Big Sign..
Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment
Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment
|
|
Nov 29 2013, 02:16 PM
Return to original view | Post
#41
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nov 29 2013, 02:20 PM
Return to original view | Post
#42
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(Paris Wong @ Nov 29 2013, 01:30 PM) Property inflated was because US sub-prime , do more research ! There r thing which too sensitive to post here, take a quick check on internet, u learn thing u never experienced in your fairy tales life. Not all because your mind of "black money" or illegal activities that lead to property inflation , your mind too shallow and "LOCK" with your IMAGINATION ! pleaseeeeeee We r number 2 in the world for "something", guess what it is. |
|
|
Nov 29 2013, 02:36 PM
Return to original view | Post
#43
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(tat3179 @ Nov 29 2013, 01:17 PM) Of course, if you really know whether now is the peak then you will be rich then.... Expert miss out the most crucial funding "Money from the Dark Site" ..blink2I recall in 2008 when the US crisis hit. I remember everyone said get ready, house prices gonna crash, we are gonna have a global recession soon, don't buy. No one anticipated helicopter Ben. Well, lets just say those who did not bought at 2008, 09 and 10 are laughing at us now..... Point is, you never know and you can never be certain... |
|
|
Nov 30 2013, 09:11 AM
Return to original view | Post
#44
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(tat3179 @ Nov 30 2013, 08:48 AM) Is that a bad thing really? Just like when price going up people wanna wait until it go up further to gain more profit, same go when price going down people wanna wait until it go down lower to obtain best deal.I think there is a genuine demand for props in the market. If the prices deflates a bit, it would encourage more buyers into the market. Kiasu attitude, been taught so since young. .. can't help..lol Genuine demand ? hmm small percentage.. insignificant.. .sigh Again many ignored other factor when talking about property, "I have strong holding power" Pay cut still hold ? Retrenchment still hold ? Business need cash urgently still hold ? Business bankrupt still hold ? No point defending price will not go down here, might as well source for more properties to BBB, just ignore the water blowing fellow here, since price would never go down why worry ? unless..ehemm..deep inside actually "" kecut"" a bit ..hehe |
|
|
Nov 30 2013, 12:20 PM
Return to original view | Post
#45
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(mroys@lyn @ Nov 30 2013, 11:37 AM) if you can afford it, just buy against inflation. Like food, property is necessity of life. Do you think food price will come down? just my 2 cents. Oil is essential in life - it tumble. How come 2008 oil price at USD 148 now hovering below USD 100 ? mind to share your thoughts ? more car r on the road but no need petrol ? how come 2008 says oil reserved very low suddenly found a lot ah. ?? Food price did go down - remember sugar, palm oil & rice price was extremely high in 2008 ? how come go down ? people don't eat all these anymore ah ? Its all hoax & artificial demand just like property, Malaysian population growth is at all time low, we don't have 5,6 or even 10 children like our parents, actual demand for property are actually quite insignificant to push the price like 2009-2012, mere speculation. |
|
|
Nov 30 2013, 02:17 PM
Return to original view | Post
#46
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(Wiredx @ Nov 30 2013, 01:43 PM) Funneh how some people who were openly propagating doomsday scenarios not too long ago are now making light of cautious sentiments Funneh how some were openly propagating Buy3, Up3, Whack3 not long ago are now making comments here comforting there worrying heart ..heheheSo long the Kiasu Buy & Kiasi Sell mindset r there, no worries it wouldn't drop..lol Maybe some good offer after Brazil World Cup mid of next year. .wakakaka. . |
|
|
|
|
|
Nov 30 2013, 04:58 PM
Return to original view | Post
#47
