QUOTE(lynetnonyma @ May 21 2014, 08:53 PM)
Hahaha.I come here to ask tips but at the end getting ask by others for tips?? Bursa Traders V5
Bursa Traders V5
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May 21 2014, 08:57 PM
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4,715 posts Joined: Jan 2011 |
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May 21 2014, 09:00 PM
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QUOTE(lynetnonyma @ May 21 2014, 08:53 PM) So, it was you. Hmmm.... any more tips like that? Hahah... don't tell Boon3 I asked... I cannot see one. |
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May 21 2014, 09:03 PM
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640 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 21 2014, 08:42 PM) Ok.. from past experiences... But would that not depend on the figures? For example, what if it is like this.I have noted that the market tends to get nervous when the profit 'growth' extends more than 3 years... this is cos.... I think... they are taught that growth doesn't last forever.... so after 3 years or so, they then pay attention to rate of profit growth... once it slows, as per your example, they won't get so gung ho over the stock.... in fact... they usually get edgy.... 2010 100m 2011 200m (100%) 2012 380m (90%) 2013 684m (80%) Although percentage decreasing every year, the dollar value is very much increased. In 4 years, profit increased by 584m in total. Every year you make more dollar-wise than the previous year profit. I gues it depends on the numbers? |
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May 21 2014, 09:04 PM
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QUOTE(lynetnonyma @ May 21 2014, 09:03 PM) But would that not depend on the figures? For example, what if it is like this. Wah.What stock is that?? tell me tell me. 2010 100m 2011 200m (100%) 2012 380m (90%) 2013 684m (80%) Although percentage decreasing every year, the dollar value is very much increased. In 4 years, profit increased by 584m in total. Every year you make more dollar-wise than the previous year profit. I gues it depends on the numbers? |
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May 21 2014, 09:05 PM
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640 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
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May 21 2014, 09:06 PM
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1,637 posts Joined: Mar 2010 From: Bolehland |
QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 21 2014, 08:42 PM) Ok.. from past experiences... What do u mean by gung-ho? Lol... Must be something bad huh. Does it mean that the investors would dump this stock and look for other stocks that have higher growth rate? Omg... I have noted that the market tends to get nervous when the profit 'growth' extends more than 3 years... this is cos.... I think... they are taught that growth doesn't last forever.... so after 3 years or so, they then pay attention to rate of profit growth... once it slows, as per your example, they won't get so gung ho over the stock.... in fact... they usually get edgy.... |
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May 21 2014, 09:12 PM
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15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008 |
QUOTE(lynetnonyma @ May 21 2014, 09:03 PM) But would that not depend on the figures? For example, what if it is like this. 2010 100m 2011 200m (100%) 2012 380m (90%) 2013 684m (80%) Although percentage decreasing every year, the dollar value is very much increased. In 4 years, profit increased by 584m in total. Every year you make more dollar-wise than the previous year profit. I gues it depends on the numbers? For such numbers, they will close eyes laaa..... |
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May 21 2014, 09:13 PM
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QUOTE(twhong_91 @ May 21 2014, 09:06 PM) What do u mean by gung-ho? Lol... Must be something bad huh. Does it mean that the investors would dump this stock and look for other stocks that have higher growth rate? Omg... Err..... gung ho .... err .... means ........optimistic.... edgy...... err...... means ........ nervous. ok ah? |
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May 21 2014, 09:16 PM
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640 posts Joined: Jun 2013 |
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May 21 2014, 09:20 PM
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1,637 posts Joined: Mar 2010 From: Bolehland |
QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 21 2014, 09:13 PM) Err..... Haha... Ya I understand better now. So they are getting nervous now. What do u recommend boon? Now is paper loss 11% gung ho .... err .... means ........optimistic.... edgy...... err...... means ........ nervous. ok ah? |
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May 22 2014, 08:05 AM
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15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008 |
QUOTE(TakoC @ May 21 2014, 08:34 PM) They did mentioned in their quarter result that their average price dropped despite the volume increased. as stated, they will be adding 9 new aircraft. Implication is pretty damming.... They are actually doing more business (ie more flights, which equals more passengers) but their revenue is not increasing. Their selling price (of their tickets) has gone down.... This means only one thing!! Intense competition!!!! The adding of 9 new aircraft next quarter would means more future borrowings (borrowings is already 10.4 billion)(there will be sale of old planes to help lessen burden)... net debts increasing.... finance cost increasing.... and cash is burning...... fast.! Again this is would be a good example WHY one cannot place observations over actual numbers. We go LCT or we fly AirAsia itself... We see MORE passengers.... and from those simple observation, we assume profits should be better. Simple and normal deduction... more passenger should equal more revenue and more revenue should equal more profit. the numbers compared to same period last year. Malaysian operations. Passengers increased by 4%. Operating Profit decreased from 250 million to 220 million. Thailand operations. Passengers increased by 22%. Operating Profit decreased from 930 million to 330 million. Indonesian operations. Passengers increased by 22%. Operating profit of 41 million turned to operating loss of 390 million!!! ( For Indonesia: AirAsia mentioned the following: "However, as the Group‟s interest in Indonesia AirAsia has been reduced to zero any profits will only be recognized when a total of RM281.0 million of unrecognized losses have been reversed".) ...... see how the actual numbers tell a much different story than observation? ... and the stock is flying!!! ... and most of research houses is calling a BUY! |
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May 22 2014, 09:15 AM
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4,715 posts Joined: Jan 2011 |
Homeriz wan fly liao.....
