QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Dec 29 2013, 12:05 AM)
tat3179,
What is a crash?? A drop of 10%?? 20%?? 30%?? 40%?? 50%??
Given that the property price had went up by 80% over the last few years and Malaysian's income did not went up by 80% over the last few years,
A) So, the property price increase is not sustainable by local people.
B) Can you safely assume that there is enough foreign demand to sustain this??
C) Or, you are assuming that there are enough oversea Malaysians that come back to retire in Malaysia??
You have to look at the property market as 2 separate markets: Local market and foreign market.
1) Property that will only be bought local people.
2) Property that has demand from both local and foreigner
And, there are overlap between them.
I do not know the answers. I have only questions.
Dreamer
Loads of people here thinks crash ala US during the subprime crisis.
You know, like in Las Vegas, Miami or Detriot.
Firstly, I think property prices will likely correct itself to the level that normal people could maybe afford them. There is still demand for props in this country, just not at this kind of high prices. At what level of correction, well we will have to wait and see.
Secondly, unlike US banks, our banks did not lend out money for mortgages recklessly, the US banks lent out billions to NINJA borrowers. Our banks are much more strict and BNM did a good job controlling them for the past few years.
Thirdly, yes there is demand from overseas for our props. Problem would be the anti foreigner actions taken by the government to stop prices from rising further, like the 1 million bar. Foreigners don't really invest that much here. Around 500k or so the foreigners are interested.
It may surprise you that despite all the griping about unfairness, many Malaysians decide to keep their citizenship instead of relinquishing it. So many also invest props here because to them it is cheap. Whether they come back is another story.