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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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icemanfx
post Jan 30 2014, 12:16 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 30 2014, 12:03 PM)
Actly I try to say. Property vs stock. The risk on stock is higher but can make money faster. Borrow or cash buy is diff story.

U dun play margin of coz will be low risk. Coz u can hold share. Pls be reminded listed comp can be disappear, 5 share become 1 share. Right ?
U buy land. Can land disappear ?. Or 5 acres become 1 acres?. If really die u still got the land. Right? If share really die.. Share become toilet paper. Right?  biggrin.gif
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If prime land is similar to blue chips, the risks to borrow to buy land is indifference from playing margin.

icemanfx
post Jan 30 2014, 01:29 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 30 2014, 01:11 PM)
The problem is land price wont fall la....
So your selling price always higher than loan amount...
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As if land is never bought overpriced.


icemanfx
post Jan 30 2014, 01:32 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 30 2014, 01:19 PM)
Right. Tis is go bk to very basic theory. Supply vs demand.
Land only will lesser n lesser.
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As if land reclaimation, redevelopment or public transport not available.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 30 2014, 01:32 PM
icemanfx
post Jan 30 2014, 02:45 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 30 2014, 01:46 PM)
The fact that today with land reclamation already ongoing and done... still continue to up.... look at the area in Penang near Pg Bridge... very expensive even though reclaim...

If that place got reclaim land... means the land area already very limited or almost exhausted... places like Sg and Penang... u dont see land reclaim project happening a lot in...say... Pahang? Or Sabah Sarawak?
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Property price in sg, japan and hk have dropped on occasion.

icemanfx
post Jan 30 2014, 04:59 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 30 2014, 02:56 PM)
House or land.
Land in spore n hk n Japan drop?
I only curious still got how many empty land in spore n hk especially in ong area
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Realistically, how many people or company have the opportunity to buy prime land? Use prime land as example for average joe is irrelevant.

icemanfx
post Jan 30 2014, 05:02 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 30 2014, 03:05 PM)
Not really that significant I guess even after like 8 rounds of cooling measures in Sg? What was the percentage drop? I the impact is nothing.... I have relatives and friends in Sg.... none complaining property price drop also....
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Guess you have missed recent news reports on sg property.


icemanfx
post Jan 30 2014, 05:39 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 30 2014, 05:19 PM)
Wrong, very relavent. U should think y tis group of ppl still buying land especially in prime area. In fact land price still increasing, no matter in prime area or outskirts.
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As if land is never over priced, zero holding cost and immuned to demographic change.

What about less prime land?

icemanfx
post Jan 30 2014, 06:51 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 30 2014, 06:00 PM)
Buy the land which got potential can covert to residential title in future. If can do commercial is the best. Of coz individual impossible can afford for prime land. Look for outskirts area but do ur homework first.

To be frank, a very experience land investor told me one thing. Sell land never with the collect price. Land is limited n the price Oway increasing. Maybe can be overprice at tis moment. Once no more land or less land at the surrounding area. Over price will become cheaper price.
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Guess the experienced land investor didn't tell; one need positive cash flow from else where to hold land and many lands need to hold for over 10 or even 30 years. With positive cash flow, there are many other investment options available.


icemanfx
post Jan 30 2014, 09:09 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 30 2014, 07:06 PM)
Lu Ada Tengok I punya post bo!? How many time I mentioned proper financial planning?? N no such big backside dun eat so much "lau sai" ubat.

Mabuk keh??
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People that know financial planning will only invest their surplus/free cash on land.

icemanfx
post Feb 1 2014, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 1 2014, 06:06 AM)
More assumptions about me from the DDD guys once they run out of ideas to counter. U must be really want a property so badly....but cant because miss the boat.
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"Miss the boat", sound familiar from gold discussion thread especially before the peak and the following crash.

May be "Miss the boat" is an indicator that the bull run is coming to the end.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Feb 1 2014, 10:56 AM
icemanfx
post Feb 1 2014, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 1 2014, 11:28 AM)
Maybe the bull has come to an end..but will it crash? No. If drop maybe a bit but no crash. I believe the price is right on the prime areas.
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Unlike stocks and commodities, property is illiquid, it takes years for price to bottom, hence price crash is unrealistic.

