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 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market V5, Are the signs already there in Malaysia?

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Tigerr
post Apr 4 2014, 06:05 PM

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QUOTE(juicyliana @ Apr 4 2014, 01:58 PM)
wah! after V5 also bubble not yet burst.

guess it's all a dream and still a dream for those who are waiting for it to burst.
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I always think if time can goes back 3-4 years, I would have accumulate few more properties under my belt. Not to flip but just a passion to collect properties all over the place for rental income. So, if properties really crash, my dream ll get alive again...


Tigerr
post Apr 13 2014, 12:43 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 12 2014, 06:42 PM)
Am curious.
Can somebody please share hk and singapore curbing measures currently in place?
In malaysia, i only know of ltv 70% for 3rd prop onwards. Cap 30 yrs loan. Check on dsr based on net income. Etc.

Anybody care to share measures in those 2 countries?
From what i understand, these 2 countries were engineered to 'force' prop prices to come down or at least stagnant it.
So i think they have actually achieve their goals in mind.
And was it really 20% across the board generally or was it a selected data to a location specific kinda event?
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Singapore has not dropped to 20% yet...I am waiting n stand by to grab one unit end of this year or 1st quarter next year....if can drop 20%, can use the extra savings to get a car too
Tigerr
post Apr 13 2014, 12:50 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Apr 12 2014, 06:06 PM)
I think there is no point to look into Sg and HK property market since their market is different to ours. Let's look at our market and what can be done to curb the rising prices. Glad that you ask me to be Ah Jib. I will definitely do a better job than him in curbing property prices  whistling.gif

I have previously commented on this. Let's do it again. If I were to devise measures to curb rising prices, I will :

1. Help 1st time home owner to own a house
2. Set higher bar for investor to invest in real property

To achieve that, for #1, I will :

a. reintroduce DIBS, zero entry for 1st time home buyer
b. free stamp duty for 1st house on S&P and loan agreement
c. friendly bank loan terms mandatory for banks to approve loans to 1st home buyer. Eg. friendly interest of BLR - 3%, free loan agreement fees, express approval
d. Tax incentive for company who provide loans to their staff who buy 1st home
e. developer give 10% discount to 1st home buyer (just like bumi discount)
f. pre-launch sale for 1st home buyer to choose the best units (ie all units open for them, no director and staff reserved units)
g. 30% reserve for 1st home buyer. Only if there is unsold units for 1 year, the units is open to non-1st home buyer (just like bumi reserve unit)

For #2, I will

a. LTV for 2nd loan is 50%, 3rd loan 30%, 4th loan onwards is 0% (ie if you need loan to buy your 2nd property onward, you cannot afford to invest)
b. stamp duty for 2nd house revised upward
c. developer who still utilising loopholes to give DIBS, zero entry to investor buying 2nd house onward, their license will be suspended and a government agency like IMDB to take over the whole project. Or a hefty fine like 10% of their GDV is imposed
d. RPGT is 30%, 20%, 15%, and 15% for all the subsequent years for 2nd house onwards 
The spirit of the measures should be to help people to own 1st house.
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If u r ah jib n implement the above, u could have lost your job already...just to help 1st time home buyer, u going to collapse the market. When market collapse, those people may lose their jobs n how to even think of buying a house even no down payment or give them 100% loan margin. They simply cant afford the installment.

The picture of people cant afford to buy a house is their problem. There are plenty if house sells below 150k but just that the location n the surrounding not to their liking. Who to blame? It is like I also complain LV bags also bloody expensive n I also not afford to buy one....
Tigerr
post Apr 13 2014, 03:17 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Apr 13 2014, 02:05 PM)
Bro, let me recap. Our initial discussion is when I ask bearbear the following question :
I am now lost what is your points when you answer to the initial discussion.

Again, my idea is very simple. When economy is good --> people have jobs --> people can pay installment --> people got holding and buying power --> property price will increase

How property prices can come down ?

