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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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icemanfx
post Dec 13 2013, 12:38 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 13 2013, 11:19 AM)
Very true. It is the common problem with many rational people, me included. Listen to this and listen to that. Sometimes, both are reasonable. No matter what, decision has to be made to join which camp, to take the next action.
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Take comfort in numbers and most will pick uuu group, typical herd mentality.
icemanfx
post Dec 13 2013, 04:47 PM

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According to JPPH Q3/2013 statistics;

In KL, total numbers of condominium, apartments and service apartments is 165,574 units.
Incoming supply (i.e. under construction) is 46,098 units and planned supply is 14,613 units.

In Selangor, total numbers of condominium, apartments and service apartments is 227,535 units.
Incoming supply (i.e. under construction) is 53,527 units and planned supply is 32,932 units.

Can the market absorb about 36% of new stock (incoming supply and planned) in the next few years?


More staggering is;
In Johor, total numbers of condominium, apartments and service apartments is 32,454 units.
Incoming supply (i.e. under construction) is 30,789 units and planned supply is 24,263 units.



This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 13 2013, 05:08 PM
icemanfx
post Dec 13 2013, 06:55 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 13 2013, 05:57 PM)
No problem according to pemandu greater kl expect to increase its population from current 6 millions to 10 millions by 2020, with 8.4 millions citizens & 1.6 millions foreigners from current 540K, assume we will have arround 26 millions population in peninsular Malaysia 6 years from now (current 23.5 millions),  meaning about 1 in every 3 Peninsular Malaysians will be livings in greater kl.
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Are you expecting newly borned babies and children to buy?

icemanfx
post Dec 13 2013, 10:28 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 13 2013, 07:58 PM)
According to this article the only way to reduce house prices is to build more house, to achieve 2.5 person in every house from our current 6.2 person in every house, assuming urban area to have even smaller family like less than 2, yes u need to get 1 for your parents,  1 for u & your spouse,  assume you have 2 kids another house for them.
It is a question of affordability; no doubt for top 10% of earners, for next 70% earners may take a span of 10 to 20 years.

QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 13 2013, 07:58 PM)
To reduce house prices we need more house,  according to this particular developer write up.
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When the supply is over demand, price will drop naturally and demand will increase to reach a new equilibrium.

QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 13 2013, 07:58 PM)
According to REHDA the reason behind house prices escalating is due to huge demand & limited supply of land plus high demand of building materials,  meaning the higher the demand the higher the price.
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Current stock of 165,574 units took 20 to 30 years to accumulate. If there is truly limited supply of land, number under construction should be much lower than 46,098 (27%) units.
On paper, huge demand is undeniable, however a large portion of this demand is intended for subsell.

In the long term, surplus supply will be taken up if price drop sufficiently. The real McCoy is without price reduction, can subsell demand take up subsell supply in the next few years.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 13 2013, 10:29 PM
icemanfx
post Dec 13 2013, 10:35 PM

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QUOTE(Kevin Chan @ Dec 13 2013, 09:19 PM)
Came back from Taiwan last week ... wanna look at some Taiwan price ?

its written there 1.6million NT per Pheng for that condo ... which is NT160k psf.
Malaysia one expensive ?

located directly across the street from Taipei 101. 
I tell you if it drop 20% so what ...

These is really bubble price  notworthy.gif
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1 phêng (Chinese: 坪; pinyin: píng; Pe̍h-ōe-jī: phêng) = 3.306 square meters

NT 1.6m/pheng is NT483,968/m2 or NT44,811 psf.


icemanfx
post Dec 14 2013, 11:16 AM

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QUOTE(tangibee @ Dec 14 2013, 10:20 AM)
cheap prop soon in iskandar?
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Given number of units under construction, it is almost certain.

icemanfx
post Dec 14 2013, 10:21 PM

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QUOTE(Maneki-neko @ Dec 14 2013, 08:42 PM)
Gosh! my friend has just bought unit from Sunrise early this year. Now she has resigned from her job and hopping that can get good return from this property.....  rclxub.gif
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Guess she have invested many units.


icemanfx
post Dec 15 2013, 08:09 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 14 2013, 11:18 PM)
Whereas those investors who buy during good times, continue to buy during bad times. They manage to pick up many good deals. These investors usually have target price and will make the move when their target price is met.
Provided their investments are not below water, maintaining good ccris record and still can secure bank loan.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 15 2013, 08:17 AM
icemanfx
post Dec 15 2013, 08:16 AM

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QUOTE(zk9 @ Dec 15 2013, 06:35 AM)
u think when recession people who still waiting can easily buy ?. Interest rate will be hike up and impact a lot. unless bullet got millions
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In the U.S, Spain, Greece and U.K, foreclosure units could go below 60% of peak price. One don't need millions to pick up good properties. Those who didn't buy at peak unlikely to have bad CCris record hence bank loan won't be a problem.
icemanfx
post Dec 15 2013, 08:22 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 14 2013, 11:24 PM)
The general prices of property in malaysia over a long period (for eg. 10 years) has never came down. It is quite a linear upward graph. With the exception of a few individual projects
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Before gold peak, gold price was on upward trend for over 15 years.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 15 2013, 08:23 AM
icemanfx
post Dec 16 2013, 10:09 AM

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QUOTE(zk9 @ Dec 16 2013, 01:55 AM)
actually all the 2014 budget can be bypass. RPGT, BNM rules, LTV70%, DIBS. Developer can easy change to DISS tongue.gif.
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As if compliance is non existence at banks like grandpa shop.
icemanfx
post Dec 16 2013, 10:45 AM

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QUOTE(tangibee @ Dec 16 2013, 09:08 AM)
Still if talks abt cash buyers, not many able to make big value purchases without loan. Same thing, also filtered out from capability to purchase. No one like to cut lost, if does it is called ROI cut. Buyers still pay to seller some premium. Only weak flippers are going to find it hard to keep up with repayment. If no rental, smell the trouble coming soon during VP. Subsales are plenty in markets, can go buy "cheap" ones that is bigger size. If take new ones at affordable price, be ready to scarify size.
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Bank loan is always available to qualified buyers.

