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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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icemanfx
post Jan 19 2014, 12:01 PM

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From number of people attended the seminar implying;
1. Many made profit earlier and addicted.
2. Many are hungry for more investment.
3. Many are unaware price stagnant started in 2013 and expecting more price increase.
4. Many new comers wanted to join in.

Despite advise from experts, many will continue to invest believing they know better. Bubble will continue to grow from these group on investors alone regardless of genuine demand or general economy until many could no longer hold for the next suckers.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 19 2014, 12:09 PM
icemanfx
post Jan 19 2014, 12:18 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 19 2014, 12:10 PM)
Greater Fool Theory,  constantly find a greater fool to buy your property until the last one end up as greatest fool, same like those who bought oil at USD 148 during 2008.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

Now properties become no.1 pyramid/Get rich scheme/pak man telo in Malaysia. ..lol
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To people who have made profit or have friends that made profit, the money and opportunity is REAL, rare and won't give up for anything.
icemanfx
post Jan 19 2014, 01:15 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 19 2014, 12:32 PM)
well, the interpretation can be...

"in lyn, a random poll suggested that 62% are still invested and do not think prop prices will fall or prop market will slow down." tongue.gif
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To overcome short term price stagnant, believe many will focus their investment on properties to be delivered in a few years time. Hence, expect a drop in subsales demand but higher demand on new launch.
icemanfx
post Jan 19 2014, 03:03 PM

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QUOTE(value_investor @ Jan 19 2014, 02:24 PM)
The more ppl vote no bubble, the closer we are to a bubble burst. This is standard bell curve trend, which means we have reach the peak of the curve. What follows only down, since most ppl already invested no more buyers out there!
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With limited land, growing population, rising raw materials price and gst, investors believe and prefer linear growth trend and exponential growth trend.

People who studied mathematics or statistics knows nut about roi, cocr or making real money.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 19 2014, 03:06 PM
icemanfx
post Jan 19 2014, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(sk2000 @ Jan 16 2014, 11:33 AM)
Acroris SOHO is selling at 1000PSF++ now with RM4k cash back per month for 2 years from developer.
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With this rebate scheme, BBB continue! Price stagnant or demand drop in next 2 years is not a concern.

icemanfx
post Jan 19 2014, 04:30 PM

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QUOTE(SonicKimi88 @ Jan 19 2014, 04:14 PM)
Own stay or investment? will able to sale after VP still a question mark.
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Vp in 2017 or 2018, price and demand will be in UUU by then.

Many in BBB wanted to buy more but couldn't get loan. Damn the bnm for not allowing investors to support the market.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 19 2014, 04:40 PM
icemanfx
post Jan 19 2014, 05:15 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 19 2014, 05:04 PM)
No

it will all go down the drain.. bubble going bigger bigger and bigger.. for investment.. it going to be outright non sales as too high... and many cash already locked beneath... now developer launch already 640k new cheras condo.. there is really no room for investment..

"The end draws near", happy buying and investing
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To BBB, newly launched at 640k proved their foresight is correct, already paper gain on what they have invested. VP in 3 or 4 years means definite, higher gain and will retire comfortably by 35 y.o.
icemanfx
post Jan 19 2014, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 19 2014, 05:14 PM)
If one can't secure any more loan mean they r not qualify to be a investor,  at most a gambler,  bank don't give loan to gamblers,  maybe can try ah long since guaranteed earn. ..lol
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To some; Banks deprive investors opportunity so that they won't look embarrassed that investors could make a lot more than their educated and qualified officiers.

icemanfx
post Jan 20 2014, 01:17 PM

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QUOTE(HELLO HELLO @ Jan 20 2014, 11:25 AM)
His property business is around the world. He going to launch new project in kl city very soon. this is his second project in kl d...
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Since KL property price is so cheap, he should be buying not selling.


icemanfx
post Jan 21 2014, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(restful increase @ Jan 20 2014, 10:29 PM)
Properties located within 5 min walk to lrt/mrt and/or big & well run shopping mall will continue to attract tenants & alsi ease of sale...
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As if No more development near lrt or mrt stations.
icemanfx
post Jan 21 2014, 07:36 PM

