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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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SUStat3179
post Dec 12 2013, 10:08 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 12 2013, 10:01 AM)
Taugh property to get loan. 

I saw three bungalow projects, with CF and VP issued long ago, left vacant for a long time (at least over one year) already.  The price tags is >2 mils.  Out of 30 - 40 units completed, only 1 was occupied.  One of these projects is in shah alam, the paint started to fade already.
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2 mil bungalows subsale of course will take forever to find buyer wanlah... biggrin.gif

You wanna play multi million props you betta have the holding power...

Flip is for less than 500K props...hence studios is always hot buys whenever developer launch wanlah....
SUStat3179
post Dec 12 2013, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Dec 12 2013, 10:54 AM)
My fren sold his 6.8mil bungalow bout less than a yr ago. Vely niche but buyers r stil out there. Tats y vely few players. Most ppl buy bungalow for own stay. Vely few in the oledi vely few investors buying to flip. Holding power is important here.
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At that level, i think whether you can flip quick or not quick really depends on luck.

Like winning the lottery.

How many taikors out here can afford to live in a 6.8 mil bungalow anyway?
SUStat3179
post Dec 12 2013, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 12 2013, 11:22 AM)
So it comes back to my previous calculations. After vp, it takes +10% to break even after interest, rpgt, fees, etc. if hold for 1 yr. Price not up 10%, not rented = lose money.
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Rental also not easy.

At that level, who rents?
SUStat3179
post Dec 12 2013, 01:32 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Dec 12 2013, 01:22 PM)
Buy shop factory and land. Beta than any condo. Howeva, if kenot repay loan, dun buy any.
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Agree... nod.gif

6 mil plus can buy good commercial lot already...

but nowadays for good commercial the yield is less than 4%...might as well put in FD....
SUStat3179
post Dec 14 2013, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 14 2013, 06:33 AM)
Courtesy of malaysiaminion in the fennel.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/highlights/...lden-goose.html

Really really dumbfounded!
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Well, I guess the 1 million ruling really did us in.

At least there will soon be plenty of cheap props at iskandar soon....
SUStat3179
post Dec 15 2013, 09:28 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 15 2013, 08:16 AM)
In the U.S, Spain, Greece and U.K, foreclosure units could go below 60% of peak price. One don't need millions to pick up good properties. Those who didn't buy at peak unlikely to have bad CCris record hence bank loan won't be a problem.
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Really? From what I hear, the biggest problem in those countries is that banks hoard money like no tomorrow and refuse to lend freely.

It was not easy to borrow money unless you are very strong financially and until helicopter Ben start to print money like no tomorrow...
SUStat3179
post Dec 15 2013, 10:58 PM

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QUOTE(TiramisuCoffee @ Dec 15 2013, 10:32 PM)
I'm most curious, why the average Malaysians die die must own a property instead of comfortable with renting . Renting not a bad option actually. Don't like the place, can simply move out. Can upgrade residence without needing to worry about assessment, rpgt, maintenance fee etc etc...  yawn.gif
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You can always rent for me and pay my mortgage for me anytime... biggrin.gif
SUStat3179
post Dec 17 2013, 08:32 AM

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Yeah, this is a prop forum or a stocks forum...I thought stocks have their own space?

This post has been edited by tat3179: Dec 17 2013, 08:32 AM
SUStat3179
post Dec 17 2013, 12:24 PM

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[quote=Balrog,Dec 17 2013, 12:19 PM]
Good read with simple logic101
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[/quote]

Aiyo, this is an article from before US bubble burst. At that time there are a lot of bubble deniers, as to be expected (otherwise there would not have been a bubble in the first place!).

The author he criticized in the article, Robert Shiller - "Irrational Exuberance", turned out to be correct about the US property market. The second edition of the book in 2005 basically said the US bubble will burst soon (by looking at things such as ratio of median house price to median income). In 2006 bubble in the US did burst as we all know. By the way, Robert Shiller won the Nobel Prize for Economics this year.
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[/quote]

Bubble bursting also have to see area.

