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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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SUSjolokia
post Nov 22 2013, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Nov 22 2013, 02:12 PM)
As long as people have jobs, and the economy is in the positive growth region, don't expect prices to fall.
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Maxis recently announced 500 job cut from their 3300 workforce, Thailand report economy growth slow down to 2.7%, China having slowest economy growth of 7.5%, Indonesia economy expect slow down in 2014 BI up to 7.5%, Hong Kong economy slow down to 2.9%, South Korea economy slowest at 1.6% in 3 years, Japan economy Q3 economy merely growth 0.5%.

U should read beyond local feel good media..lol

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 22 2013, 02:44 PM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 22 2013, 03:18 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Nov 22 2013, 02:56 PM)
The problem with you guys is that you only assume that can only be two scenarios that can happen. One bubble burst, two bubble doesn't burst but the truth is what could happen and more likely to happen is stagnation or near zero growth until inflation catches up with the price. Even during the US recession a few years ago that was what happen.

I've said before, as long as interest rates are low, and economic growth is postive people will have very high holding power.
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1993 fresh graduate salary starting RM 1500-1800, twenty years later 2013 fresh graduate salary RM 2200 -2500.

20 years approx 33% increase 1.65%/year
By now if u can't understand why gov only take stringent move to curb property speculation beginning 2014, & think developer had no ideas on the policy before announcement, why less project compare to 2009-2012, why big developer never make noise on these new policy, then I donno what to says to u..zzz

Who says price never go down ? iproperty or propertyguru ..lol


SUSjolokia
post Nov 22 2013, 04:26 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 22 2013, 03:57 PM)
Nope. Read my earlier posts. I never said the bubble will burst. I have always said that there will be price slumps in some areas while other areas will experience stagnation.
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Spoon feed type, don't waste ur time, he need to wait till obasan tell him market price drop to accept the reality.

Can't even tell the difference between Bubble & Bubble Burst. ..I rest my case
..zzzzZzzz
SUSjolokia
post Nov 22 2013, 06:45 PM

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QUOTE(limch @ Nov 22 2013, 06:22 PM)
Be cautious to go into luxury property, > 1 mil.
Office space also is a surplus.
If you buy medium cost, chances are you will be alright because the demand for this segment is still strong.
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> 1mil condo maybe at risk of stagnatation, but landed no problem (depends location offcoz).
Then again the rich r more cautious then simpleton.
(That why i said the richer u r the more stingy opps i mean trifty u become laugh.gif )

Many genuine investor (with reasonable holding power) r abit worried on the current senario, as many half pass six flipper wannabe without foresight may just turn the possible slump ahead into a crash (burst), those who bought late still hope for the 2nd wave 2010-2012.

For me it's plain simple, the govt will not introduce market cooling policy if they didn't see problem ahead, surely this is after consulting local developer group that the heat is over, any further speculating would cause the entire industry to collapse, i bet that the senario even developer don't wish to see.

Again one should not look at properties industry as stand alone other industy may just cause "Butterfly Effect" on to each other, when people spend too much on property other industry r effected, when other industy effected it may cause damage to property market.

Then again people often blind by greed, who with a logic mind would throw their life saving on stuff like buying gold at future price, receive interest every month later sell the gold back at original price .. expect gold price forever up doh.gif




SUSjolokia
post Nov 23 2013, 10:17 AM

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QUOTE(esy @ Nov 23 2013, 09:47 AM)
... there seems to be lots of Malaysia millionaire from the way I am reading these posting here on property ... property that cost millions also finish sell and 500k people buying 2 to 3 units like buying maggi mee until no more available ... dun-ply-ply-eh ... laugh.gif ...
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Aiyah nowadays millionaires become sap sap sui already, own a landed property also make u millionaire already..lol

If the bubble continue we might become Zimbabwe where everyone is a Billionaire. .kakaka
SUSjolokia
post Nov 23 2013, 11:50 AM

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Since 2012 report a slow down in property market, i no longer able to see 2013 statistic, currently market r running in hearsay & rumours mode, 1 ,2 good sales will determine the entire market mode, i think 8 better go down to pasar & ask auntie/uncle either its a buy, sell or hold mode now..lol

If current policy adopted by govt is not clear indication the game is reaching its end then i donno what is, need me to highlight many friends & families of those in the corridor of power is also flipper if not direct or indirect owner of developer firm, surely they would play the same old tune let the market decide as that the part of capitalism like few years back, or take a lukewarm step like what they did in 2012, then again as i said in many occasions let the fire burn eventually fire sales will come..lol
SUSjolokia
post Nov 23 2013, 03:19 PM

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Many still think property as stand along business which will not affected by other sectors, what if u got retrench ? what if ur business get into trouble ? do the entire property investors/flipper work in developer co. or building materials supply or real estate agency ?