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QUOTE(restful increase @ Jan 21 2014, 06:58 PM)
Yes..by 2020 when mrt lines 1 & 2 & lrt extention all up and running ekoheras, alila@bangsar & kl gateway studio which r now priced rm500k n below will b considered cheap by 2020 standard. Our salary increase may not keep up with inflation rate but our investments in properties strategically located near to lrt & mrt will keep up with d inflation rate or even outstrip it.
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Have you work out number of new supply within walking distance from lrt/mrt stations? How many people will move from their current location to be near to lrt/mrt stations?

How many can sustain installments until 2020?

In developed city like Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, London, Paris, Berline, etc how much are the "premium" paid to be near to mrt stations?

QUOTE(restful increase @ Jan 21 2014, 07:24 PM)
my view is that once the mrt, lrt extensions n high speed train hv materialised then these transportation linked projects will peak in price, then its a good time to sell. By then they may hit rm1400 psf.
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As if supply is inelastic.



This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 21 2014, 07:39 PM
icemanfx
post Jan 21 2014, 08:18 PM

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QUOTE(restful increase @ Jan 21 2014, 07:59 PM)
Its a safer bet than the other highrise that are located further away fr the transportation rail. Star 8 jan 14 reported 40% increase in passengers for ktm, lrt and monorail users in 2013 in comparison to 2012. This trend will continue.
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Out of total working population in kv, how many of their work place are within walking distance from lrt/mrt station?
icemanfx
post Jan 22 2014, 02:24 AM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 21 2014, 09:10 PM)
Dont pick on amaya so much lee. I just got a call from somebody offering 660k for my unit. I just dont want to sell. And somebody bought a unit already if u refer in the other forum. I know everyone wants to buy Amaya but it just that nobody wants to sell. And empty units? Of course we only got keys a few months ago. Some just got 3 months ago. Some still wait for defect to rectify..that is why it is still empty but not for long.
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Some developers or syndicates engaged re agents to call up owners offer to buy at high price, while they are unloading their unsold units at lower price.

Asking price without transaction is syok sendiri, believe demand is better judged by how fast unit is sold.



icemanfx
post Jan 22 2014, 11:36 PM

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QUOTE(twincharger07 @ Jan 22 2014, 11:00 PM)
wait until tongkat day and then the storm came.. after 50 years of inflation, wonder u still cen get it lower than today's price..  hmm.gif
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At high inflation rate, disposable income is reduced, property price may not necessary rise inline with inflation rate. However, prolonged high inflation rate will ended up in recession and property price is almost certain will fall in recession.

Historically over a period of 50 years, there will be periods when real property price is relatively cheap.

icemanfx
post Jan 23 2014, 04:58 AM

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QUOTE(twincharger07 @ Jan 23 2014, 12:05 AM)
historically after few financial crisis in msia, our house got cheaper than 50yrs ago during our ahgong ahma period or not? they bought houses few thousand only leh..  hmm.gif
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Guess you are gen Y and never experience recession. In this case, don't keep any cash.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 24 2014, 03:04 PM
icemanfx
post Jan 24 2014, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(kohts @ Jan 24 2014, 05:07 PM)
When dibs n no rgpt, complain bubble will burst n recession if no action taken. When action taken still want bubble burst and recession. Then what can be done to avoid bubble burst? sound like sour grapes
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Before 1997 crisis, everyone in the stock market believed they were genius, could make $$$ from nothing. Likewise, those who are in property are behaving the same.



icemanfx
post Jan 24 2014, 11:25 PM

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QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Jan 24 2014, 05:50 PM)
In 1997 crisis, many investors are gamblers, want to get rich overnight. Property investment requires longer term in nature.

For newly purchase properties from developer, it needs 3 years to complete. Even for subsales it would be preferably to hold more than 5 years to avoid RPGT.
Similarly if the share investors able to hold 3-5 years after the 97 crisis. They are better off and sure making fantastic profit.

