surprise to see that you prefer the cash to be divy instead of capex use

what is the reason? the divy rate is quite decent now, it should be better if they use it as capex

This post has been edited by spring onion: Sep 18 2014, 11:25 PM

Err.... I could be wrong but I feel it's so normal stock trading.
stock was trading/consolidating in a range....
and when it breaks out of the range...
normally we will see a huge spike in volume....

so far Homer case...
I do not see nothing out of the ordinary yet......

Not many people (esp investors) like private placement one....

Yes, the market people....
they will sell the idea...
that private placement is good...
cos it brings in cash for the company... blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.........

but if you are already a shareholder/investor....
private placement means more share....
more share means less earnings per share for the existing shareholders....

actually...
I was surprised to see the non action after the profits results in Aug.
I thought the company performed relatively well............
but market doesn't seem to agree with my opinion...
oh well.....

Just a preference leh....
it really have more than enough money to do a special divy for Q4.....
perhaps a 2 sen divy....

capex?
Yes, capex is good..
but company like Homer case....
in my opinion hor (I can be wrong leh)
it doesn't need big capital to make money...
this is what so wonderful about the company....
it's a money printing business.....
therefor.... giving the extra cash back would be my preference over capex.

More KFC bucket from Homer please

dividend policy at 40% give out rate still applicable right? it should have more than 2.5sen at their current growth. what you mean is another 2 sen on top of the giveout rate??

wait.... please take a step back first.....

this is just plain wishful thinking.......................

OR WILD SPECULATION LA..................

ok?


You need to see balance sheet ma... (in fact I have stated this fact few times jor)

let me paste again....



as it is, Homer has 47.8 million left in the bank...
and Homer share base is some 200 million shares...
this works out to around 23.9 sen cash per share....

so would it be a problem if Homer even gives out a special cash divy of 2 sen?
wet wet water isn't it?

OK.... WAKE ME UP!!!!

stop dreaming!

1 main thing i don't like about private placement is that they are selling shares at a discounted price

of cuz if i am a long term investor i will not like it based on the current economic situation, which is the on-going bull market which lasted for 3 years . when this happens it is best for company to stay strong and play in def mode

it also based on situation. situation where crisis happens and company is in need of cash and private placement happens, then it's a good move

hey hey i am not clear about this. you mean that divy policy is just a wild spec? or what you mean was divy policy+bonus div is just a wishful thinking?

Refer post #2321 again.....

hahaha. so it's your speculation... i doubt so.....

Boon3

Haha wa your poison quite strong eh. K la since you give brief FA 101, i'll try to test it while i caught something thru TA

Steps: Check got profit/increasing; Then project EPS (multiplies by 4); Find avg PE; Then check the price; Check Balance sheet health (debts & cash); Check operating Income

Then see how it goes

As for the automotive part, i didn't save BJAuto in my watchlist, and there's this past proverb "Avoid the fox stocks" (you know who i mean). I know kinda irrational but thats when i'm just started to trade and hence the foolishness i guess.

Alright yosh, sleep tight people

The poison is working.......................... LOL!

Think about it ya....

Yes, people do make charts...
but for those instances.... do you really want to play the stock to their merry chart making?

then think about the other possibilities...
where events make the charts...
such as stronger profits, expectation of stronger profits caused by corporate events etc etc....
such events do make the charts happen (best case again IQGroup - chart was literally loose and dead before the strong profits was posted - new era .... )
sometimes... we can find opportunity here..... via fundamentals...
the charts might not foresee such events....
yes, events/news do make charts too..... LOL!

So which are you going to be comfortable with?
Which stock play is gonna be more meaningful?



The profit thingee makes sense doesn't it?
Company makes more money, people buy their shares, shares go up.
This is how it should be.
Surely, you do not want to play shares the other way around, where sharks play the shares, you join in.... LOL!

The multiple by 4 thingee...
Most of the time, I prefer using the CURRENT EPS (ie MOST RECENT 4 QUARTERS aka TRAILING EPS)...
You use annualise when there is a sharp increase in EPS...

for example IQGroup again....
hehe... use this one since I have the screenshot posted already...



If I use CURRENT eps, I would be adding 8.78+0.54+2.91+7.95....
I will get an eps of around 20.18 sen.
But ....
judging from the balance sheet and the cash flow, I feel the turnaround is real (sometimes, like chart reading, I can make error here in our judgement - hehe .. this is why stocks is fun. LOL!)....
so therefore, I would annualise it by multiplying the latest eps by 4, ie 8.78 x 4 = 35.12 sen eps.

This is where I make reasoning.
Potential eps of 35 sen.
company's share base very, very small....
net cash company - holding 20million cash....
consumer product - lighting sensors (in a relatively still hot property market, potential is there, right? plus it exports too!)

adding it up... and then I compare to the price THE OTHER DAY at 1.40+....
the conclusion is a why not.... LOL!

And then look at the chart....
stock volume picked up very strongly and with a solid gap up....

and then lending weight, there was NEWS coverage...
RHB chipped into with a research report (though the estimates were way, way too conservative)....

See how all the ingredients fell into place?

Well... I guess this stock would be sluggished until the discounted price has been fixed.
Just wondering, can I expect the stock to perform like Hevea after the whole private placement exercise is done?
Hevea was trading at a discount when they undergoing the private placement, when it was done, the stock flew (of course backed by good quarterly result)

So, the question is whether private placement for a good company is a good move? Or we should avoid these companies at all cost?

Think simple.

Take Hevea case again....
After placement share price shot up.
So we are assuming placement got the impact on the shares right?

Which means... if we buy the shares just cos of the placement....
we then HOPE .....
yes HOPE....
the share price will go up....

but is that ALWAYS the case?
I have seen placement shares having zero impact on the stock price...
in fact... the share price go down too....

so if we conclude that there is 2 possible outcome....
how sound is such a strategy (ie buy a share cos there is a proposed private placement) to us?

This post has been edited by Boon3: Sep 19 2014, 10:12 AM

very interesting analysis by you boon gor.

so now game over liao? potential EPS off 35.12, current price is 1.85 so PE is only 5.26 times.

still got improvement wor, boon, would u buy this kind of stock when it is already shot up?but potential eps is only estimation.

In my opinion, this is the first real consolidation since it gap up end last month.
Does it have legs?

I dunno....

As you know, I cannot and will not answer you or anyone directly whether a stock is worth to buy or not.

You need to make your own reasoning...
furthermore... this was only a poisoning example only.... hehe....

In regards to potential eps...

Of course potential eps = estimation.

In our markets and any other markets,
stocks are priced based on their future earnings potential....
this is how it is...
this is how the game is played....

most brokerage, in their attempt to jack up the price target...
will play around with earnings estimate...
they will usually give a rocket estimate based on the assumption the company can achieve xx percent of growth.....
and of course... they have the earnings multiple to play with also...
else ... how can they have so high toilet paper prices?

(search this thread and look for KNM example... )

you, as the trader or investor...
you need to figure if the potential eps is a reasonable achievable target by the company...
this would be your most important question that you need to answer for yourself...
I cannot answer this for you.

Homeritz may trend higher after climbing above the MYR0.85 levelto a new high. Traders may buy if the stock holds above this level, as a bullish bias is likely present. The target price is MYR0.98, followed by MYR1.05. Failure to maintain above the MYR0.85 level may see the stock pull back and drift sideways. Support may be found at MYR0.81, where traders could exit upon a breach on closing.
Sources :RHB

I didn't know RHB covered Homer?

iinm got 1 IB did cover about homer and their calculation were all wrong as claim by boon