Point is we ALWAYS hear so many super market advices/theories.

SELL la in May and go holiday....
BUY for CNY rally....
SELL la before World Cup....
BUY la for Raya rally....
BUY la for Santa rally....

LOL!

So many theories.....

my point is?
Has anyone conclusively prove that these theories even work?

Sell in May theory?

I think I posted the 2013 and 2012, KLCI chart.
I even posted one random stock, PBBank.
Did the theory even work?

World Cup theory?
I have posted not too long ago the CI charts for the last 3 World Cups.
Did the theory even work?



Yeah, I think it is better if market players do their own homework, check their own data, before simply listening to advices.

I know that you always post lots of charts and data to accompany your statements. This is why the forum treats you like a god. Like everyone else, I am of course in awe as well of how much work you put into research and how well reasoned your arguments are.

But sometimes people just like to post to talk cock. Otherwise the thread is dull and quiet, like the market is right now. And anyway not all posts must necessarily be advice. It may just be random observations and anecdotes.

To answer your question, NO, it doesn't work that way for those theories. It has many other factors/dependencies. Certain business nature, or market may be affected, some are not affected. And every business got their own season, like HOMER last 2 quarters always performing better? It depends I think, and you're right and I totally agree with you that we've to do our own homework, check and convince our ownselfs with facts or what we believe and not just simple following

Thanks for sharing your business experiences.
Yes, sometimes it can be a good indicator.... but .... remember there are always exceptions.

How many people, you know, have complained that business in general has been poor for the Dec-Feb period recently?

I heard many, from different businesses.

But strangely, if you recall the good/lousy profits trend list I posted recently, most companies that reported for that period, actually performed much better than last year.

Well..... how would you explain that?


You know, sometimes, observations are just observations.

Sometimes we can see a shop with booming business.
We walk in and we usually see loads of people in the shop.

But can we safely conclude 100% that this is a great profitable business?

We cannot because we do not know the financial standing of the company.
If the company is heavily leveraged, then whatever good business from appearance would be reduced greatly by financial costs.
Or perhaps, the owners have other huge hidden costs from our eyes?
For example, the owners could pay themselves with obscene salaries or the owners simply pass all sort of bills as company expenses.
When that happens, all the profits would be diminished!

Today Raya really rally..

Ok. Point noted.

Just to share once again the 2010 KLCI chart.



Notes....

1. The index dropped a lot in May itself.

2. The market however, rebounded strongly by end May itself.

3. 2010 World Cup started in June. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_FIFA_World_Cup

Conclusion?

Just out of curiosity, do you have to pay for a copy of the ChartNexus software to create those charts? Does it come with full historical data?

I am a cheapskate.
I try to use everything the free way.

My copy is from the trading software provided by my brokerage house, and in this instance, KenMoney.

Jupiter charting is the same, and yes most stocks have full historical data, except for CI.

Yeah... the CI ....

I cannot go back to say 2002.

Correction... my free cheapo software only provides me to see 10 year data.

Good already, mine silly software only provide 5 months chart data.

rock this thread abit

homework from boon3. hehe now only free



macam normal jer

the only thing not normal is last year same quarter result

if you ask me will there be an impressive result this year, i would say so-so

Meh stock ah?

P/E 16.xx

dividend payout close to 100% last year

dividend yield 6%, based on the current 'trend' capital gain should be slow to moderate. to further analyze this really need this coming report

can justify your thought of skeptical of my 'meh' rating of this counter?

This post has been edited by spring onion: May 7 2014, 11:40 PM

What the stock name?

you were talking about seasonal cycle on the other day

This post has been edited by spring onion: May 7 2014, 11:49 PM

Jinter ah?

abo? i thought you quite familiarize already?

Almost midnight and you think I remember numbers meh?

So what is the question, actually?




Lazy to think la

the question was about seeing seasonal cycle in business growth... you asked to take a look at this company