The quick flipping glory days are over. Investors are advised to mentally prepare to hold longer.
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Buy to flip is not dissimilar to pre-1997 stock investor.

New launch take 3 to 4 years to vp, doesn't count as holding power especially those with dibs.

Among those who bought multiple units to flip, how many have other income to sustain all the loan repayment?


QUOTE(cooleq @ Jan 24 2014, 06:03 PM)
1997 financial crisis hit a lot to share market player. A lot of company become bankcrup to PN 17 and their share become penny stock. But for blue chip player who have holding power can still survive and make profit. For me you can't sustain in property investment if do not have holding power and buy property develop by lousy developer if if there is a crisis like 1997.
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Among those who bought multiple units to flip, how many have other income to sustain all the loan repayment?

icemanfx
post Jan 25 2014, 11:49 AM

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QUOTE(cooleq @ Jan 25 2014, 08:28 AM)
Actually it's not easy for people to get loan to service multiple units nowadays unless you can convince bank with your income,passive income,fd and cash reserve. There is a lot of rich people out there and I'm sure they now how to manage money above the average Joe and not put money in one basket. Even if you dare to have a multiple units it's not easy for loan approval unless u really have money. Now 3rd loan and above need to pay 30% down payment mean the multiple unit of property really have a strong cash in their pocket..But if you say that properties price will go down to 50% I'm sure average Joe also suffer.
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The weakest link are those gen y flippers who bought multiple dibs units before stringent loan criteria is enforced or took advantages of loop holes. The market doesn't need many of these people to depress the price when their properties taken vp.

QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 25 2014, 11:46 AM)
According to my friend, people are more willing to go for new launch, rather than subsale in this area. Many subsales around this areas are not sold for the past 2-3 yrs.  my frnd didn't say people dying inside.
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Buyers of subsales need to pay loan installment on completion, new launch can "hold" for 3 to 4 years. Hence, flippers preferred new launch.

It take 12 to 24 months from npl to auction, and some auction (e.g. good location) is not announced publicly, hence, few people are aware.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 25 2014, 11:57 AM
icemanfx
post Jan 25 2014, 03:20 PM

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QUOTE(twincharger07 @ Jan 25 2014, 01:56 PM)
I SAY.. IN PROPERTY TRANSACTION RATIO, SUBSALE TRANSACTION ALWAYS HIGHER THAN PRIMARY.. THIS YEAE WE MIGHT SEE THE RATIO ON SUBSALE TRANSACTION COULD FURTHER INCREASE.. DONT SKEW MY WORDS ..  READ MORE NEWS PAPER, STATISTICS AND UPDATE URSELF.
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In kv, number of subsale transaction should be higher than new launch as there are more numbers in stock than new supply. Opposite is true for JB.

Believe more accurate way to reflect market sentiment is the average period of time property on market before is sold, and % of transaction against number in stock in respective sector.

icemanfx
post Jan 25 2014, 03:36 PM

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QUOTE(cooleq @ Jan 25 2014, 03:14 PM)
For me nothing wrong about flipper either because they buy using their hard earn money and still within the law. I have my friend work in Multinational Company,Oil and Gas a flipper and other also want to be a flipper because they have money and work oversea. They don't have much time to be a land lord because the nature of their work which always busy and work in middle east. For me what's wrong to be a flipper even if property bubble they can still survive because they have a lot of cash..
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Flippers activity doesn't add value to aggregate economy except for developers to take advantage to price new launch higher than higher, depriving more people affordable house for their own stay or over stretched their liability.

After completion, residential properties don't add value or productivity to the aggregate economy, any additional loan repayment reduce corresponding disposable income of the house owner, the country and most people except banks will be worst off. Hence, after residential property boom, economic hardship is almost inevitable.

When crunch time come, flippers can lose all they want or go bankrupt and few if any will offer sympathy. However, their greedy action will caused more house ownerships in trouble and aggregate economy to suffer.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 25 2014, 03:58 PM

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