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 Bursa Traders V5

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spring onion
post Sep 19 2014, 07:42 PM

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QUOTE(Hongchai @ Sep 19 2014, 09:35 AM)
Well... I guess this stock would be sluggished until the discounted price has been fixed.
Just wondering, can I expect the stock to perform like Hevea after the whole private placement exercise is done?
Hevea was trading at a discount when they undergoing the private placement, when it was done, the stock flew (of course backed by good quarterly result)

So, the question is whether private placement for a good company is a good move? Or we should avoid these companies at all cost?
*
for hevea case, yes PP did help a lot to push hevea in the spotlight

hevea was in debt and rumors suggesting that PP did help a little to clear off some (either in a direct way or indirect) and by this will help the company to secure more cash to expand their manufacturing capacity ( why? cause their demand is high )

looking towards some share undergoing PP like hohup, malton, fitters and others... need to see whether any catalyst that will help them to push their price higher

what kind catalyst? i dont know, need to ask boon for more details unsure.gif
TSBoon3
post Sep 19 2014, 08:47 PM

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QUOTE(spring onion @ Sep 19 2014, 07:37 PM)
iinm got 1 IB did cover about homer and their calculation were all wrong as claim by boon whistling.gif
*
Want to be like this meh? tongue.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


whistling.gif

if you know fundamentals well...
it's so clear the fair value is based on an extremely poor earnings estimate.
it's crystal clear.

Gark saw it straight away.

Anyway to prove the issue...

Fair value is based on 2014 eps estimate of only 8.4 sen. doh.gif

Fact: Current/trailing eps is already 11 sen. doh.gif

Fact: Current 9 months eps for 2014 is already 7.54 sen.

Fact: Current 9 months profits have increased 76.9% when compared against same period last year!!! 76.9% growth!!

Fact: Q4 eps have always been seasonally strong for Homer.

How?

Come next quarter report in Nov, you think Homer cannot get total year eps more than 8.4 sen?????

DPS yield of only 3.1%???

LOL!!!!

This calender year, Homer already paid 4.75 sen in dividends.

Using 80 sen as base (that's how much Homer was trading when the report came out) , the yield is 5.9% la.

5.9% yield and 3.1% yield ...... errr...... very far apart hor!!


Many read reports and they only look at target prices.
They don't see if the target prices is based on reasonable estimates or fly sky estimates. laugh.gif


wenqing
post Sep 19 2014, 08:58 PM

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If I am those analyst I will write expected EPS=0.11 and based on the average PE on furniture sector x8 with TP=0.88. More reasonable mah like this. Hahaha
foofoosasa
post Sep 20 2014, 07:26 AM

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QUOTE(wenqing @ Sep 19 2014, 08:58 PM)
If I am those analyst I will write expected EPS=0.11 and based on the average PE on furniture sector x8 with TP=0.88. More reasonable mah like this. Hahaha
*
if share price goes up, those analyst will re-estimate again..... yawn.gif

goes up liao then say good things, who also know to become analyst if like this laugh.gif

Anyway homer holder just wait patiently biggrin.gif
TSBoon3
post Sep 20 2014, 09:32 AM

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QUOTE(wenqing @ Sep 19 2014, 08:58 PM)
If I am those analyst I will write expected EPS=0.11 and based on the average PE on furniture sector x8 with TP=0.88. More reasonable mah like this. Hahaha
*
Nope. tongue.gif

laugh.gif

Firstly, you need to base your estimates on future earnings.
As it is, you are basing the eps based on current eps only.
This is not how they the market. LOL!
You need to project earnings for next year, ie FY2015, at least.

Why furniture business worth 8x PE when they have a much more solid cash flow than most other companies?
Why? tongue.gif

All furniture manufactures come from Sungai Buluh one mehhhhh?
They all burn down once a year mehhhhhh???

Are we all so prejudiced in our small mindset?

LOL!!!


wenqing
post Sep 20 2014, 01:17 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 20 2014, 09:32 AM)
Nope. tongue.gif

laugh.gif

Firstly, you need to base your estimates on future earnings.
As it is, you are basing the eps based on current eps only.
This is not how they the market. LOL!
You need to project earnings for next year, ie FY2015, at least.

Why furniture business worth 8x PE when they have a much more solid cash flow than most other companies?
Why? tongue.gif

All furniture manufactures come from Sungai Buluh one mehhhhh?
They all burn down once a year mehhhhhh???

Are we all so prejudiced in our small mindset?

LOL!!!
*
But remember that is the PE that the market give to furniture sector. And that also the "facts".
Question : how to change the market perspective?
Answer: By goreng a furniture stock to PE=15+ and let market know furniture stock also can have high PE also de. brows.gif brows.gif
TSBoon3
post Sep 20 2014, 01:24 PM

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QUOTE(wenqing @ Sep 20 2014, 01:17 PM)
But remember that is the PE that the market give to furniture sector. And that also the "facts".
Question : how to change the market perspective?
Answer: By goreng a furniture stock to PE=15+ and let market know furniture stock also can have high PE also de. brows.gif  brows.gif
*
laugh.gif

Sad but true..... tongue.gif

it's the market perception and sometimes we can use all the saliva we have and some more we have to borrow more saliva from Auntie Yee, also we cannot change this 'fact'.

biggrin.gif
TSBoon3
post Sep 20 2014, 02:22 PM

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QUOTE(hehe86 @ Sep 19 2014, 01:07 AM)


Haha wa your poison quite strong eh.
Hiding where already? tongue.gif

I was just looking through some stuff...
and then I saw this....

posted ON 2nd Sept (see post # 2082 ... hehe

user posted image

and then you said you prefer moon cake la... and then downtrend la....