In places like las vegas, California and Florida badly effected.

In places like new York city it kept on going up
SUStat3179
post Dec 17 2013, 01:33 PM

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QUOTE(Balrog @ Dec 17 2013, 12:34 PM)
NY also dropped during the US bubble burst  - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NYSTHPI, but nowhere near as severe as others, perhaps only 20%.

But yes, agreed that it will strongly depend on locale. Surely most at risk in Malaysia at the moment is Klang Valley, Penang, Iskandar
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And NY now is one of the most expensive places to live now.

KV has plenty of demand for its properties, again, you have to see where.... biggrin.gif
SUStat3179
post Dec 18 2013, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 18 2013, 10:48 AM)
Penang Forum backs steps to cool house price rises

Penang Forum steering committee
11:35AM Dec 17, 2013

The steering committee of the Penang Forum welcomes and supports the recent announcement by the Penang state government to introduce new measures to cool the escalation of house prices in recent years.

The unsustainable rise in house prices in Malaysia, and many parts of the world, is due to many factors, some beyond the control of the local, state and even federal governments. A large part of it is due to the quantitative easing and loose monetary policies of advanced countries that have kept interest rates low.

In an environment of low or even negative real interest rates, many turn to property investment to beat inflation. Unfortunately then, housing is seen less as a means of consumption (a place for people to live) and more an asset class for investing and speculating. Just note the high percentage of unoccupied units in high-end residences. This is the basic reason for the huge increase in house prices.

Governments at different levels - federal, state and local - have different powers and instruments at their disposal to control house price increase and each must play its respective part. The federal government and Bank Negara have rightly introduced, though belatedly, measures to curb house price increases through lower loan to value ratio and incremental real estate property gain tax.

It is good that the Penang state government is introducing fiscal measures, in this case a levy on property transactions to curb speculative buying. The policy to impose a moratorium on sale of affordable, medium and low housing for limited period (five years for the former and 10 years for the latter) is also a right step.

As stated earlier, we encourage housing as a means of consumption, not a means for speculation. The latter hurts the ordinary people and benefits only a minority.

We urge the local council to also play its part to introduce measures such as incremental development property tax (higher development charges for high end housing and lower charges for affordable and low end housing), and stricter planning and approval conditions to discourage the over-supply of high end housing and encourage the supply of affordable and low end housing.

Hmm.. some sensible thought finally.  rclxms.gif
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And I bet all housing developers will be rushing to build lower cost homes with low profit margins if the proposals mentioned above are implemented.... tongue.gif
SUStat3179
post Dec 22 2013, 07:35 AM

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It seems like loads of buyers out there all waiting to pick up some "dead chickens"....
SUStat3179
post Dec 24 2013, 12:19 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 24 2013, 10:43 AM)
It take 2 to 3 years from first classified as npl to auction. Don't expect hike in numbers in auction til 2015 or 2016.
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Really ah?

Good lah...I go reload bullet first...start whacking come 2015, 2016.... biggrin.gif
SUStat3179
post Dec 25 2013, 11:12 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Dec 25 2013, 08:52 AM)
it is not logical anymore.. high rise which is obviously oversupply and if they cant sell it for half a million and above planning to rent the said property out for 2k-2.5 k so that can cover their loans.. u tell me ppl if really fork out that 2k-2.5 k why not they just purchase it so that they are paying something which they will be owing rather than to ease these flippers...

shop houses now 4 storey lately was a hit selling at RM2M by developers and then 5 M of course by high end flippers come one.. even with 2 M how much are u guys servicing the loan easily 9K pe rmonth.. of course again u will plan to rent it out at least 10k-15 k.

