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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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icemanfx
post Nov 20 2013, 11:56 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Nov 20 2013, 09:35 PM)
maybe UUU campers already got bored of listening to this?

to be honest... so far it's only UUU so the debate has been going long enough until there's nothing much to say...probably the UUU campers now enjoying their earnings and just smile and looking at this thread?
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Only if they have liquidated their investment else what they are spending is "future money". If they have liquidated property investment, by default they are no longer in UUU camp.

icemanfx
post Nov 21 2013, 12:05 AM

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QUOTE(661188 @ Nov 20 2013, 11:58 PM)
bz calculating $. brb after finish calculation.
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Until investment is liquidated become hard cash in bank account, it could be a liability.

icemanfx
post Nov 21 2013, 12:34 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 21 2013, 12:11 PM)
So long as u don't sell u don't loss.
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Provided one have cash flow to sustain it.
icemanfx
post Nov 21 2013, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(DrPitchard @ Nov 21 2013, 10:23 AM)
Whether its a liability or a pile of cash that I'm sitting on, I'm just glad that I jumped into the market 2 years back. Paper gain only, but a gain is still a gain, certainly better than a loss.
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Temptation to spend this "gain" prematurely could be hard to resist by most people especially those who have never seen this amount of money before.


icemanfx
post Nov 21 2013, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 21 2013, 02:44 PM)
I think ppl use the term 'burst bubble' too much. I think the property market in Malaysia is already in a bubble but this bubble is not going to burst. The Government wont allow it to happen. What we will get however is a property slump where you might see prices dropping about 10-15% in glut areas and stagnation in prime areas.

Im not worried about a slump as I have the holding power to withstand this (as long as the BLR doesn't go beyond 8.0%). My real concern is for those investing into property this year especially property which is clearly being priced well above the subsale market price of the area with little or no sustainable factors to support these prices in the future.

Property cycles and the event of slumps do not bring prices back to its original levels. It just eats into the profit margins of investors as long as these investors have a few years of 'buffer' in between cycles to absorb this effect. But new purchasers will not have this buffer leaving them exposed to a slump if they do not have the holding power.
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Neither U.S, Spanish or Greek gomen wish, want or cause property bubble burst in 2008. Property bubble burst in those countries was largely initiated by many buyers/borrowers couldn't sustain loan repayment.

If loan tenure is over 20 years, statistically, there is over 50% chance BLR will be above 8% at least once.

icemanfx
post Nov 21 2013, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 21 2013, 03:09 PM)
Nobody said Governments caused bursting of bubbles. But Governments have the power to prevent it from happening by limiting the amount of exposure to non performing loans.

The tenure of the loan is not a concern for investors or the Gov in limiting the risk of a property bubble as investors rarely hold properties that long anyway. That's why the RPGT was increased dramatically for the first 3 years.
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Whether the gomen have act early and enough to prevent exposure to potential npl is remained to be seen.




icemanfx
post Nov 21 2013, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(kohts @ Nov 21 2013, 03:04 PM)
Those which has not bought will have hard time getting loans and no dibs. Those which has bought is enjoying the facilities now. I fail to understand why those who has not bought is the winner. From before until now,  banks approve loan base on a person ability to pay base on income track record. It is not given out as wanton as some thinks. Bank more afraid loaners cannot pay, so i also fail to understand why those believe that with the implementation, suddenly a lot of people cannot pay n price collapse. Bank negara in setting the rates also have the data of loaners paying capability n will be fully aware of the npl risk if they increase the rate. New property price will be stagnant which will be the ceiling for subsales. Inf fact it may help flippers as there is no.different in buying subsale or new launches.
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BNM OPR is largely determine by macro and international scenario. When time come to crunch, BNM priority is to protect the gomen and banks, borrowers in financial ruin is acceptable collateral damage.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 21 2013, 03:46 PM
icemanfx
post Nov 21 2013, 04:19 PM

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According to a lawyer friend; currently, one group of foreigners are rushing to sell before new rpgt and another group of foreigners who are working here are rushing to buy before 1m minimum limit kick in. Guess, UUU camp can have the market to themselves in the new year.



icemanfx
post Nov 22 2013, 11:26 PM

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Current bull run of property market is fueled by cheap and easy credit of U.S. QE. When supply of cheap and easy credit ceased with U.S QE, credit available to new buyers will be more expensive and less i.e. volume of transaction will be reduced.

Many flippers are expecting a quick subsales after taken vp. If credit is not readily available to buyers, these flippers will have no choice but to hold. Given some flippers don't have the ability to hold, some will inevitably fail to keep up with loan repayment i.e. npl. If npl is on the rise, bnm and banks will curtail lending especially in that sector and making credit even harder to come by for buyers. Consequently, more flippers will become npl and the situation deteriorate further.

Given multiple number of property many flippers bought and number of loan given to people who were not qualify pre-2008, over 5% housing loan turn npl when it comes to crunch time is almost certain and understatement.

icemanfx
post Nov 23 2013, 06:47 PM

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QUOTE(Martinis @ Nov 23 2013, 05:07 PM)
If you think carefully how many units are actually launched in Klang valley over the past 2 or 3 years, you will realise that there is actually a serious shortage of condos/landeds to cater for expanding population.

