It's good to be prepared but as much as you are, prepare yourself for the unexpected too.

Market will always tend to surprise one.

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jun 21 2014, 06:58 PM

LOL!

Wake up call? Nah....

See this is what I meant by 'coverage' when I wrote about Homer yesterday morning.

Consider the following.

1. Company has a rolloer coaster track record.
It had been recovering/turning around since hitting the low in 2009. Some would call it growth since 2009.
Nevertheless, the fact is profits had been terribly poor the last 3 quarters.
Yet the stock is flying.

2. Stock was stuck in 60-70 range for few months until news of this big order in April.
Stock flew up cos of that.
On one hand, order is big. So there's justification.
Stock closed at 1.16.
Up some 46 sen since breaking out of that range.
LOL! Chart is extremely bullish for the matter....
want to chase meh? hehe...


3. In terms of EPS.
If assuming the same profitability and also using the same estimate, the order could bring in some 10 mil profit.
Could.
But in terms of eps, that's only some 6 sen EPS.
The lest 3 quarters, Elsoft only had sales revenue around 3 or 4 million nia.
Profit per quarter is about 1 sen per quarter only.....

Price now 1.16 yo....
How?

I would stick to my earlier comment...

Market is too generous....

Of course la.

Which is why Elsoft is trading 21 times current (trailing) earnings.

And compare to Homer.... it's only about less than 8 times earnings and Ah Lat at under 5 times earnings.

Which one you want?
With coverage, you get an over 20x earnings stock?
Or without coverage, you get the ultra low PE stock?

Remember, whether you are investor or trader....
you want to make money mah...
you want the stock to go up ma.......

Surely I cannot be wrong here.....

It's not about different styles dude.

Look what's your rough value of Homer?

Yes, what do you think Homer should be worth?

My fungers (I dunno la) simply shoot out like a blind bat .... 160.



Look at it now....
A pathetic 80 sen.

Are you happy with 80 sen if the company is worth 160?
Yes, your cost is cheap... maybe 40 sen only...
but does the current price justify what the company's performance?

You still don't quite understand my point...

nvm...
I no need hard sell...
as long as you are happy with the current price....
then so be it.

....


Meanwhile...

...... another homer fansi or mangsa?

let me re-post this again.....................

***********

Regarding Homer.

This is actually a stock that I just discuss openly with gark
Yes, in my opinion (which could be wrong), I felt Homer should be valued at around 1.60 within a year.
That time, Homer was around 68 sen or so.

Now despite the superior results shown by Homer, tremendous growth and an unbelievably good result...
I think many would say Homer is kinda underperforming...
Homer is just trading around 80 sen...
Pathetic actually once you start comparing with other flying stocks....

So what's the deal?

I had already voiced out the concern regarding the stock.....

it's a furniture stock - many still misunderstand and have a negative bias against the sector.
Not that I blame them...
Furniture companies is usually associated with furniture showrooms that gets burned down....
Many just don't like and trust such business....
They think it's all inside con job.
I don't blame them...

the lack of coverage....
an undiscovered stock is an undiscovered stock....
it runs the risk of being a sunset stock for a very long time....
which research house is covering it?
Kenanga had a research done on it...
but the research was horribly terrible....
Profit estimates were behind the curve (trailing profits were already more than the estimates given by the analyst! Duh! )
The price target was simply given - it was based on TA... and the TA was faulty! Duh!
KLSE is not a matured market...
without proper coverage... the stock is...... unloved.....

lack of news coverage....
Star had a coverage on the company recently...
but that's about it.....
when Homer announces its good result past couple quarters, there was ZERO mention. Duh!

lack of institute funds......

And all these issues still remain today......
That is why you don't see the stock go up bang band sound.....

In fact, I just wrote the following comments yesterday..............
And this is where we stand on Homer today.

Are you guys and gals gonna hold that 160 as if it was some holy words cast in stone?

Or do you think it's high time to re-evaluate the trade?
Maybe those fungers of this Ah Boon was so damn intoxicated when it ran out the figures 160......

Use the forum thread search function la.
I discussed it before.

Don't be lazy.

So did yoy manage to find it?

And what would be your opinion of it now?

The discussion was with Onion.

Long detailed discussion too...
I could copy and paste everything again...

Hehe... that counting the egg thing, you have to ask Onion.

The point is, Benalec was a simple trading example.

There was a catalyst back when I wrote...
The company was buying back the shares aggressively.

Now?

Anything change?
Price now and then, differ quite a bit.
There is still buybacks but very, very little.

Any fundamental changes?

These are the things you need to ask yourself.
Do your own homework.

Do not simply bet blindly.

Hohoho .....

And this is where it is strange yes?

Many of us sees the bull run yet many still don't feel it is a bull run.

Am I making not sense?



So how are you?

Oiii... onion.

CSL again meh?

Really?

Yes, I AGREE with you that any BAD, LOUSY and CHAP LAP shares can be goreng

Fried until hangus.