Did you see the updated chart?

user posted image

not bad eh? tongue.gif

then I saw your Sunway.

user posted image

also not bad... tongue.gif

Ayam kambing?

laugh.gif
hehe86
post Sep 20 2014, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 20 2014, 02:22 PM)
Hiding where already? tongue.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


Ayam kambing?

laugh.gif
*
Haha, where got hide. I'm here like a man! tongue.gif

Sunway got mention ma when breakout. The next 2 days i'm waiting like hawk man, but lowest only 3.26, i'm aiming for 3.2-3.23!! Ayam iz sadding already cry.gif

Homeriz also laugh.gif

EFORCE was not in my watchlist. So when you briefly shown the chart previously, i briefly see lo, laugh.gif After see more clearly, TA can try try lo. Later i go see see FA, (i don't believe i'm saying this laugh.gif)

user posted image

GASMSIA also i'm seeing. Whole week cannot break 3.5 then suddenly friday like that. Briefly check PE 20x, should check the other same sector average P/E but didn't do that yet. So... laugh.gif
TSBoon3
post Sep 20 2014, 03:03 PM

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QUOTE(hehe86 @ Sep 20 2014, 02:56 PM)
Haha, where got hide. I'm here like a man! tongue.gif

Sunway got mention ma when breakout. The next 2 days i'm waiting like hawk man, but lowest only 3.26, i'm aiming for 3.2-3.23!! Ayam iz sadding already cry.gif

Homeriz also laugh.gif

EFORCE was not in my watchlist. So when you briefly shown the chart previously, i briefly see lo, laugh.gif After see more clearly, TA can try try lo. Later i go see see FA, (i don't believe i'm saying this laugh.gif)

user posted image
laugh.gif

You just eat poison already!!!!

rclxm9.gif rclxm9.gif rclxm9.gif

Time to go kai kai.... cool.gif
spring onion
post Sep 20 2014, 03:13 PM

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damn i was looking into eforce too but then no luck la. prefer more fundamental 1
hehe86
post Sep 20 2014, 04:37 PM

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QUOTE(spring onion @ Sep 20 2014, 03:13 PM)
damn i was looking into eforce too but then no luck la. prefer more fundamental 1
*
IF fill the gap, mau lompat atau tidak? laugh.gif
hehe86
post Sep 20 2014, 04:38 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 20 2014, 03:03 PM)
laugh.gif

You just eat poison already!!!!

rclxm9.gif  rclxm9.gif  rclxm9.gif

Time to go kai kai....  cool.gif
*
So syok kai kai ar. Happy weekends!
kevraul
post Sep 20 2014, 06:59 PM

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FA - financial analysis?
TA - ?
wenqing
post Sep 20 2014, 07:17 PM

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QUOTE(kevraul @ Sep 20 2014, 06:59 PM)
FA - financial analysis?
TA - ?
*
FA=Fundamental Analysis
TA=Technical Analysis
ThanatosSwiftfire
post Sep 20 2014, 07:24 PM

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eh for manufacturing busineses like furniture do you visit their stores etc? I sometimes no sure how good msian manufcaturing companies are doing.. every time see their financial statements cannot imagine how good or bad their sales is...
cooldownguy86
post Sep 20 2014, 08:55 PM

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abang boon ada tengok coastal?
spring onion
post Sep 20 2014, 09:56 PM

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QUOTE(hehe86 @ Sep 20 2014, 04:37 PM)
IF fill the gap, mau lompat atau tidak? laugh.gif
*
haha will be trading in 555 instead.... some skills needed to trade such shares

at the current price it would be fairly priced, do you think so?

This post has been edited by spring onion: Sep 20 2014, 10:07 PM
TSBoon3
post Sep 21 2014, 12:31 AM

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QUOTE(cooldownguy86 @ Sep 20 2014, 08:55 PM)
abang boon ada tengok coastal?
*
saw half half only....
dunno how to trade this stock at the moment....

stock has been consolidating for a bit too long ......
not much excitement....

having said that...
friday's performance was a relief (volume was decent too) .....
after 7 days of losses....
TSBoon3
post Sep 21 2014, 04:18 PM

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QUOTE(ThanatosSwiftfire @ Sep 20 2014, 07:24 PM)
eh for manufacturing busineses like furniture do you visit their stores etc? I sometimes no sure how good msian manufcaturing companies are doing.. every time see their financial statements cannot imagine how good or bad their sales is...
*
missed your posting.

erm .. just for your info, I ain't no investor..
but I do understand what you are talking about...

let me paste what I wrote before...

Many have learn about Fisher's scuttlebugscuttlebutt theory.
You observe the businesses you want to invest in before you invest in it.
For example, if you think McDonalds is a good franchise business to invest in...
you go check out few stores ...
and see if the business is good from your observation.

So if you walk in a couple of McDonalds ...
and you find their business is pak woo ying....
then you know...
maybe it's not a good investment...
On the other hand...
if the stores you walk in...
and you find the business good until bang band sound ...
you know your investment can't go too wrong...

Not to say this is a bad exercise...
however, such observation exercise MUST be complemented with examination of the company's numbers....
Observation alone is never enough....

For example....
talk Oldtown....
well observation alone.... is mixed.
some business is good, some disagree.....
however, as pointed by Gark, this is not good enough...
cos the bigger business contributor is their packet Kopi....
and you only know if you read the books....

ref: post #2040

does that help? smile.gif

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