Further, during depressed period, subsales asking price remain unchanged but different story in foreclosure case. Hence, sellers use asking price as benchmark and buyers prefer foreclosure price. As there will be a huge price gap between buyer and seller, transaction volume will be reduced.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Feb 1 2014, 11:45 AM
icemanfx
post Feb 1 2014, 11:56 AM

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QUOTE(macguyver @ Feb 1 2014, 11:43 AM)
This topic "Is the bubble finally bursting?" shall not be created nor discuss in the first place as in reality not happening. Why create so much of negative opinion toward property price? Do you know property is one of the country economic backbone?

Simple question, what can you see the properties prices as of now compare to previous years? Increased right? So just face the reality.
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Construction industry is less than 8% of gdp. After completion, residential property doesn't add any value to gdp. For every extra $ spend on housing loan repayment, there is a $ reduction in disposable income. Hence, inflated house price is detrimental to aggregate economy.
icemanfx
post Feb 2 2014, 03:44 AM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Feb 1 2014, 11:56 PM)
Thanks! I read something about this as well...

I dont understand why other countries cant do the same as Malaysia? Is there any pros and cons between using foreign reserves vs raising interest rates?

Just trying to understand why other countries prefer not to use foreign reserve and vice versa for Malaysia...
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No politicians like to admit existence of any bubble until the crisis is uncontainable. Historically, kangkong gomen tend to act too little and too late.

QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Feb 2 2014, 12:03 AM)
Ok... I agree that in some cases there will be joint buyer... but that also means there is no bubble yet because still can afford? I mean end of the day even if it is joint purchase there wont be any loan repayment problem....

Also... I always have this question and maybe discussed before.... I think bank not so stupid... as long as bank can approve the loan... whether it is low end or high end flipper... as long as bank approve means no problem... it doesnt make sense a bank can blindly approve loan to someone who possibly cant pay in future...
What do you think of this? If we continue to have new buyer with bank approved loans.... what bubble are we talking about? Dont compare to US...I think our banks more diligent than US bank... smile.gif and furthermore after US subprime crisis... I think bank will learn from experiences and prevent this from happening...
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Dibs, discount, zero entry cost, 35 years tenure, etc allowed otherwise previously and currently disqualified borrowers to borrow. Wonder how do we classify this group of borrowers now?

QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Feb 2 2014, 01:29 AM)
U try to give many worst case scenario...
I try to provide positive points la ok?

What if the flippers continue to flip... u say if reach 1mil then left a small pool?

What if actually those who flipped earlier already earn 250k or 300k and they actually have that cushion to absorb it? Think about it... smile.gif I am not creating a scenario... this is a real life example I see... started with 250k property and slowly flipped and going higher until 1mil property.... u forgot this pool of ppl?
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From earlier success and elevated confident level, these flippers are more likely than not to pour back their profit and capital, borrow more to flip and anticipating of sure profit, spend more on luxury items. If previous stock and gold market is of any precedent, this group of flippers are the most aggressive.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Feb 2 2014, 04:14 AM
icemanfx
post Feb 2 2014, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(kamilnu @ Feb 2 2014, 10:53 AM)
Right. If you see the current situation, currencies of developing economies (not emerging) such as India, Thailand, Indonesia including Malaysia are taking a beating now due to anticipating of the Feds QE tapering.

BNM will play their cards closely and will not increase rates just because the MYR is near its all time low. BNM will strongly take into account the inflation rate in the country. Can't remember how much was the target inflation rate though. Somewhere around 3% thereabout.
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If turkey drastic increased in interest rate couldn't calm the market, bnm may have no choice but to follow, the world is more interlinked than most people aware.

QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 2 2014, 11:10 AM)
Good no more of these subprime and compare with sgpore thingy.
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Dibs, discount, zero entry cost, 35 years tenure, etc allowed otherwise previously and currently disqualified borrowers to borrow. Wonder how do we classify this group of borrowers now? rclxub.gif


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Feb 2 2014, 11:16 AM
icemanfx
post Feb 2 2014, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(Martinis @ Feb 2 2014, 03:24 PM)
the further ringgit depreciate, the higher property price will go...property is the best hedge against inflation
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Care to enlighten us how to hedge rm with assets priced in rm ?

icemanfx
post Feb 2 2014, 07:45 PM

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QUOTE(Martinis @ Feb 2 2014, 06:58 PM)
When ringgit depreciates, we have imported inflation. With inflation comes higher cost of building which translates to higher property prices and hence if you own property now, you are hedged.
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How much of building materials are imported? 20, 30,40,50,60,70%?


icemanfx
post Feb 2 2014, 11:24 PM

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QUOTE(Iam Power @ Feb 2 2014, 09:43 PM)
Personally i like investing in property...
Simply because land is getting scarce...logically and rationally a commodity that is limited in future will be valuable (particularly freehold land)

You can argue that it will be go down and etc..long last still it will go up and be higher than before..
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Why bother with property in kv and you should buy property in hong kong, japan, singapore as land there is more limited.


QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 2 2014, 09:53 PM)
Nobody ?.  I dun think so. A lot of cash rich ppl willing to do tis. Only thing how many % of cash flow will allocated to property especially land,  how % in share, how% in commodity n how % in cash.
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Either you are or learned from a "financial planner"?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Feb 2 2014, 11:28 PM
icemanfx
post Feb 3 2014, 10:24 AM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Feb 3 2014, 12:25 AM)
Its already slowed down. Those buying for short term investment now are gonna experience a rude wake up call. In one utama today i heard on two occassions people talking in BBB terms. In the elevator a young girl (looked college age) was telling her bf how hot the property market was and they should invest before its too late (you know the kind of college kids that say "dy" instead of "already"). Another uncle was in a restaurant telling his daughter how good it is now to invest in property. They all talked so loud and with conviction as if they wanted to share their knowledge with the crowd. When it becomes like this you know the market is peaking.
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When people are blind by greed is like "there is a sucker born everyday", it is almost certain, the property bull run is coming to the end.


QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 3 2014, 02:10 AM)
Because so many people were affected by the crisis, invested heavily on stocks. Need to settle their debt fast and need to sell the house fast. There were no massive layoffs from any big company. Ok then let me ask you this, was the so call crash because of the bubble? No. There was no firesale of properties. Everybody that i know still has their family house back then. Unlike in the US, u will know somebody who sold their house because of the subprime crisis.

Defintely not a property crash for me. And the crisis in 1998 was not subprime like the US, bear in mind that.

When u bought cheaper, if we can believe it, how much cheaper was it? Where? Need to know that too when u say so many u bought. Talking on area that i am familiar, lelong house were from bankrupt businessmen. If u buy so many, how many? 5, 6, 10?

PS i was a clever baby.
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Believe no subsale seller's asking price is below their cost, expenses and even profit. However, in foreclosure market, transact price could be 40% below market or developer price. To subsale seller, price remain stagnant but not for foreclosure buyer.

QUOTE(CK15 @ Feb 3 2014, 09:35 AM)
Seriously, I also interested to know what type of property BBW will buy? What location(s)? what developer(s)? and what is the right price?  hmm.gif
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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 3 2014, 09:52 AM)
Wait for BBW to reply. I oso very interested.
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If BBW is not rushing, in his line of work, he has opportunity to pick the property and price that he fancy. One will be surprised foreclosure unit can be very cheap in bad time even in prime location.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Feb 3 2014, 10:28 AM
icemanfx
post Feb 3 2014, 07:04 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Feb 3 2014, 06:59 PM)
Anyway, that is just me. Just looking at the investors' point of view. All about numbers, dollar and cents. In fact, others are not doing any better (maybe some can do slightly better than amaya). So, it is not just amaya but the whole of KV. From the rental point of view, most apartments and condo are overvalued
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If rent is enough to cover loan repayment, most if not all tenants would have bought.

Many inexperienced landlord tend to neglect agent fee, idle time, repair cost, etc.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Feb 3 2014, 07:15 PM
icemanfx
post Feb 3 2014, 07:19 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 3 2014, 07:16 PM)
And some owners just left it idle and do nothing. They say they start worrying about it after chinese new year. U can imagine the holding power.
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Leaving property idling doesn't necessary mean have strong holding power.


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