As can be seen lately, half baked fundamentals also can be used as reason to fry a stock.

This is how the stock market is....

However.... the risk of course.... if you are not lucky (sarcasm deeply intended ) you would run into a share like CSL.

Anyway, just the start of this thread... post #3


And for the matter of CSL....

Would it surprise you that I have warned against the punting of this share since...... April....... 2013!!!!!!



LOL! Bragging time lor....

See post #102



You can see the classic reply....



My blunt reply.
another reply of mine....

Cash per share is NEVER EVER a 100% safe indicator cos CASH LEVELS (esp as seen in several Chinaman stocks) can be easily faked.

Of course, many don't believe these kind advices...

For example:

Why was I so convinced that the CASH levels were fake then?



And this is the stock market.

Many can be seduced to trade/invest/punt in a stock for all the wrong reasons...

They see the stock trading at a huge discount over the stock's highest price.
Buy low sell high is what they always have been taught.
They then see the NTA. (duh!)
They see the low PE (duh!)

And sometimes (and more so in a hot bull market) whatever advice we can offer goes in one ear and out another.

The man with the wok and the cooking oil... LOL
He the man yo!
He can fry it until no Aunty can recognise!





For the record:

last April 25, CSL traded at 34 sen.
Yesterday CSL closed at 7.5 sen.



This post has been edited by Boon3: Jul 4 2014, 08:43 AM

Too early....still few more hours....

Ah felix, last night got what bola wo?

I don't watch either....

Is it any good?

Are you turning into a 'value' investor meh?

PMCorp has a terrible history.
It was a simply badly managed company.
Then came the efforts to restructure the company....

Which makes things interesting a bit -- if you are a 'value investor'.

Last year earnings was distorted.
The profits were distorted by accounting profits caused by sales of asset + bad debts adjustments.

So therefor, I am NOT one that would freely use the phrase 'healthy financial flow' to describe PMCorp.

Story telling time. LOL!



That chart probably describes PMCorp the best.

See how the chart fell off the cliff from 2004? PMCorp was around 60 sen then. ( If not mistaken, PMCorp took a 1 billion losses in 2004 in an earlier restructure effort. The company was in such a typical mess. Inter company loans were all over the place etc etc etc)

It probably hit the lows of around 8 sen or so in 2012.

60 sen to a bottom of 8 sen.



Like I have been mentioning, this where knowing fundamentals helps.

And if you look at the chart, you can see only one decent attempt to 'deep fry' the stock.

That's highlighted with the small green arrows.

What's the driving factor that drove the stock from a low of 13 sen to a high of 37 sen?

What's the catalyst?



Is it a fundamental induced rally?
Or is it Mr.Char who dumped the stock into a hot wok and fried the shit out of the stock?



Well for me, my interpretation, is that the answer lies in the disposal of asset announced in the Sep announcement.
That disposal helped boost EPS to 3 sen for PMCorp.
PMCorp became very cheap in the eyes of value investors at the prices then.
Not forgetting the cash pile PMCorp had.
Over 140 million and very little cash.
That's translated to about 18 sen.
Share price of PMC then was around 13-15 sen.
And then some even pointed out the treasury shares PMC had.

Here's the interesting about the treasury shares held.
For example, this was the first of PMC buybacks.
It was done in 2005!!! *whistle*

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...ncements/802778

Shares were bought between 43 and 45 sen!!!
Last share buyback was in 2012, bought back at 9 sen but the amount of shares repurchased was very little only.

Anyway, from a value point of view, there was value in the company.

That was the catalyst that made PMCorp an attractive stock buy.

Penny stock some more.
And of course, with so much cash, naughty wild speculations was spread in the market.
Talks of PMCorp being taken private was like putting extra cooking oil in the hot wok!

Fry baby fry!!! LOL!!!

Then of course... nothing materialized.
Mana ada private offer?

December came and PMCorp had some bad debts left in its book that it needs to take off.
So came a bad debt write off which caused PMCorp announcing some 4.7 million losses in December.

And then came Feb 2014.

I think this should be the clean start for PMCorp.

17 Million sales, 1.68 million profit or an eps of 0.24 sen.
Annualised it, we can estimate an eps of around 0.96 sen nia.
Which is rather small.
And if base on profits, the current price of 22.5 sen is about justifiable.

And if you look at the chart...
This probably explains what PMCorp's trading pattern since Feb.

based on profits, there wasn't much attractions 'left'.
hence the stock, traded in current trading range between 21 sen and 24.5 sen.

but yes...
the company still has plenty of cash...
but the big boss does not want to do anything much with the cash for now....
and since PMCorp still holds accumulated losses in its books, there isn't much chance for investors to see any dividends anytime soon for now.

So if you buy the stock now....
what would be the catalyst to drive the stock higher?

I know, I know... I see... goreng has been in vogue lately.
Fry baby fry!!!!
Will those guys decide to fry this stock on their own? *whistle*