The share price dropping on M-REIT has been disappointing. Only de-compressed about 10% yield from 4% to 4.5% for major players, which is far from S-REIT's 20% or above de-compression rate to yield of 6+%.
The bad is by looking at historical performance on Bursa listed defensive stocks such as Nestle or Telcos, their yield are also highly compressed. The reason for this probably has something to do with heavy local fund involvement in local market as these huge capital funds are looking to invest in stocks that could provide high cash flow (via dividend), so that they can pay the dividends without much hesitation. There is nowhere else to invest besides these high yield stocks.
In addition to that, some M-REITs are on the growth path, such as Axreit and some retails REITs. For DPU growth of 8-10% pa, the yield de-compression becomes "auto-mode" riding with time factor only. That said, they don't mind just hold it and wait for the fruit. They are not aggressive on return, as there is no competition. We have only one EPF funds, for instance.
As for bond yield rise, FF may leave, but local funds should still stays as they have nowhere to go.
As for interest rate hike on debt payment concern, even if it happens, it won't be aggressive. It's hard to believe rate could rise as much as the REIT's growth rate, say 8% pa for the next 5 years. Besides, many M-REITs has gearing ratio of below 35%, some even below 20%. Besides, some have almost 100% loan with fix rate such as Pavreit and IGBreit.
For all the above, I think it's unlikely to see much deeper correction on M-REIT. However, the sector may overhang for months or so before people getting more comfortable on the fear of QE exit effect.
Just some thoughts.
This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 2 2013, 06:47 PM