what kind of business you are operating haizzz.. most of the time even in mature area like puchong, shamelin, maluri, taman miharja, Klcc areas, plaza pekeliling and many unlisted needless to say.. only the ground floor is being occupied the 2, 3 4 floors are vacant.. arent you making loss if the are vacant.. the promises and targets propounded by developers and agents are mere tactics to hold you in to purchase the properties.. they themselves also don want to buy haizzz

shopping malls as well cant u guys survey so many shopping malls in KL viva mall, cheras central, 1 shamelin, southgate, spark desa petaling, carrefour, tesco midah, jusco malauri, leisuremall, jusco bandar mahkota, jusco cheras selatan (both of less that 5 kilometers away), mines, one south, and many more all also no tenant/shops open one go and see.. i still havent include the shopping malls inside Kl.. haizz where got good economy survey oversupply mannn
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Aww...a "Happy" New Year to you too... biggrin.gif
SUStat3179
post Dec 25 2013, 07:42 PM

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O mai, so many people here salivating to the prospect of a property firesale next year....

I wonder whether they would qualify for a loan when it does happen...
SUStat3179
post Dec 25 2013, 07:44 PM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Dec 25 2013, 07:44 PM)
Just a few months back u were salivating too bro
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Yeah man, I am salivating even now... biggrin.gif
SUStat3179
post Dec 26 2013, 10:04 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 26 2013, 09:33 AM)
There is a 222 residency condo went on auction before vp, that particular flipper must be really "tam kai" with DIBS also cannot hold..sigh

Anyone know what happened if auction also no taker ? would the bank sue owner or shall I say loan defaulter for bankruptcy, which bank can obtained loan defaulter other properties to cover their losses.

If indeed properties price coming down/ stagnation/demand slows down, surely bank would accelerates auction process.
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Bro....you sure you know what you are talking about? biggrin.gif

You do know that banks cannot charge principle payment on properties until full VP right? You only pay interests right?

And that DIBS covers the interest payment until VP? biggrin.gif

So since DIBS has been covered by the developer, on what grounds does the Bank get to foreclose and lelong a undercon prop.

I know you kan cheong wanna see the whole prop market collapse so you can finally join in with the rest of the investor, but if you wanna spread panic also please post with some sense lah....
SUStat3179
post Dec 26 2013, 10:19 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 26 2013, 10:17 AM)
I know owner only getting key on November or December but I saw it on Auction list already,  anyway I am not interest that particular condo.

I know u have some unsold unit & dead worry price will tumble, no need to white washing the present senario. .lol
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Oh yes, I am actually now busy buying paint and paint brush...

got loads of dirty walls to whitewash...

CNY coming mah.... biggrin.gif
SUStat3179
post Dec 26 2013, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 26 2013, 10:24 AM)
Cheh....some agent go use random AUCTION sign you so kan cheong already? biggrin.gif

both postings are very confusing, Iprop one states it is for rent, and then some irrelevant posting on how much psf.

Tell you what, why don't you actually call up the agent and ask for clarification and get back to us all here.

Also, bro releklah bro.

2014 prop market is going to slow down, and very likely stagnate.

Don't cum yet just because you saw ONE unusual auction posting in iProp or Propwall...

I am afraid if the market really crash 2014 you cum everyday then you die from heart attack how? biggrin.gif

Take care of your health bro.... biggrin.gif



Just to add...I checked the classifieds and it looks like VP given already, and plenty out there for sale....

Why are you so excited over ONE auction prop out of god knows how many out there for sale...? biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by tat3179: Dec 26 2013, 10:34 AM
SUStat3179
post Dec 26 2013, 12:47 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 26 2013, 12:09 PM)
By the time it crash I will be busy collecting sardines fish like in Lahat Datu..lol

No need to curse I die of heart attack just because I have different view point from you. .sigh
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No bro, not cursing....just advising you to rilek onli....

we don't want you to die from a premature death due to you being over kan cheong.... biggrin.gif

Afterwards you see so many dead fish, your heart beat so fast cannot keep up then keel over die then too bad already, right? biggrin.gif

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