tat3179,

<< Firstly, I think property prices will likely correct itself to the level that normal people could maybe afford them. >>

Okay.  How big do you think the correction will be?? Given that property price went up 80% but overall income level is stagnant or up by less  than 20%, the correction should be 80% - 20% = 60%??

Is 60% = a crash??

<<Secondly, unlike US banks, our banks did not lend out money for mortgages recklessly, the US banks lent out billions to NINJA borrowers. Our banks are much more strict and BNM did a good job controlling them for the past few years.>>

A)  But, the LARGEST RECKLESS SPENDER in Malaysia is THE GOVERNMENT that are seriously in debt.

B) How much POLITICAL LOAN on our bank??  That was THE PROBLEM on our banks during 97/98...

Dreamer

"Corrrect itself to the level that normal people could maybe afford them" could be looking at over 40% pricr drop.
If this is not subprime, what is? 
According to JPPH; numbers of apartment, service apartments and condo under construction or approved in JB is 180% of existing total number.
If cheap price is the reason for buying, why not consider Muadzam shah?
Very likely they have invested even more after their earlier success and more vulnerable to market mood change. Unless one knows the inside story, it sound like proxy for money laundry.

tat3179,

<< Government recklessness has no real bearing on prop prices really. That is a different subject altogether. >>

Come on...  The GOVERNMENT is the largest single employer in Malaysia.  Plus, 50+% of KLSE is owned GLC and GLIC.

A) If THE GOVERNMENT is running out of money, it will not affect the property market??  At the minimum, those civil servants and GLC employees pay raise and bonuses will reduce.  This will reduce demand.

B) THE GOVERNMENT will borrow / get money from the public and  reduce the amount of money that public has to spend.  This will reduce demand.

C) If THE GOVERNMENT has to borrow beyond EPF and so on, it will drive up interest rate.  This does not affect property market??

In fact, I will say that THE GOVERNMENT is the SINGLE LARGEST FACTOR that affect Malaysia property market.

Dreamer

tat3179,

<<The government when short of money will impose gst, raid the EPF if necessary, and cut subsidies, increasing prices, like what it is doing now.>>

And, that will not reduces the Malaysians' disposable income and consequently property demand??

<<Anyway, if you want to rant about the gomen, shouldn't you do it in RWI?>>

We are discussing property market here.  You know all those stuff are being done by the government.  And, somehow you do not think that it will impact the property market???  How does this make any sense??

Dreamer

What can spain govt do when their property market crash ? absolutely nothing.

Back to  our beloved land of boleh, remember tons & tons of abandoned project which some can still been seen till today, what can govt do ? absolutely nothing.

As i said many time property is not a stand alone sector, when other sectors fall so will property, if you naive enough to think govt will folk out money to save u all flipper wannabe, all i can say keep dreaming. .who it "might" just come true.

Never know they may just let it crash & ask their relative to sapu fire sales..lol

Ready but still vacant. Read on:
http://www.starproperty.my/index.php/articles/investment/completed-and-lived-in/
"One property which has dropped its prices is that of a beautiful condo development located behind my own. It sits on a hilltop within a quiet and low-density part of Sri Hartamas, within striking distance of Bangsar, Damansara Heights and Mont’Kiara. For many, you can’t get a more desirable address than that.

The property itself is gorgeous with all mod-cons: exclusive lift lobbies where unique access cards open only to your apartment, video intercom, fibre optic backbone, etc. Even though the development was completed about three years ago, however, more than 60% of this tower is empty.

“This tower was originally bought en-bloc by a tycoon who intended to re-sell for profit but it has taken some time because they are all big units like over 2,000, 3,000 and 4,000 sq ft,” says a source close to the development. “Now the bank is also involved in the sale, and although the developer’s last price was over RM800 per sq ft, the price has recently been reduced to RM720 per sq ft.”

Another condominium in a central Damansara Heights spot has been quite empty since being handed over in 2011. 92 out of 318 units are occupied, which works out to under 30%, says a source close to the development. In fact, there are still developer units available for sale."

More properties ready in 2014. And with a drop in general population buying power, we'll soon have Malaysian version of ghost towns / buildings. Flipping/ Buying enbloc days are over.

tat3179,

You are assuming that whatever happened in Malaysia is sustainable.

<< Yes, there is lots of poor in this country, but you also ignore e fact that Malaysia still has a sizable but squeezed middle class, and also quite a few wealthy ones.>>

And, they are sustained by what?? How much are they dependent on the government??  Let's put it this way, you and I do not know.  Let's hope that you are betting correctly...