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(kurtkob78 @ Nov 30 2013, 04:40 PM) measure to cool down npls is to tighten the borrowing by making it harder for anyone to borrow from the bank. This include further tightening the LTV for property purchases. eg. 80% loan for 2nd prop, 70% from 3rd prop, 60% for 4th prop and so on. U mean central bank will not reduce the rates any further ? not don't think central bank will not reduce rate any further, correct ?Another way to reduce borrowings is to increase the rate. we may see increase of rates in the year 2014 by 0.3 - 0.5 or maybe even higher. as a result, rate of nps will increase. i dont think central bank will not reduce the rates any further as this will cause further increase in borrowing. additionally credit rating company will downgrade our banks' outlook Anyway S&P already downgrading a few big bankers of ours. http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...Investment.aspx http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium/ma...ngrade-20131128 The ratings agency cited prolonged run- up in housing prices and household debt level posing potential exposure to economic imbalances as reasons for the downgrade. “The negative outlook recognises the potential for deterioration in the banks’ asset quality and financial profile if the consumer debt burden proves excessive in an unfavourable economic scenario,” S&P said in a statement. If these doesn't spell an end to the party then u donno what is. Mind u when interest rate increase it doesn't mean only for Property loan, it covers all business loan as well, when boss/businesses cost increases ..hehe Strong Holding Power ..lol Bankruptcy or fire sales ur properties. .pick one. .wakakaka This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 30 2013, 05:15 PM |
|
|
Nov 30 2013, 08:14 PM
Return to original view | Post
#48
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 30 2013, 07:03 PM) well, u can't have it all the time, every time. the banks have been lending with taps fully open, making huge and incr profits every year, incr stock price, bonuses, so on... Rafizi & Azmin ! Sorry I don't believe. if it works endlessly there won't be poor souls on planet earth - ethiopia, mongolia, n korea can do the same, all can get rich! the shit will come, matter of when and how bad, i hope sooner than later. the longer it delays, more debt, more throwing away money, more money siphoning, more coverups, more lies, worse the implosion. tragic that few leaders are facing up to this. v r on thin ice... So does that mean to ensure UUU market continues, flipper have no choice but support Barang Naik rather than Price Reduced party ??? hehe. So I can predict GE 14 winner already. .lol |
|
|
Dec 1 2013, 10:08 AM
Return to original view | Post
#49
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(mroys@lyn @ Dec 1 2013, 09:02 AM) oil was @USD30+ in 2000 and now around USD100. everyone knows what happened in 2008, look at long term (>10yrs) trend if you are talking about investment against inflation. you have your own idea/opinion on the property investment and so do i, don't question mine as i never question your imagination. It took 5 years for oil price to merely climb 2/3 that of 2008 peak, but you still has not answer the second part of your own questions that food price will "never" go down ? so how come essential food price I mentioned like Sugar, Palm Oil today is lower than that of 2008 ? Actually the answer u try to avoid answering me by asking me do not question u is the same as what happened to property market now. Ask me any of my comment which u think is imaginative, I will not avoid like..cough2 This post has been edited by jolokia: Dec 1 2013, 10:20 AM |
|
|
Dec 1 2013, 10:48 AM
Return to original view | Post
#50
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(Kevin Chan @ Nov 30 2013, 10:59 PM) Greater fool theoryPopular among laymen but not fully confirmed by empirical research, greater fool theory portrays bubbles as driven by the behavior of a perennially optimistic market participants (the fools) who buy overvalued assets in anticipation of selling it to other speculators (the greater fools) at a much highers price. According to this unsupported explanation, the bubbles continues as long as the fools can find greater fools to pay up for the overvalued asset. The bubbles will end only when the greater fool becomes the greatest fool who pays the top price for the overvalued asset and can no longer find another buyer to pay for it at a higher price. Found this is Wikipedia. ... lol http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory http://appliedcapital.com/greater-fool-theory/ This post has been edited by jolokia: Dec 1 2013, 10:57 AM |
|
|
Dec 3 2013, 11:31 AM
Return to original view | Post
#51
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
|
|
|
Dec 4 2013, 03:27 PM
Return to original view | Post
#52
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
|
|
|
Dec 9 2013, 10:19 AM
Return to original view | Post
#53