Real crunch will come after auctioned foreclosure price is registered and become a reference price for new loan to similar units. Buyers to subsell units need to fork out more cash for downpayment, means subsell need to hold longer, sending more subsell to auction, to lower price. This phase will only commence 2 to 3 years after npl and may last for 5 years or so.




icemanfx
post Dec 16 2013, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(tangibee @ Dec 16 2013, 11:16 AM)
Just to add, one if too fragile, pls dont buy anything if unable tolerate small fluctuation.
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To most if not all flippers, it is too late to get out.
icemanfx
post Dec 16 2013, 09:08 PM

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QUOTE(Llchieng @ Dec 16 2013, 08:59 PM)
Stock market to come down by 1st quarter of 2014, something big is coming liao, kakaka...
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So time to load gold?


icemanfx
post Dec 17 2013, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 17 2013, 08:41 AM)
Too much negative thought, here some positive.  rclxms.gif

http://www.creonline.com/real-estate-bubbl...of-hot-air.html

So BBB Gala continue.  rclxm9.gif
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Finally, some foreign writing is relevant to local market. rclxms.gif thumbup.gif

This article was probably written for the U.S property market before 2007 thumbup.gif rclxm9.gif rclxms.gif notworthy.gif


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 17 2013, 11:40 AM
icemanfx
post Dec 21 2013, 02:15 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 21 2013, 01:34 PM)
. I was suprise young people in their 20 to 30s owning 3 -4 units of condos to themselves and because they have to service these loans, they are harping that their units could be rented out so to cover their loan installments. If the said person were to lose his source of income, he/she would definately be unable to pay for this exisiting housing loans. rclxub.gif During those times, as long as you have a proper source of income, you could easily get 95% - 100% loan for those properties.

To be fair, everybody wants to make extra profits, but I would suggest that people buy within their means and not at the limit of their income. What if the market crashes, or you were to lose your job or something happen to you and being so you could not service your loans anymore?
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Hardly any gen Y experienced or know about recession, it is waste of time to tell them.
icemanfx
post Dec 21 2013, 07:23 PM

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QUOTE(yang1976 @ Dec 21 2013, 07:01 PM)
When one has nothing, they can say anything, since they have nothing to loose. Those strong earners should be able to surf thru the storms and deal with the challenges. If you been faking your earning to get loan, you will suffer soon or later if bubble bursts. Good luck!
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Most if not all flippers streched their borrowing to maximize profits.
icemanfx
post Dec 21 2013, 10:20 PM

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QUOTE(yang1976 @ Dec 21 2013, 09:20 PM)
For true buyers, with strong earning same as they reported in loan application are most likely to be ok . If interest goes up and not exceeding their monthly LO installment amount, they are still safe if they had chosen max tenure. Monthly installment is still same but serving more on interest than principal, this will increase your loan tenure automatically is no big deal, as price of prop will recover and up somemore as proven in history.  After VP, if tenanted then good, if no, can release back for sales at certain acceptable premium is not bad at all.  at any given time or more than 5 yrs. Future homes are smaller and more affordable in their own expenssive way to satisfy general mass market in sacrify of size. Those reported much much more (fake strech) than actual earning are gonna face their own downfalls. The key is you must have steady income and dont loose your job/biz.
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What you described is the idea situation but in reality, things are hardly idea. If the world is only half as idea, economic recession or crisis wouldn't had happen.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 21 2013, 10:25 PM
icemanfx
post Dec 21 2013, 11:34 PM

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QUOTE(yang1976 @ Dec 21 2013, 10:51 PM)
No perfect plan on life, it is a journey waiting to be discovered. Ideal situation comes from strategic planning, not perfect but practical enough to minimise risks if possible. If all things easy achieved, no gap between poverty and riches. Always measure self capability, walk the fine line is to take calculated risks  for breakthrough yet if overboard is trouble. Many external factors not mentioned here. Each individual is different, some have heavyweight background some just  starting up. We are not expert, each step taken must be carefully considered. A wrong step will take a person 3 to possibly 10 yrs financially behind.
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There are less than 10% of adults are worth over $1m for reasons.
icemanfx
post Dec 21 2013, 11:40 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Dec 21 2013, 10:41 PM)
Very confusing.  But I think US economy is recovering.  The Malaysia government knows its positive impact and announces the GST.  GST is usually announced in a robust economy, like when Singapore announced it.
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When Singapore introduced GST at 3%, the economy slowed.

When U.S went into recession in 2008, Malaysia was spared from economic slow down because U.S is no longer largest trading partner. Without FTA with the U.S, U.S recovery unlikely will have major positive impact locally.

U.S economy recovery mean interest rate will rise, fair guess is by 3% at least. A large portion of malaysian gomen bond buyers will sell and invest in more profitable return elsewhere and likely will cause tightening in liquidity, RM depreciation and rise in interest rate.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 22 2013, 12:29 AM

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