Dreamer

That a good analysis on Spain. It's like a Proton income earner take a loan to drive a Merz.
But wait .... this scenario does exist in Msia. Msians with average income committed to property worth RM1 mill using wife, parants, uncles etc name to get loans approved. Not forgetting sharing amongst frens to venture into properties. Their "business" was high rental to cover the installment. Is this the scenario now? Do you know rental in Mont Kiara area drop by 50%?

So the above is private debt. How abt public debt (govern) ? Currently, Msia's sovereign bond is 50%++ of GDP. Do we wait until 100% and above to GDP like USA, Japan and UK to take measures and realize we are in trouble? Msia cannot afford to bcoz we are not superpower of the world. 50% of GDP is bad enuf.

USA, Japan and UK are economically & politically stronger so they can bend some rules. Spain was lucky bcoz they are tied to Euro .... if they weren't, Euro countries won't be bothered to support the PIGS. Iceland defaulted because they use their own currency, Krona.

It is NOT the matter of Msia (gov or private) able to borrow to the level of Spain. WE ARE ALREADY THERE!
http://www.consumer.org.my/index.php/perso...-it-sustainable

So when Msia private loans turn to NPL (Non-performing loans), our banks will be affected. That will definitely affect the businesses that survive under loans. Public listed company with bonds too. Credit crunch may occur or interest rate bankrupt the businesses. Ppl will lose their jobs.

So what happen to Msia financial market? Investors will flee our market on stocks, bond and direct investments. Our currency weaker causing inflation on daily goods. Food, petrol etc . Hard times will be upon us question is can each household weather the storm and survive?

Sovereign bond (gov debt) will experience high interest rate. Can our government pay the interest + principal to survive? At 50% debt to GDP, it gonna be a tough ride.

Why do you think BN gov suddenly increase price like hell. Petrol, Toll, sugar etc ..... They are using this tactic to increase revenue and pay off debt. They increase price first before the price increase due to factors mentioned earlier. They KNOW it is coming anyway so best to do it NOW than having economics forces dictates the terms.

Oppositions know this as well. But their policy is different. Get the GLCs and Petronas to pay for the debt instead of the rakyat. BN wants the rakyat to pay while maintaining profit to the GLCs.

It's ALL interlink. Politics & economy, property, industries, businesses, private, government ...... and it ALL comes down to DEBT. How to keep the right balance.

We don't have currency like Euro to constraint us means we can just print money to pay the debt. And still the gomen practise austerity. Why? Printing money is a bad move, especially a small country like ours.

If money printing is feasible, Iceland could have printed themselves out of debt. Instead they defaulted.

U may have strong holding power but many do not. And this fact is true across all races.

BEWARE... China-based developers are scouting lands around Klang Valley to build high density townships. Several fund managers are talking about the potential announcement by Country Garden's personal entry into the KL market.

According to my list, there are over 200 highrise projects waiting to be launched in 2014 across Klang Valley, and unless developers hold back to prevent bubble.

Those already planned will be launched. Developers will look see look see as well. Their land are under loaned as well. If they hv choice, they will postpone.

In 2014, I plan to go more clubbing and kau lui. (btw i'm gen Y version 2) Yeah, who cares about property.

But I now worked/employed in property and preparing launch of the company's maiden luxury project. No DIBS nvm, (since after PSF x small size, mostly >1mil anyway) as our target market is foreigners now - with the help of Datuk Gavin.

Developers may actually adjust our ~3-4% foreigners ratio to higher. More projects should entice foreign investors especially the Chinese, Indians and Middle Eastern stock.

Wont close down lah. All are here to share opinions.

It is interesting that the Govt has agencies like Syarikat Perumahan that will buy enbloc for selected projects with Bumi quota from developers. They sell or subrent to Bumi so that overtime they can have enough savings to buy the same unit.

The problem now is we have too many bureaucracy and it slows down things. One of the fastest way to bring Bumi participation is that Govt deploys GLCs/agencies to venture into real estate industry. Sime Darby is planning to do more this year with the imminent reveal of their upcoming biggest township of about 13,900 acres - Bandar Ampar Tenang, next to Xiamen University.

If you ask me, I would say many new unexplored areas are places to look out in 2014. Closer to city, there are those branded and megaprojects by established developers. Example: Malton's "Pavilion 2" in Bukit Jalil and Sime Darby's SJCC (showroom almost ready?)/.

SP Setia will look forward to submitting their DO for the Bangsar project (picture below) and completing their aquisition deal. They will also begin planning their Jalan Ampang project with hopefully an international architect.

By S P Setia | http://www.spsetia.com.my/corporate/corpor...resentation.asp

How will the property market fare in 2014?
Dec 31, 2013 - PropertyGuru.com.my

Malaysia’s real estate sector is expected to remain vibrant next year, especially its middle and low-end segments, due to overwhelming demand amidst limited supply.

