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 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market V5, Are the signs already there in Malaysia?

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SUSNew Klang
post May 3 2014, 01:29 PM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ May 3 2014, 01:26 PM)
If malaysia turn into hudud.

using local or internationsl  bank money to invest local property is nightmare. Do you realised it?
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Not related to property bubble. You have a choice to sell everything and ship your money where you like.
SUSNew Klang
post May 3 2014, 01:31 PM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ May 3 2014, 01:27 PM)
I am from Pahang.

i invest in bb and cheras.

i said bb is more risky.
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Your risk assessment. Get an expert to validate.
gspirit01
post May 3 2014, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ May 3 2014, 12:27 PM)
Argument 2)
Real Estate is relatively stable than stock / money market in long run, putting money (cash or leveraging) is safer (less risk) than other options (except FD).
- Mr.A spend $500K (90% loan) to buy a property and spend $500K in stock market, let say recession hit :-
1) 500K property drop to 400K, buy Mr.A still able to serve installments
2) 500K shares holdings in hand drop to 250K (intrinsic value), still holding.

Which one is more risky?

There is no answer to it, it depends on how you define RISK.  wink.gif
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I rephrase the following:

- Mr.A speculated $500K (90% loan) to buy a property and speculated $500K in stock market, let say recession hit :-
1) 500K property drop to 400K, buy Mr.A still able to serve installments, but the rise back is very slow.
2) 500K shares holdings in hand drop to 250K (intrinsic value), still holding. but the rise back is much faster.

Which one is more risky?

Both are risky if one doesn't know what he/she is doing!

And the initial amount are different also.
1) initial amount = 50K, hence lost 200%
2) initial amount = 500k, hence lost 50%

SUSUFO-ET
post May 3 2014, 01:48 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ May 3 2014, 01:35 PM)
I rephrase the following:

- Mr.A speculated $500K (90% loan) to buy a property and speculated $500K in stock market, let say recession hit :-
1) 500K property drop to 400K, buy Mr.A still able to serve installments, but the rise back is very slow.
2) 500K shares holdings in hand drop to 250K (intrinsic value), still holding.  but the rise back is much faster.

Which one is more risky?

Both are risky if one doesn't know what he/she is doing!

And the initial amount are different also. 
1) initial amount = 50K, hence lost 200%
2) initial amount = 500k, hence lost 50%
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Ok tis is one of the opinions
Tigerr
post May 3 2014, 01:50 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ May 3 2014, 01:35 PM)
I rephrase the following:

- Mr.A speculated $500K (90% loan) to buy a property and speculated $500K in stock market, let say recession hit :-
1) 500K property drop to 400K, buy Mr.A still able to serve installments, but the rise back is very slow.
2) 500K shares holdings in hand drop to 250K (intrinsic value), still holding.  but the rise back is much faster.

Which one is more risky?

Both are risky if one doesn't know what he/she is doing!

And the initial amount are different also. 
1) initial amount = 50K, hence lost 200%
2) initial amount = 500k, hence lost 50%
*
if the share suffer PN17 n enters into chapter 176 n finally delisted, u can kiss good bye to the 500k cash. But holding the 500k is different, the house ll not be gone no matter what...even get burnt also got insurance to cover back.

SUStikaram
post May 3 2014, 01:58 PM

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QUOTE(Tigerr @ May 3 2014, 02:50 PM)
if the share suffer PN17 n enters into chapter 176 n finally delisted, u can kiss good bye to the 500k cash. But holding the 500k is different, the house ll not be gone no matter what...even get burnt also got insurance to cover back.
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Share can fast fast sell ma.

What if the propery built sampai 80% and developer missing in action n u got to pay the bank

This post has been edited by tikaram: May 3 2014, 01:59 PM
SUSUFO-ET
post May 3 2014, 02:02 PM

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QUOTE(Tigerr @ May 3 2014, 01:50 PM)
if the share suffer PN17 n enters into chapter 176 n finally delisted, u can kiss good bye to the 500k cash. But holding the 500k is different, the house ll not be gone no matter what...even get burnt also got insurance to cover back.
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The main different between 2 is the initial capital outlay (cash)

Showtime747
post May 3 2014, 02:05 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ May 3 2014, 01:35 PM)
I rephrase the following:

- Mr.A speculated $500K (90% loan) to buy a property and speculated $500K in stock market, let say recession hit :-
1) 500K property drop to 400K, buy Mr.A still able to serve installments, but the rise back is very slow.
2) 500K shares holdings in hand drop to 250K (intrinsic value), still holding.  but the rise back is much faster.

Which one is more risky?

Both are risky if one doesn't know what he/she is doing!

And the initial amount are different also. 
1) initial amount = 50K, hence lost 200%
2) initial amount = 500k, hence lost 50%
*
Risk is measured by volatility. If it fluctuates more in the same period, it is more risky. If the ups and downs are more stable, it is less risky

So, by the above definition, property is less risky than shares (as bolded above).

Another point to assess the risk is to compare the investment amount like to like. Your cash investment in property is 50k, while your share investment is 500k. How to compare the risk like that ?

Also to compare the risk, historical data is very important. Take stock as example. The benchmark KLCI has went up to 1100+, dropped to 200+, then up to 1800+. It is like see saw. For gold, it has went up to $800, dropped to $200+, went up to 1800+, come down to $1100, went up again to 1300+. Lagi see saw. Whereas property has a steady increase and steady decrease in single digit %. Only until recently the rise is in the 10%-20% increase

So, I would say property risk is much lesser for malaysian market. We haven't seen the so called "crash" in property market as compare to the real crash in KLCI

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