A rookie's view here ....
One of the yardsticks that I use to gauge whether the price changes are rational or irrational (i.e., driven by speculation or not) is to look at the price vs EPS graph. An increase in EPS should increase the price and vice versa (I know, only in theory and not 100% all the time in reality).
Some observations:
a. Nestle has the best price vs EPS correlation (r2 = 0.93). So, the price increase is supported by its EPS.
b. Nestle also has the highest price/EPS gradient, i.e., every cent change in EPS will have the biggest change in price among the 5 companies (except Guinness).
c. For Dutch Lady, its price has increased more than what its EPS is supporting. Time for some price correction? Ha.
d. Surprisingly, Guinness' price vs EPS graph is similar to Nestle (gradient). So another strong fundamental company here? But note the higher increase in price vs EPS in 2013, maybe another correction due here too?
I am beginning to change my mind on Nestle as the price is well justified by its strong EPS growth. Forget about intrinsic value? Ha.
Some food for thought:
* why is Nestle price-EPS gradient higher than the rest?
* will Nestle high price-EPS gradient change later?
* can Nestle maintain its strong EPS growth?
My 2 cents.
Cheerio.