1. Only when economy down --> unemployment problem --> people cannot pay installment --> force sale --> property price come down

2. Or, when ah jib introduce new measures --> demand reduced --> price come down

My idea simple to understand right ?
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U r very right....I agree with u...as long as I got a job n able to pay down payment n installment, I ll go buy more n more properties. Until I lose my job, I ll be panic n if I cant serve my installment, I ll have to get rid of the properties one by one or bank ll lelong for me. This is when economy crash n plenty of fire sales n price ll drop drastically for a period before it stabilize n to rebound.

what ever controls ah jib doing, he only trying to slow it down n not bringing down the price. If ah jib really want to put a stop on it, he can intriduce no more loan on 3rd properties onwards instead of LTV at 70%. He just cant push investors away as if no investors, the economy ll surfer....
Tigerr
post Apr 22 2014, 09:58 AM

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QUOTE(timesrun @ Apr 22 2014, 09:45 AM)
Sometime i very pity them because then buy so many and keep without cash in hand. People got cash got more

liquidity. They thought property is like gold...always up up up... then now gold dropped half already...many people got

holding no value gold. This is same to property now.... many people holding no value asset... which mean the bubble

value.. can we laugh at them?? Can we laugh out loud loud??  laugh.gif  laugh.gif    icon_rolleyes.gif
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For anyone who expect the property to be down or collapsed, please give a thought on this. The electricity tariff n gas price has increased tremendously n the most affecting industries is the steel industries. Hence the steel price ll increase in near future when the govt announce the import ban in order to let the steel industries to survive. Else, they all gonna close shop n the govt ll not allows it mainly due to protect the thousands of worker rice bowl n the revenue going to generate from them on the electricity n gas consumption.

So, when the steel price increased, the cost of building a house or properties ll be increased n with gst kicks in, it is double whack to any future buyers.

When the house price becomes too high, it doesn't mean that the people ll have no house to stay as they ll have to resort to stay with their parents like in the past where it is so common to see a big family living in a house. Furthermore, the game ll change to become renting instead of buying like in singapore n hong kong. Rental price in the future may be like the installment rate we are paying now but in future the installment may be double or triple due to house price increased.


Tigerr
post Apr 22 2014, 10:41 AM

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QUOTE(siakap5 @ Apr 22 2014, 10:16 AM)
Bro ... Be careful .is just mismanagement of poor people. We have too much deficit n easiest way is to increase tariff. But v dangerous act. Don't relate too much n translate it too high prop cost in future. Big mistake.
Cheers
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The increase in tariff is already approved n being implementing.

Properties price is high, the govt ll come out with different methods later. The price of raw materials n labor cost is increasing n hence u can never ask the developer to build at a lost n sell.

If u say like a 500k property, the margin by the developer is 200k. But in future when the cost keep rising, his margin may he diminishing, it is either they dont build or sell at even higher price. Given u the capital to be a developer, what r u going to do? Build n sell future same house at lower price? U won't, isn't it?

When the cost of properties becomes too high, one way we still manage is by restructure the loan to may be 40 yearsor more n u ll forever can't completely own the house until u pay off or extend the loan to your kids or grandkids.


Tigerr
post Apr 22 2014, 10:44 AM

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QUOTE(timesrun @ Apr 22 2014, 10:23 AM)
This is not laugh at misfortune. Do you know why they are misfortune? Because they forever never learn and try to 

hear what people say. They deserve it isn't it? People all bbb then u bbb when it is UUU then sure die la...  doh.gif Who at

first take the risk or burden? Sendiri kan?
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Misfortune is because they missed the boat n they never realised it even being told. This is their own mistakes which is unforgivable. Like Mr. Ma said, if u still poor by 35 years old, u only have yourself to be blamed....
Tigerr
post Apr 22 2014, 10:51 AM

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QUOTE(butthead76 @ Apr 22 2014, 09:02 AM)
seems like everyone expecting the bubble to burst.....

I wonder anyone actually understand how economy works.......hahahh...bubble would only burst when economy crash....if economy crash, wouldn't you risk losing your job? if yes, then would that makes you unemployed, but of course if you cash rich then ok. If you cash rich why bother about bubble, unless you buy cheap sale hold it till economy recovers and sell.