Imagine you just started work few years back and are looking for a decent place to stay, your search is limited to the few condos around the vicinity of where you currently stay. Try it and you will realise there is shortage.

Price has gone up a lot. Yes. Thats in tandem with whats happening in Asian countries. But KL is still cheapest. There is shortage. Imagine a prime freehold in KLCC area only RM1,300psf or in singapore dollars only 500. is that a bubble? what price you want it to drop to? SGD300psf?

Malaysia has another 20 years property bull run. This is just the beginning lah.
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How many units you have invested?


icemanfx
post Nov 23 2013, 11:40 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Nov 23 2013, 10:51 PM)
Yeah try and buy property in bukit bintang then. What i am saying good areas will have prime price.
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1mdb is having a huge development at Jalan Imbi/Jalan Tun Razak, which should add stock to bukit bintang area.

According to ecosky thread; dibs is no longer available.
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2859532/+2380
It will be interesting to watch the development and implication to the market.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 23 2013, 11:57 PM
icemanfx
post Nov 24 2013, 12:00 AM

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QUOTE(MrHunter @ Nov 23 2013, 11:55 PM)
Property mkt ll slow down next 12 to 18 months. Transaction values ll go down.
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According to gomen statistics, number of transaction up to september 2013 is lower than same period last year but total value has gone up, means most properties transacted were high end.
icemanfx
post Nov 24 2013, 07:16 AM

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QUOTE(661188 @ Nov 24 2013, 02:25 AM)
car getting cheaper every year and more disposable income for us, bbb.
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To BBB, saving on car monthly installment is peanut if compare with profit made. Should be talking of changing new car every year.
icemanfx
post Nov 25 2013, 11:18 AM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Nov 25 2013, 01:05 AM)
In the first six months of the year, there was an overall 12.6 per cent decline in residential transactions in Malaysia over the previous year. While huge drops were seen in the top hubs of Kuala Lumpur (47.5 per cent), Selangor (16.2 per cent) and Penang (28.1 per cent), Johor registered a 4.9 per cent increase, data from the Ministry of Finance's Valuation & Property Services Department showed.

http://www.stproperty.sg/articles-property...market/a/142407
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Unless the statistic is unreliable, fair to declare the bull run is over and we are at about the peak price (but not sure on which side)?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 25 2013, 11:20 AM
icemanfx
post Nov 26 2013, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 26 2013, 09:50 AM)
Managed to find out. It was at The Residence condo at TTDI Plaza. This condo really no luck. This is not the first suicide / murder at this place. Also 70% empty. Capital appreciation and rental yields stagnant for a number of years already. Damn sien!
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This is at odd with demand over supply market, or strong property demand is a mirage? rclxub.gif

icemanfx
post Nov 27 2013, 05:18 PM

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After deducting dibs and discount, NSP (Net Selling Price) could be 20% lower than SPA price.

How many people view;
SPA is inflated price and NSP is real price
or SPA is real price and NSP is price drop?

Valuation should be taken at SPA or NSP? rclxub.gif

icemanfx
post Nov 28 2013, 02:31 PM

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Singapore’s home-price decline accelerated in October, falling 1.2 percent from the previous month, adding to evidence that the government’s efforts to cool the property market are working.

The city-state’s residential property index fell to 159.1 points last month after declining a revised 0.9 percent in September, according to the National University of Singapore’s Singapore Residential Price Index. The measure tracking prices in the central region decreased 1.4 percent in October.

Record home prices amid low interest rates raised concerns of a housing bubble and prompted the city-state to introduce new taxes and higher minimum down-payments since 2009 to curb speculation in Asia’s second-most expensive housing market. Home sales have been falling in the past four months after the government imposed new rules in June governing how financial institutions grant property loans to individuals.

“The latest statistics is a reflection of the current measures starting to bite the residential market,” said Alice Tan, head of consultancy and research at Knight Frank LLP, in Singapore. “Price quantum is still the key consideration for many prospective homebuyers.”

Home sales fell 19 percent in October to 1,009 units from a month ago, according to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority released Nov. 15. From the previous year, sales dropped 48 percent, the data showed.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-28/s...erty-curbs.html

icemanfx
post Nov 28 2013, 04:01 PM

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QUOTE(satrianeo-x @ Nov 28 2013, 03:55 PM)
I hope no bubble 'burst' but bubble lose some air... that's better Burst will cause accident and many collateral damage.
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Unlike stock or gold, property bubble tend to deflate over 2 to 5 years.


icemanfx
post Nov 28 2013, 11:44 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 28 2013, 09:31 PM)
U actually think market is supported by small little flies like u all who bought a few properties & show off in lyf pt..lol

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It is not unknown that some investors (and this number is not small) buy multiple units in one shot; they apply bank loan from a few banks at the same time and take up all loan offer at the same time, and hope to sell these dibs units the moment taken vp and profit $$$.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 28 2013, 11:54 PM
icemanfx
post Nov 29 2013, 01:05 PM

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QUOTE(Paris Wong @ Nov 29 2013, 11:18 AM)
doh.gif  Continue living in your "dark Side" and Use your "black money"
Follow all your assumption.  rclxub.gif
Congrat U!
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So called shadow, parallel or "dark" economy is about 20% to 40% of GDP, is not small money. These money played a major role in inflating property price in the last few years and many transactions carried out before 30% RPGT kicked in believed to involve these money.



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