If your business need cash urgently to roll do u rather borrow ah long & still hold tight to the properties ? or rather entire family drink sky juice rather than dispose off ur properties ?

Sorry to use such "Pasar" language as many simply do not understand as their market knowledge heir from the pasar..lol

When house getting more & more expensive people spending larger & larger portion of their income into paying mortgage loan, so less money spend on travel, recreation, food, entertainment, education, insurance & etc, wouldn't this eventually killed off other business, thus reduced job opportunities ib these area, so when other sectors contribute less $$ how to finance property sector ?

Why do u think Spain got into what there r today ?

Someone mentioned to me in 2008 petrol prices will soon reach RM 10/ltr base on oil price increase at crazy level back then go, I tell the fellow impossible as no way a normal salesman can afford to pay like RM 2-3 k just to pump petrol, indeed the oil crisis was proven to be hoax & drop way below USD 50/barrel & still hovering below USD 100 till today.

Most if not all our developed neighbour country is expecting economy slow down next year, how well can we survive ?
SUSjolokia
post Nov 23 2013, 04:20 PM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Nov 23 2013, 03:50 PM)
Bro, the frequency of your posting seems that you are desperate to buy cheap properties  laugh.gif

Don't worry, your time will come. Many people have been waiting for the crash since 3-4 years ago. So, it won't be long  thumbup.gif
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Apologies for endangering ur little bet...lol

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 23 2013, 04:45 PM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 23 2013, 09:22 PM

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QUOTE(Martinis @ Nov 23 2013, 05:07 PM)


Malaysia has another 20 years property bull run.
Finally we have break the 10 years slump cycle...hooray
QUOTE(EddyLB @ Nov 23 2013, 05:13 PM)
Property prices have to fall by 90% to endanger my little bet  laugh.gif
90% ! Happy Retirement.

How could I not love lyf PT..lol


SUSjolokia
post Nov 24 2013, 08:55 PM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Nov 24 2013, 08:23 AM)
lyf = ?
PT = ?
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Don't they use short form back in the 50s & 60's ? Low Yat Forum Property Talk lah.

Generation gap ...lol

Thinking of educating the youngsters suddenly Grand Master appear. .rofl

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 24 2013, 08:57 PM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 25 2013, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 25 2013, 11:18 AM)
Unless the statistic is unreliable, fair to declare the bull run is over and we are at about the peak price (but not sure on which side)?
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Don't believe all these statistical news, look at facebook photo shared about The Fennel at Sentul, people line up overnight to grab million ringgit property & 80% sold within hours.

These articles writer .. what do they know, probably some poor journalist who live in rented flat.

Malaysia market have another 20 years bullrun minimum, Greater KL land as limit as Singapore & Hong Kong, our price still way below them, plenty of upward growth, half Malaysia population expect to live in Greater KL.

RPGT, DIBS, GST sure will keep the price transaction in UUU & BBB mode.

SUSjolokia
post Nov 26 2013, 02:19 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 26 2013, 01:36 PM)
What demand are u referring to? The only strong demand is for new launches because of the herd mentality and the easy ownership schemes out there. That's why I tell ppl not to use new launches take up rates as a yardstick for overall property bull runs. The secondary market has been slowing down from end 2012 already and yet many didn't notice.

Just look at YTL's Fennel. How many of those who queued to snap up units actually did proper research and knew the property market (including cycles) before buying? I dare to bet that it was only a handful.
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Buy first then think of sell, something on hand better than non, kiasu attitude.

Having says that the property only going to complete by 3-4 years time, if cannot fetched a lucrative price just hold loh ! Sure can earn just matter of time.

Half Malaysians moving into Greater KL so no worry no takers.

