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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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SUStat3179
post Dec 26 2013, 12:51 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Dec 26 2013, 12:20 PM)
I'm very much more afraid of property crash now that tat3179, which used to be a big bear, is now a big property BULL!!

Number 1 sign of a crash is big bear also becoming bull.....lol
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I doubt I am a prop bull. I still invest, but I am not optimistic that the prices will continue to rise as it is next year.

On the other hand, I changed my mind about DDD camp. I doubt the market will crash like you hope it would be.

Slight adjustment downwards are more likely then followed with a period of stagnation until Zeti or Ah jib gor beh tahan and stimulate the market a bit (if they can).

Again, for me, props is always about location location location.

And what type you of props.


SUStat3179
post Dec 26 2013, 02:11 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Dec 26 2013, 01:56 PM)
LOL.......

I didn't predict the market will definitely crash? Don't put words in my mouth.

Still, not looking too rosy now eh. LOL  laugh.gif
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Nope. This is to be expected.

But we will see. Malaysia is highly dependent on the building sector to keep the GDP growing.

If the market cools dragging the general economy down with it, I expect Najib will reverse course pretty sharpish.

Especially with cost of goods rising, the last thing he needs is an economic slowdown that will effect jobs.

I for one, are not worried either way.

If the prices drop, good.

I got a few target in mind to acquire actually.... biggrin.gif
SUStat3179
post Dec 26 2013, 02:15 PM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Dec 26 2013, 01:19 PM)
lol I was about to comment on this  tongue.gif
before he bought the apartment super bearish, after that suddenly became a bull.
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Bearish? Perhaps then. But I can change my mind, can I not?

Also, since when was I ever super bull? biggrin.gif

You don't know my portfolio and my holdings, do you? biggrin.gif

Anyway, say whatever you want. I know I am fine however the worm turns.

If the prices drop, good. I can acquire some more.

You can keep waiting in the sidelines if you wish. It is a free country after all.
SUStat3179
post Dec 26 2013, 02:17 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 26 2013, 01:45 PM)
Many like to "bull" here, says very steady no worry the moment someone post not so good news,  heart pausing & start cursing people die of heart attack..

LYF seem to attract lot of low standard forum members,  yes tat3179 & Donald Trump (wannabe) u 2 r included.
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Bro chill bro...this is a forum, not a life and death arena.... biggrin.gif

Remember your kids at home man! biggrin.gif
SUStat3179
post Dec 26 2013, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Dec 26 2013, 02:49 PM)
dont get worked up over my statement ok..you are rich we all know. thumbup.gif
just echoing joeblows statement below.
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Whatever in my replies shows that I am worked up? biggrin.gif
SUStat3179
post Dec 27 2013, 10:21 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Dec 26 2013, 07:37 PM)
Saw this a few minutes ago (from Bank Negara).

[attachmentid=3786889]

Having one housing loan is already a concern for me, my salute to those with 3 or more housing loans!

If you have the 2013 report from BNM, please share. Thanks.
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I think what it means that when BNM implemented the 60-70% LTV, the number of borrowers with multiple housing loans fell and did not go back to the same heights pre-LTV.

This is strange. I thought BNM only implemented the 70% LTV only 1-2 years ago? hmm.gif

Nevermind, it has its intended effect.

I reduces unnecessary borrowings and contains the bubble.
SUStat3179
post Dec 27 2013, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(chubbyken @ Dec 27 2013, 11:26 AM)
Yes, in a slower pace. Tempted to buy again but a bit worry about the outlook. Dont want to trap my limited capital. Dilemma.
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since the price is slowing you can afford to wait...

look see look see first....
SUStat3179
post Dec 28 2013, 12:14 PM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Dec 28 2013, 11:47 AM)
No worries. We still have the rich folks to sapu everything.
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Rich folks always sapu everything when there is a firesale.

Stocks, property and companies.

That's why they are the rich
SUStat3179
post Dec 28 2013, 01:03 PM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Dec 28 2013, 12:55 PM)
The true rich remain rich because they are savvy. Sapuing everything just because they are cheap isnt always wise laugh.gif
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When I mean everything I don't mean "everything".

Everything meaning everything of things worth having.

Anyway, you get my gist.

Point is, if you have a valuable asset, you don't have to,worry whether prop prices will go up or fall.
SUStat3179
post Dec 28 2013, 01:09 PM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Dec 28 2013, 01:08 PM)
Oh yes you do because your asset isnt valued in isolation. brows.gif
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Just know what you are buying and you will be fine
SUStat3179
post Dec 28 2013, 05:05 PM

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Aisey....since when does UUU and DDD argument became subprime or not subprime argument wan ah...biggrin.gif?


SUStat3179
post Dec 28 2013, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Dec 28 2013, 05:16 PM)
Have to show some capabilities in memory ma. But soli hard.  I have given back all mine to teachers. laugh.gif
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Aiyah this is for sure...next year....very few launches by developers.

Prices will stagnate. Current launches will have difficulty selling all units.

Heck, the subsale prices may also come down abit.