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May 22 2014, 09:17 AM
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2,635 posts Joined: Jun 2011 From: bohtakchik |
QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 21 2014, 08:25 PM) AirAsia trading idea was actually tricky. AAX A trade would have actually been more justified by the chart than the 'observation' (stated earlier). Although profit result showed 'big' increase, I felt that the earnings was very distorted by a huge forex gains ( I am shocked and amazed that it was a 'gain'). Leaving that out, the profits was deteriorating badly. One thing about AirAsia, they give a lot of info in their profit announcement (kudos to them) but if we take the time and read it, we can see a big and serious problem. We all know their revenue is flat - y-y but consider these facts... Malaysia operations. Aircraft fleet increased from 66 to 72 (9%) Number of Flights increased 1% Thailand operations. Aircraft fleet increased from 28 to 37 (32%) Number of Flights increased 31% Indonesian operations. Aircraft fleet increased from 22 to 30 (36%) Number of Flights increased 19% Can get the simple implication? Aircraft increased, number of flights increased but revenue flat. Terrible. Ben? Remember what you said about what GUH was doing (compared to Parkson) ? Remember? Things now (TODAY) have changed some what.... Last buyback announced was done on 14/5 TODAY's announcement probably might leave traders with mixed feeling... Company announced many ESOS shares being listed...... Total value? 202 million !! ESOS cost price ? 79 sen only! Picorp? A chart influenced trading 'idea'... Chart showed stock breaking out to new highs... recent quarter profits were good... but the only risk as stated before was the company's profit track record was very inconsistent. These are just simple stock trading ideas plucked out for discussion..... No, didn't touch. Almost... the first day |
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May 22 2014, 09:17 AM
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2,635 posts Joined: Jun 2011 From: bohtakchik |
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May 22 2014, 09:22 AM
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1,633 posts Joined: Jan 2007 |
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May 22 2014, 09:31 AM
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Senior Member
2,635 posts Joined: Jun 2011 From: bohtakchik |
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May 22 2014, 09:36 AM
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1,633 posts Joined: Jan 2007 |
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May 22 2014, 09:38 AM
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Senior Member
2,635 posts Joined: Jun 2011 From: bohtakchik |
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May 22 2014, 10:00 AM
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3,482 posts Joined: Sep 2007 |
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May 22 2014, 10:02 AM
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3,482 posts Joined: Sep 2007 |
QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 22 2014, 08:05 AM) as stated, they will be adding 9 new aircraft. Implication is pretty damming.... They are actually doing more business (ie more flights, which equals more passengers) but their revenue is not increasing. Their selling price (of their tickets) has gone down.... This means only one thing!! Intense competition!!!! The adding of 9 new aircraft next quarter would means more future borrowings (borrowings is already 10.4 billion)(there will be sale of old planes to help lessen burden)... net debts increasing.... finance cost increasing.... and cash is burning...... fast.! Again this is would be a good example WHY one cannot place observations over actual numbers. We go LCT or we fly AirAsia itself... We see MORE passengers.... and from those simple observation, we assume profits should be better. Simple and normal deduction... more passenger should equal more revenue and more revenue should equal more profit. the numbers compared to same period last year. Malaysian operations. Passengers increased by 4%. Operating Profit decreased from 250 million to 220 million. Thailand operations. Passengers increased by 22%. Operating Profit decreased from 930 million to 330 million. Indonesian operations. Passengers increased by 22%. Operating profit of 41 million turned to operating loss of 390 million!!! ( For Indonesia: AirAsia mentioned the following: "However, as the Group‟s interest in Indonesia AirAsia has been reduced to zero any profits will only be recognized when a total of RM281.0 million of unrecognized losses have been reversed".) ...... see how the actual numbers tell a much different story than observation? ... and the stock is flying!!! ... and most of research houses is calling a BUY! |
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