AirAsia mentioned the following:
"However, as the Group‟s interest in Indonesia AirAsia has been reduced to zero any profits will only be recognized when a total of RM281.0 million of unrecognized losses have been reversed".)
...... see how the actual numbers tell a much different story than observation?
... and the stock is flying!!!

laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif

... and most of research houses is calling a BUY!

laugh.gif
*
if MAS bankrupt, maybe will indirect help AA or AAX? hmm.gif ... maybe only local route for AA.

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