Basically, we will have a slowdown for at least another 6 months

DDD camp happy yet? biggrin.gif
SUStat3179
post Dec 28 2013, 05:46 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 28 2013, 05:45 PM)
Only when tat3179 desperately need to dispose his holding then i call perfecto .. whistling.gif
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Sure....but wait long, long loh..... whistling.gif
SUStat3179
post Dec 28 2013, 05:49 PM

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QUOTE(lamode @ Dec 28 2013, 05:47 PM)
2014 coming soon, a brand new year, peace everyone smile.gif
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Interesting time in store....


SUStat3179
post Dec 28 2013, 11:37 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Dec 28 2013, 09:56 PM)
Q4 2013 has been a very slow period for property market after the Budget 2014 announcement, but I see signs of market stirring in last few weeks.  By end of Q1 2014, the buying activity should be quite hot again if there are no new cooling measures announced.  Q2 2014 onward the market should even be hotter as buyers enter the market to avoid the 6% GST in 2015.
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Haha bro, now you sound over optimistic here.

Bear in mind the oversupply situation for condos as well.

I think more likely stagnation for a few years at least, gst or no gst
SUStat3179
post Dec 28 2013, 11:45 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Dec 28 2013, 11:39 PM)
Yes, I agree we have to be very careful with condos.  Landed is much safer, as developers cannot create land, but they can create space from the air via condos.
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Well, for me I couldn't afford landed.

Anyway, I think landed is riskier than you think.

You couldn't rent it out at a decent rate compared to condos, and there are no guarantees that you can find buyers easily because it is too damn expensive, I mean the newly launched ones.

Holding power is a must.
SUStat3179
post Dec 28 2013, 11:55 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Dec 28 2013, 11:49 PM)
BTimes,

1)  Is the property price strongly related to the material price or supply versus demand situation??

2) Can a sales manager tell you that the price of house will drop even it is true??

3) Will a person break his own rice bowl to tell you the truth??

4) Or, let me ask you a reverse question??  Is the property price increasing FASTER than the overall inflation rate?? If the answer is yes, then, the property price is not strongly tie to inflation rate.

I do not know whether the property price will go up or down.  But, neither what a sales manager say or price of material will matter into consideration.

Dreamer
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More likely property prices here has reached its peak and likely correct.

What I don't agree with is a property crash.
SUStat3179
post Dec 28 2013, 11:58 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Dec 28 2013, 11:54 PM)
You could be right that I'm too optimistic.  Holding power is indeed the key.  You might wish to consider getting a cheaper/smaller landed e.g. 20x70 terrace in a good neighbourhood in the suburb.  It is just a matter of time the city expands and growth enters the suburbs.  Chinese tend to love properties more, so I think Chinese community areas have good potential for price appreciation.
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Which suburbs? biggrin.gif

The desirable ones easily hits 600 to 800k for 20x70.

Way too expensive to invest.

Even semenyih, which is as far as the boondocks you can go, 400k plus for 20x60
SUStat3179
post Dec 29 2013, 12:00 AM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Dec 28 2013, 11:58 PM)
BTimes,

Chinese is emigrating out of Malaysia.  So, why would Malaysian Chinese buy more properties in Malaysia?? Or, are you talking about non-Malaysian Chinese??

Dreamer
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Plenty of Chinese emigrate, earn foreign currencies and reinvest some of their monies here.

Why? Because Malaysian props to them is damn cheap
SUStat3179
post Dec 29 2013, 12:17 AM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Dec 29 2013, 12:05 AM)
tat3179,

What is a crash?? A drop of 10%?? 20%?? 30%?? 40%?? 50%??

Given that the property price had went up by 80% over the last few years and Malaysian's income did not went up by 80% over the last few years,

A) So, the property price increase is not sustainable by local people.

B) Can you safely assume that there is enough foreign demand to sustain this??

C) Or, you are assuming that there are enough oversea Malaysians that come back to retire in Malaysia??

You have to look at the property market as 2 separate markets:  Local market and foreign market.

1) Property that will only be bought local people.

2) Property that has demand from both local and foreigner

And, there are overlap between them.

I do not know the answers.  I have only questions.

Dreamer
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Loads of people here thinks crash ala US during the subprime crisis.

You know, like in Las Vegas, Miami or Detriot.

Firstly, I think property prices will likely correct itself to the level that normal people could maybe afford them. There is still demand for props in this country, just not at this kind of high prices. At what level of correction, well we will have to wait and see.

Secondly, unlike US banks, our banks did not lend out money for mortgages recklessly, the US banks lent out billions to NINJA borrowers. Our banks are much more strict and BNM did a good job controlling them for the past few years.

Thirdly, yes there is demand from overseas for our props. Problem would be the anti foreigner actions taken by the government to stop prices from rising further, like the 1 million bar. Foreigners don't really invest that much here. Around 500k or so the foreigners are interested.

It may surprise you that despite all the griping about unfairness, many Malaysians decide to keep their citizenship instead of relinquishing it. So many also invest props here because to them it is cheap. Whether they come back is another story.

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