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(plumberly @ Dec 9 2013, 09:51 AM) I have realised the need to read our newspapers with a kg of salt. They tend to give the nice side of the story. Why? I guess that is one of the license conditions, not to create fear/panic in the public. Look at the amount of property launching advertisement on newspaper, think journalists dare to write negative about their $$ source. In fact, I have written to the author of one online property article where the author painted a nice prosperous image of the real estate industry less than 5 months ago. I cautioned the need to follow the principles of journalism (e.g., truth, etc) as some commoners may take the article as the truth and buy properties now as not to miss the train. If the bubble bursts or loan rate goes up, some of them will be cursing themselves for believing that article. My 3 cents. If anyone buy property base on newspaper write they have themselves to blame. Having says that current properties market r similar to pyramid scheme, so long u can get someone at the bottom then no problem. Just don't blindly buy. |
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 9 2013, 10:28 AM
Return to original view | Post
#54
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Dec 9 2013, 10:16 AM) The key difference is that KL doesn't need Singaporean investors while Iskandar is almost totally reliant on Singaporeans. 70% of the properties in Iskandar bought by non Malaysians were purchased by Singaporeans. Safety is a important aspect for Singapore buyer, Condo is safer compare to landed.And yes if u were a Singaporean you would invest in Iskandar but would you invest in a RM2 mil (starting price) condo or would you invest in a landed property? That's my point. |
|
|
Dec 9 2013, 11:46 AM
Return to original view | Post
#55
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
|
|
|
Dec 9 2013, 11:53 AM
Return to original view | Post
#56
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Dec 9 2013, 11:00 AM) Singaporean now target Bangkok, London & Australia..hehehttp://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/3...-bangkok-condos http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busine...jor/818132.html |
|
|
Dec 10 2013, 02:37 PM
Return to original view | Post
#57
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 10 2013, 02:25 PM) Here are my contribution to the forum. If you are buying property based on loan this year, my calcs are like this: Rise the rental then..lol1 yr breakeven price: +10% 2 yr breakeven price: +15% 3 yr breakeven price: +21% (Tis exclude rental income) For high end prop, end of games! Buying a secondary properties at current inflated price & expect rental collection to cover your monthly installment is a wild dream. When secondary not laku expect new launch buyer to reach their limits soon. |
|
|
Dec 10 2013, 06:21 PM
Return to original view | Post
#58
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
http://www.starproperty.my/index.php/artic...ling-for-reits/
PETALING JAYA: Although local real estate investment trust (REIT) players can breathe a sigh of relief as they have been spared from the rather tough budget measures on the property sector, the coast is not all clear for the 16 REITS just yet. Malaysian REIT Managers Association chairman Datuk Stewart LaBrooy said industry players, especially those in the office sector, had to deal with an office market that was expected to remain challenging as supply continued to outstrip demand. In addition vendors of properties were asking for prices that were “totally unrealistic” with low cap rates in the face of a market that would be seeing an upward trend in interest rates and bond yields and with the looming oversupply of office space, rents were coming under pressure, Labrooy told StarBiz. However he stated that REITs with strong leases would be able to ride out the storm until the market stabilised but those that didn’t might be impacted. “REIT model works in volatile markets when they own assets that are acquired with long leases in place. Therefore most REITs can ride out the short term volatility evidenced in the current market. “It’s the developers that build office space on speculation and have to hold their assets empty for long period of time on high gearing that will face huge problems in such markets,” Labrooy explained. Much of the growth of the REITs has been organic as there has not been many buying opportunities in 2013. Labrooy, who is also Axis REIT Managers Bhd chief executive officer, said REITs that didn’t grow their portfolios would find it challenging to get much headway in distribution per unit (DPU) growth unless there were strong strategies for organic growth. On the whole, there is a shortage in supply of investment grade A assets in the market that are yield-accretive and allow for organic growth. Although the office sector is addressing the situation, he said the other sectors were still rather weak. The REIT market also has to contend with lower market liquidity compared to markets like Japan, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong. However this has been an advantage as the REIT stocks are tightly held by local institutional investors and hasn’t witnessed the sell-down by foreign funds witnessed in the Singapore and Hong Kong