So for average Joes out there, please don't hope for bubble to burst. It is actually very bad for you. biggrin.gif
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In the past, I also had hope the economy to crash down so that I can pick up properties n shares cheaply like in the 1997-1998. But after gone thru the salaried freeze n no increment, no bonus n lots of friends being retrenched n cant find work n see some suppliers n contractors went thru bankruptcy n some friends have their cars being towed by the banks, I definitely won't want the economy to clash. Those young one out there haven't really see or understand the effect of a economy clashed.



Tigerr
post Apr 22 2014, 02:37 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 22 2014, 11:01 AM)
Ceh...say untill debeloper has no profit but keep building hello.. one dude says developer only 13% worr.. 200k out of 500k that is around 40% .. mr accountant clarify

btw developer price justified... flippers lehhh
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If u truly understand how a developer works only u comment. Myself in financing line, n have few developer friends (real boss, not agent, not managers nor workers) who had mentioned to me several times on some of their properties which they developed. Generally they said build one house, profit one house but that is a general statement. Roughly 30-40% profits ll not far away. However, there may be some who willing to profit in less margin.

My in laws work with one of the developer, he shares some profits in the projects n can take home a guaranteed 600k profit sharing bonus end of the projects n will be higher if the profits improved apart from his 5 figures salary.

what I trying to tell u is the cost of materials is increasing n being a developer, they wont let go the kind of margin they earning, and hence the cost or price of a house ll continue to go up. Same as if I ask if any one of u knows if your company is not doing good, will u willingly reduce your take home salaries? Sure u won't n u r still expecting your salaries to be increased instead. Developer n u r no different. Both also human.
Tigerr
post Apr 22 2014, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 22 2014, 11:45 AM)
Yea right want some calculation on the said 13%... like this you want ppl to buy ur show.. come on.. even you are a developer u want to keep building woth 13% margin profit?

you have not answered on the flippers side on infkating the property yet.. juatified? Any cost to bare.. flippers profit 25% upon vp.. why bother being developers with 13%..
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There is no doubt sometimes flippers earn more than developer but that is just limited to one or few propertiesif the flippers able to sell it out. But developer built not just one or two houses. They built a lot, probably 50 to hundreds n each unit if make 100k, one project makes few millions...

I got one developer friend who once jokes over a bakuteh breakfast that one of his house developed under his project sold to another friend at RM350k but now my other friend sold it out at 550k. He jokingly said that he built one house also dont earn that much n my other friend only do some paper work n earn more margin than the one who built the entire house.


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post Apr 22 2014, 02:51 PM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Apr 22 2014, 02:44 PM)
In my company's cost plus contract, the plus is only 5%-8%. but contract value is in bil.
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My company gross profit margin only less than 1-2% but we make more than half a billion net profit end of the year.
Tigerr
post Apr 22 2014, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Apr 22 2014, 02:36 PM)
used gold bar.  icon_idea.gif
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Chocolate bar got a lot......laugh.gif
Tigerr
post Apr 22 2014, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Apr 22 2014, 02:00 PM)
Sorry lah Uncle ! Those were the day lah not same anymore, property price crash wouldn't result economy crash as now economy is more versatire, they many sector to support the economy, good also economy to reboot every now & then or else can't have new oppotunity, same old bunch controlled the economy, Ur time famous PM Tun M also said property developement doesn't contribute much to the country economy, as mostly employing foreign workers & introduce no new skill than Malaysia do not already mastered.

Uncle time economy depends on few sector only mah, now many many sector, gadget & smartphone/tablet alone also huge market lah !  whistling.gif
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Uncle never mentioned properties crash ll result in econony crash. Uncle only said hoping econony crash to result in properties n share price to crash so that can go in pocket some fire sales....read properly n don't mix with other's comment together...laugh.gif
Tigerr
post Apr 22 2014, 05:48 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Apr 22 2014, 05:37 PM)
laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
RM1 Billion x 10% = RM100Mil (Developer)
RM750K x 30% = RM225K (Flipper)
RM20K x 50% = RM10K (Nasi Lemak seller)
Only the dumb go for 50% profits or basing percentage return to decide wat to do.....
laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
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Hoi, the nasi lemak seller is not dumb lar...if the nasi lemak seller can franchise it, can make more than the developer yo.

brows.gif
Tigerr
post Apr 22 2014, 07:31 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Apr 22 2014, 07:01 PM)
Er......can give something related to malaysia arrr ?