In fact, the country only has 4.6 million houses for its population of 28 million, or one home for every six Malaysians. According to experts, the ideal number is 2.5 persons per dwelling, just like in the UK and Australia. But with supply at 100,000 units per year, it is going to take a long time to reach this figure.

To make matters worse, Klang Valley’s current population of 7.2 million is expected to surge to 10 million by 2020 due to rapid urbanisation rate.

In addition, more international investors are projected to invest in Malaysia, particularly its real estate sector, due to the country’s robust economy and sound fiscal policies.

Due to the nation’s lower total deficit, Moody’s recently affirmed the government’s bond and issuer rating at A3, and changed its outlook from stable to positive. This means the country can easily get loans at lower interest rates and investors are assured that Malaysia can repay its debt obligations.

However, 2014 could also spell trouble for the property market due to a possible slowdown in China’s economy, a rise in global interest rates and the tapering of the third round of quantitative easing (QE3) in the United States by January.

Another worrying problem is the slowing demand for high-end properties despite their abundant supply. In fact, the percentage of unsold luxury houses in the primary market is climbing.

Nevertheless, Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz believes that the country’s real estate sector can weather the storm just like what happened in the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. While the US housing market went bust during that period, its Malaysian counterpart remained resilient.

But the measure that could significantly affect the property market will likely be the upcoming real property gains tax (RPGT). Effective January 2014, the tax for houses sold within three years of purchase will be doubled from 15 percent to 30 percent.

For foreigners and companies, the RPGT is pegged at 30 percent for sales within five years and five percent for any subsequent year. But for Malaysians who sell their property within four and five years, the rate is at 20 and 15 percent respectively, while transactions after that period are exempt from the levy.

The six percent goods and sales tax (GST) which takes effect on April 2015 is also expected to affect the real estate sector even though the sale, purchase and rental of residential properties are exempt from it. This is because the sale of construction materials and equipment were not exempted, likewise for services used in building houses.

Meanwhile, the government will also be spending more on residential projects meant for low- and middle-income households.

For instance, the National Housing Department (NHD) under the People’s Housing Programme (PHP) has allocated RM578 million for 16,473 new dwellings, while another RM146 million has been earmarked for building 600 rental units.

In peninsular Malaysia, houses under the PHP are priced between RM30,000 and RM35,000, while those in Sabah and Sarawak have been pegged at RM40,500 per unit.

The government has also committed another RM1 billion for the construction of 80,000 additional homes under the 1 Malaysia’s People Housing Programme (PR1MA). These homes are 20 percent cheaper than similar units available in the market.

The authorities will also launch a new Private Affordable Ownership Housing Scheme, (MyHome). Under this programme, RM300 million will be given to developers so that they can build low- and medium-cost houses, subsidised at RM30,000 per unit.

They will also create an agency that will oversee the overall planning, policy and strategy formulation, as well as coordination and monitoring of all issues affecting Malaysia’s housing market. Dubbed as the National Housing Council, its members will come from state governments, federal agencies, SPNB, NHD and PR1MA, along with private sector representatives.

Farah Wahida, Editor of PropertyGuru, wrote this story. To contact her about this or other stories email farahwahida@propertyguru.com.my

http://www.propertyguru.com.my/property-ne...t-fare-in-2014-

You still can go for a medium cost apartment or even a low cost flat if you choose to live comfortably. 

Why are you only targeting those condominium or landed properties? 

Those who is rich and still believe BBB mode please go and ahead and buy more.. stop convincing the youngster to buy your ovetpriced property.. u are just killing them.. you yourself wont buy the landed at 780k.. what makes you tink those ppl below you can afford.. u just like developers just have intentuon to sell off your property invested.. even big boys aka developers apply ABS BRAKE..

I agree.. lor businesx oso no good in KV so many completed but empty units with a banner new ting is coming to the corner.. the famous OVERTIME BAR howmany close down.. puchong how many.. viva mall.. southgate.. 1 shamelin.. how many bubble tea shop close down ... along kajang within 5 kilometer how many giant di..

Tesco kajang.. aeon mahkota cheras.. aeon cheras selatan..metro kajang.. metro point.. new mall opposite paparich mahkota.. giant yulek..jaya grocer cheras central...leisure mall giant...tesco midah.. tesco ampamg..econsave ampang..viva mall giant.. aeon maluri...southgate.. 1 shamelin..numerous service apartment shops cum shopping mall... SUNVELOCITY remind you.. 3 of yje above shopping mall are reopen due to wound up aka gulung tikar...

the competitio  is too unhealthy..MCD KFC already pull down their price... housing..

Talk sense,  don't personal attack other forum member please.

Your comment represent your good self.

Cool!!   
Mr Lawyer, since when u jumped off from DDD boat ah? Really interested what is the reason behind woh.....