Markets REIT markets. Basically REITs can enhance their growth potential through acquisitions, organic growth, disposal of assets, repositioning of assets through enhancements, and capital management. Commenting on the cooling measures in the recent budget, Labrooy said overall the budget changes might prompt developers to relook at industrial developments as a diversification away from housing and this would benefit industrial REITs. With the implementation of the full RPGT from Jan 1, 2014, he said vendors who sold their assets to REITs were exempt to the tax and so might encourage more sellers to exit through sales to REITs. Meanwhile, the implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) from April 1, 2015 may dampen consumer spending, and will impact the overall retail sector’s performance. Labrooy said the introduction of the GST would benefit those developments that were completing by the end of 2014 which would escape the effects of the GST. Developers of industrial and commercial properties will not be affected but those who are involved in mixed development of commercial and residential will have problems in sorting the GST. REITs will have to charge GST on rent and service charges but if their tenants can charge GST for their goods and services the effect will be neutral. However, REIT acquisitions would be subject to GST and could have an impact on yields in the short term as prices would rise, he said. However the GST paid on the asset can be claimed back against GST on services provided to the buildings. Despite the headwinds ahead, Labrooy said on the whole, REITs were well managed with conservative gearing, and did offer investors a safe haven to invest in. “Our REITs have been very consistent in their performance given the strong management and high corporate governance their respective managers represent. “Income and valuations have been trending up putting strong total returns in the pockets of the investors,” he said. Labrooy said healthcare and industrial sectors continued to grow and presented opportunities for growth. |
|
|
Dec 11 2013, 09:52 AM
Return to original view | Post
#59
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Dec 11 2013, 09:38 AM) Many ppl don't realize that with every property slump comes many other problems. It doesn't just affect investments but also ppl's livelihood. That's why we should and must prevent property slumps because the recovery can stretch for years. Wrong ! the $$ would just moved to other investment eg stock market, Mutual fund, gold & etc.Developers can move to other industries just like current plastic mfg, undergarments mfg, college, software co. turn to property developers. If the is any damage maybe million of foreign worker & black money flow out of our country which could be blessing on disguise. Prior to the over speculated properties craze, I don't see problem with our economy, so why should there be any. Unless we follow PIGGS foot step making property speculation as the main mover of the entire economy then we will end up just like them in future. |
|
|
Dec 11 2013, 11:57 AM
Return to original view | Post
#60
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
Senior Member
3,274 posts Joined: May 2013 |
QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 11 2013, 11:09 AM) Anybody comments ? I wish that somebody can pls point out the flaws of my logic or model. Only then I can see whether I am on the right track or not. What we get in return ? who care if u r at wrong track, in fact it is good more people following wrong track, then only selected few can accumulates more wealth. .lolI like the Minolta in the Fennel, not only that he/she is tenacious, he can give some good points! QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Dec 11 2013, 11:27 AM) Which new development did not sell well in the past few years? Rarely have I heard of a new launch that didn't do well. Its not the initial launch sales which are gonna determine if a property development is gonna do well in future or otherwise. Why waste your time to discuss something where no one care to listen ? People only want "positive" news which BBB & continue BBB, price will forever UUU like 2009-2012, r u worried ur current holding might be drag down by their mistake (if it is a mistake) ? If this can happen to a development in a prime area, what can happen to non prime areas? Yes, property is a vicious cycle for those who aren't smart enough to read the warning signs. If ur theory proven to correct then u can accumulates a few more good buy in near future if not u can unload ur current holding with lucrative return, so just let the forum members here dive into what ever there like. |
|
Topic ClosedOptions
|
| Change to: | 0.0249sec
0.63
7 queries
GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 1st December 2025 - 08:04 PM |