Cybermaster98 save ur breath lah ! just let them be if not later u can't get fire sales..lol
SUSjolokia
post Nov 27 2013, 05:08 PM

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Waiting for 1st Jan to see price up or down after RPGT, waiting for 17th Dec to see assessment up by how much, waiting to see how no more DIBS affect the new launching & secondary market

Everyone quietly waiting. .shh...most of all when Bubble Burst & Sapu cheap stock...lol
SUSjolokia
post Nov 28 2013, 03:19 PM

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QUOTE(Paris Wong @ Nov 28 2013, 03:03 PM)
PROPERTY PRICE = SALARY INCOME = DEMAND up/down & SUPPLY up/down

all rounded chain ,  majority is salary earner , majority win
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??? in English ?? ...lol

Since when property price at par with salary / income ??

Property price has been double, triple, quadruple even 5X 6X since 2009, i doubt anyone get these type of salary increments, not even for those who work in property developer co.

Properties price increase in line with black money flow..more likely..lol
SUSjolokia
post Nov 28 2013, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(Paris Wong @ Nov 28 2013, 03:30 PM)
Black Money?? means most house buyer is doing illegal job? I do not agree lol.... I mean affortablity to repay housing loan is the main issue for sustain property price.
Like that go Genting better maa , no need buy house lol shakehead.gif   doh.gif   shakehead.gif
If you study , before 2009 house prices still relatively affordable maa rclxms.gif
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Paris i have difficulties understand your François Anglais leh..lol

Go Genting sure loss, gamble property sure earn.

Actually there has been an downgrading trend on term of affordability, normal worker's can forget about buying a house in KV, even mid income group is struggling.

U be surprised how black turn white magically in property speculation, not convenient for me to discuss here..hmm

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 28 2013, 04:24 PM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 28 2013, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 28 2013, 04:01 PM)
Unlike stock or gold, property bubble tend to deflate over 2 to 5 years.
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5 years ? 2009 + 5 = 2014 (hehe..opportunity come)... tongue.gif
SUSjolokia
post Nov 28 2013, 09:31 PM

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QUOTE(Paris Wong @ Nov 28 2013, 05:18 PM)
A lot got rich  , not really from "black Money" laa, as what U assumed.
Do more analysis from meeting people rather than assume or read form book. wink.gif
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http://www.thedailystar.net/beta2/news/amn...in-a-small-sum/

Some tips of a iceberg for ur reading pleasure, at time I feel myself being a quite cheeky fellow, post half a statement let other show their ignorant, then slam the balance right on their face ..lol

U actually think market is supported by small little flies like u all who bought a few properties & show off in lyf pt..lol

U should really go out & meet the "real" world. .lol
SUSjolokia
post Nov 29 2013, 09:33 AM

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QUOTE(Paris Wong @ Nov 29 2013, 09:14 AM)
Never said I buy any house before , from your statement obviously you are a person that full of IMAGINATION & always ASSUME in everything ! Maybe U are too ego.
What "real" world? Again shown U all the while living in FANTASY world. rclxub.gif
Wake Up ,Wake Up friend! doh.gif
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Just as I thought "Never" bought any properties before, never worked in developer co. never know any people who in the dark side & also venture in property development, never know people who joined up with other to invest in property to laundry their black money.

Haha welcome to the real work..lol

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/11/20/i...E8AJ0GB20121120

See similarities. .

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 29 2013, 09:34 AM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 29 2013, 10:09 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 29 2013, 09:53 AM)
The unrealistic one will be the hardest hit. In this case it will be the new launches but not all. Only the ones which have been unrealistically priced will be hit. The others might sustain a hit or prolonged stagnation depending on severity of the slump.
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Subsales owner who bought their properties prior to the hike eg prior to 2010 will faced lower risk as current price might be double or triple of their early investment, they might just earn less, while those who bought studio / small unit at 0.5-0.75 million at non prime area good luck..lol

Another potential risk r shop lot buyer, some of the shop lot I seen complete 2-3 years ago hardly get 50% tenanted, yet more been build stone just throw away..sigh

SUSjolokia
post Nov 29 2013, 12:25 PM

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Magic word !!

"The rule of thumb is never buy at the peak or just before a slump (which is now)."

Those who bought it cheaper earlier have ample buffer to price slash, some properties actually appreciated (in paper) like 50% between 2011-2013 so selling way below current market price is not a problem.

Many condo r sustained through foreigners tenants, when economic going down trends these "tempo" tenants may just vanished, owner who highly depends on rental to cover their multiple properties have no choice but to let go with little profit or cost.

As for those who bought it at peak, either hold it for long..time or end up lelong...lol
..good luck.

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