QUOTE(gspirit01 @ May 3 2014, 01:35 PM)
I rephrase the following:
- Mr.A
speculated $500K (90% loan) to buy a property and
speculated $500K in stock market, let say recession hit :-
1) 500K property drop to 400K, buy Mr.A still able to serve installments,
but the rise back is very slow.2) 500K shares holdings in hand drop to 250K (intrinsic value), still holding.
but the rise back is much faster.Which one is more risky?
Both are risky if one doesn't know what he/she is doing!
And the initial amount are different also.
1) initial amount = 50K, hence lost 200%
2) initial amount = 500k, hence lost 50%
Risk is measured by volatility. If it fluctuates more in the same period, it is more risky. If the ups and downs are more stable, it is less risky
So, by the above definition, property is less risky than shares (as bolded above).
Another point to assess the risk is to compare the investment amount like to like. Your cash investment in property is 50k, while your share investment is 500k. How to compare the risk like that ?
Also to compare the risk, historical data is very important. Take stock as example. The benchmark KLCI has went up to 1100+, dropped to 200+, then up to 1800+. It is like see saw. For gold, it has went up to $800, dropped to $200+, went up to 1800+, come down to $1100, went up again to 1300+. Lagi see saw. Whereas property has a steady increase and steady decrease in single digit %. Only until recently the rise is in the 10%-20% increase
So, I would say property risk is much lesser for malaysian market. We haven't seen the so called "crash" in property market as compare to the real crash in KLCI