QUOTE(tikaram @ Aug 20 2013, 11:17 AM)
boss...
prediction is based on the assumption of no
major policy changes.
if that Dr predict during that time bubble. ( he also predict no major change of policy in givt, bnm ruling and etc)
if during the period. BNM. govt. changes some rules/policy. So he is entitle to do another prediction again the changes right?
Why not?
1. No one has the crystal ball, so no one knows the future
2. It is ok to predict with assumptions, if wrong, never mind, admit the mistake and predict again
3. Property mkt is very "localized", it is very hard to calculate the % of drop / rise of a particular area / project. In a single condo, if one is facing the golf course, another facing the highway, you may find that the demand and selling price may vary 10%-20%.
4. Every single moment has certain % properties rise and certain % properties drop, different sector, location, area and project has different curve. Unlike stock mkt, I dun believe 100% property price crash or 100% property price increase.
My take :- KV 20 Good 80 Bad, Iskandar 60 Good 40 Bad, Penang 50 Good 50 Bad
Shd stop buying highrise now, I think only < 10% of the condo (old / new) are good buy.