Last time sub-prime, DDD show info, bubble bursting...
Euro crisis, DDD show info also, bubble bursting...
Then Iceland, Ireland, Spain, Greece, Italy, Portugal going to bankrupt, DDD show info also, bubble bursting...
Then Gold price fall, DDD show info also, bubble bursting...
Then Japan deflation, DDD show info also, bubble bursting...
Then USA QE tapering, DDD show info also, bubble bursting...
Then now China (still grow by 7%), DDD show info also, bubble bursting...


But malaysia property price still up there ! WTF !


DDD never tired, I read those overseas news also tired liao  yawn.gif
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U have been scammed by DDD camps...laugh.gif
Tigerr
post Apr 22 2014, 07:31 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Apr 22 2014, 07:01 PM)
Er......can give something related to malaysia arrr ?

Last time sub-prime, DDD show info, bubble bursting...
Euro crisis, DDD show info also, bubble bursting...
Then Iceland, Ireland, Spain, Greece, Italy, Portugal going to bankrupt, DDD show info also, bubble bursting...
Then Gold price fall, DDD show info also, bubble bursting...
Then Japan deflation, DDD show info also, bubble bursting...
Then USA QE tapering, DDD show info also, bubble bursting...
Then now China (still grow by 7%), DDD show info also, bubble bursting...


But malaysia property price still up there ! WTF !


DDD never tired, I read those overseas news also tired liao  yawn.gif
*
U have been scammed by DDD camps...laugh.gif
Tigerr
post Apr 22 2014, 08:05 PM

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QUOTE(AllnGap @ Apr 22 2014, 07:45 PM)
najib is pumping the economy via loans.
our country's debt is increasing by RM 100bil every year.

so i'm asking you back, how long can he do like that, but u dint answer me, u just say it will go UUU. laugh.gif
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If he can do it for another 5 more years....will u miss the boat 5 more years????
Tigerr
post Apr 22 2014, 10:03 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 22 2014, 09:36 PM)
A very simple question to yourself.. 5 years down the road.. will you buy ah?or buy new launch?

RM 600sq x 780 sq=  Rm 468k

5 year old service apartment
down payment  required= 46k
legal fees ( loan & s&p) = around 12k
stamp duty ( loan & s&p)= 15k
Others = 3k
2 roomer
Total= 76k cash in hand spend within 4 months for s&p to complete..

why not the buyers think like you...? Buy saville @ future 5 years launches ? Low entry.. and new unit.. new design.. mb better location too..
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u think everyone are like u that cannot high entry? If everyone cannot afford high entry price, those flippers should have die already....instead many of flippers can sell out higher which u cannot comprehend.

Tigerr
post Apr 22 2014, 10:21 PM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Apr 22 2014, 10:00 PM)
you have not calculate reno, furniture, etc...easily another 100k...as ufo said, you better rent. Move every 3 months. look for new units. toilet everything new. siok nya tongue.gif
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Many people at my place, buy a house n reno can easily dump in 400k - 600k cash...


Tigerr
post Apr 22 2014, 10:39 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 22 2014, 10:32 PM)
In case you have not forgotten.. there is a question pose to you..

and another fact as well.. subsales dun get 90% finance margin.. normally 80% or lower..

that makes the initial 76k.. to another 46 k assuming 80% so total dp alone 122k..

could you please answer for the benefit of all?
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May be I can chip in a bit.

for new graduates may be this is a difficult choice to buy sub sale. However, there are another group of buyer who are already 35 or above, buying subsale even with 80% or 70% loan margin is not a big deal. There are actually quite a lot of this people. If u dont know then, probably your circle of friends are all abang adik. Go out and see more n learn more.

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