QUOTE(Babablacksheep @ Jun 26 2013, 10:47 AM)
stocks down, gold should up.maybe buy gold then.
STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V133, Bear coming?
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Jun 26 2013, 10:51 AM
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#1
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
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Jun 26 2013, 10:52 AM
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#2
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
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Jun 26 2013, 11:09 AM
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#3
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
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Jun 26 2013, 01:13 PM
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#4
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
Momentum indicators are starting to turn from weak bullish to weak bearish.
Market top has been established at 1788. The possibility of downside is higher than upside. Chances of falling towards 200-day MVA at 1670 is high. http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-ne...g-stronger.html |
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Jun 26 2013, 01:39 PM
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#5
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12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 26 2013, 01:23 PM) For me, always look at fundamental and valuation when having doubts and concerns. Time the market is very very very very difficult. This I listen from many many many many sifus advice. This post has been edited by yok70: Jun 26 2013, 01:44 PM |
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Jun 26 2013, 01:40 PM
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#6
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12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
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Jun 26 2013, 01:43 PM
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#7
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
wah! my stelux on steroid today! so lucky yesterday i topped up my holdings with sweat catching that falling sharp knife.
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Jun 26 2013, 02:02 PM
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#8
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 26 2013, 01:48 PM) I only consider stocks with solid fundamentals. I tried to time the market (again) pre-GE and sold many of my strong fundamental stocks. Guess what, I missed 30-50% stock price upside by this mistake.Valuation wise most still got decent upward space. The thing is, I wanna avoid going into the market when the short-mid term outlook is dim. Me no rike when mah share stuck at -5% loss after entry. Even REITs are no longer a safe hedge against equity volatility. 2 months until the big drop, according to fengshui chart. REIT now suffer weak sentiment because of fear of rate hike. If interest rate or bond yield up 1%, possibly means REIT's yield need to up 1% in order to attract buyers. This even before consideration of the cost of debt a REIT need to pay will increase too. Consider current yield of 5%, a 1% up to 6%, which means REIT's share price must down 20%. This post has been edited by yok70: Jun 26 2013, 02:04 PM |
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Jun 26 2013, 02:22 PM
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#9
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 26 2013, 02:09 PM) Ya kinda true also. the key point is to catch fishes based on valuation pov more than market sentiment.But many fundamentalists still able to catch fishes at super low prices... Perhaps they forget to tell u they do keep lot of cash and waiting for more opportunities. Their reasons for u not to time the markets ........... when price down and fundamental stays, valuation is getting cheaper and cheaper, that's why fundamentalists start buying in more. |
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Jun 26 2013, 02:26 PM
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#10
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12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
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Jun 26 2013, 02:34 PM
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#11
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12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 26 2013, 02:30 PM) But when they forsee a banking crisis or asset bubble to burst , then they still need to time the market. when they foresee a banking crisis or asset bubble to burst, that's under fundamental changes. WB also time the market to go into US property sectors .........He did not just jump in the moment property crashes at rock bottom values. In fact, he buys because he expects US property trend to be reversed soon. ........... if you called that time the market, well at that level, they are the same thing with 2 faces then. like my mistake made pre-GE, that's a time the market without much fundamental concern. This post has been edited by yok70: Jun 26 2013, 02:36 PM |
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Jun 26 2013, 03:08 PM
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#12
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12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
some stocks the support level is just so obvious. i guess it's local funds instead of retailers.
and they just support, not moving up further. so it stays at "cautiously neutral" stage i guess. |
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Jun 26 2013, 03:13 PM
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#13
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 26 2013, 03:01 PM) Malaysia 10 years is about always at around 3.5~4%. Since the previous QE 1 and 2 did make gold up and raise inflation, many thought QE 3 will do the same. Surprisingly, it didn't. Until now, I still can't figure out why. Probably because when QE 3 happens, central banks across the world are much stronger with enough US$ to neutralize the effect? Actually it is not RM drop, but USD has tremendous strength. RM vs AUD, is actually appreciating. Those said USD is worthless, and short USD, bear USD, now being hit left and right, due to massive QE previously. As many USD bear, either short USD, holding others currency or go into gold market. The extreme USD bear, short USD, long gold, is the worst scenario for time being. Left being whacked, right being slapped. |
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Jun 26 2013, 03:14 PM
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#14
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
HKSE rebounds 400 pts (2%) while SSE continues dropping another 0.5%.
So China now has "departed" ? I thought China companies start asking money from HK banks? This post has been edited by yok70: Jun 26 2013, 03:15 PM |
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Jun 26 2013, 04:12 PM
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#15
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12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 26 2013, 04:07 PM) Ok lah let the fongsui chart topic rest. I hold tight tight for 2 years already. Sell now? Party has just began. I shall necro it when August comes. Completed analyzing Coastal, me like the balance sheet. Anyone want to sell to me at RM1.99? |
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Jun 26 2013, 04:13 PM
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#16
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
Haiya! Why REIT starts moving up? Reach yield 6% only move mah!
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Jun 26 2013, 05:04 PM
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#17
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12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
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Jun 26 2013, 08:32 PM
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#18
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12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
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Jun 26 2013, 11:48 PM
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#19
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12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 26 2013, 11:23 PM) Endless objections. I never take it seriously in the 1st place. Just find it interesting on how the creator thought of the flow. The beauty of human minds. Smart ones will take advantage of these. My POV would be that the nature of the business is more risky and no constant income stream. So no oomph on the share price. Funds rich cz need more funds for emergency. But that could change with their entry into rig business as its considered recurring income? Didn't study the sector in depth, just some common sense blabbering. Prepared to kena condemn again |
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Jun 27 2013, 04:31 PM
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#20
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur |
Added more giordano today with eyes closed.
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