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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V133, Bear coming?

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yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 10:51 AM

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QUOTE(Babablacksheep @ Jun 26 2013, 10:47 AM)
Gold Drop, Stocks should up.
I sense another rally bull soon.
*
stocks down, gold should up.
maybe buy gold then. tongue.gif
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jun 26 2013, 10:46 AM)
Too much cash also problem.... doh.gif
*
sifu gark, may i know which counter in Singapore represent Charles & Keith? notworthy.gif
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 11:09 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jun 26 2013, 11:05 AM)
Looks like i am wrong.. not listed sorry.. still a private company ah.. notworthy.gif

Old already memory not so good...  sweat.gif
*
no problem. thumbup.gif
thanks for your time. notworthy.gif
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 01:13 PM

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Momentum indicators are starting to turn from weak bullish to weak bearish.
Market top has been established at 1788. The possibility of downside is higher than upside.
Chances of falling towards 200-day MVA at 1670 is high.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-ne...g-stronger.html

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yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 01:39 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 26 2013, 01:23 PM)
Still considering whether to hold on to the rest of my 47% or go 100% cash.  hmm.gif
*
For me, always look at fundamental and valuation when having doubts and concerns. icon_rolleyes.gif
Time the market is very very very very difficult. This I listen from many many many many sifus advice. notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jun 26 2013, 01:44 PM
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 01:40 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jun 26 2013, 01:24 PM)
Seems like no one has read apollo's latest financials, or they think that it's not good enuf hmm.gif
*
sometimes, this means priced in already. laugh.gif
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 01:43 PM

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wah! my stelux on steroid today! so lucky yesterday i topped up my holdings with sweat catching that falling sharp knife. sweat.gif rclxms.gif
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 02:02 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 26 2013, 01:48 PM)
I only consider stocks with solid fundamentals.
Valuation wise most still got decent upward space.

The thing is, I wanna avoid going into the market when the short-mid term outlook is dim.
Me no rike when mah share stuck at -5% loss after entry.  tongue.gif

Even REITs are no longer a safe hedge against equity volatility.  rclxub.gif
2 months until the big drop, according to fengshui chart.  laugh.gif
*
I tried to time the market (again) pre-GE and sold many of my strong fundamental stocks. Guess what, I missed 30-50% stock price upside by this mistake.

REIT now suffer weak sentiment because of fear of rate hike. If interest rate or bond yield up 1%, possibly means REIT's yield need to up 1% in order to attract buyers. This even before consideration of the cost of debt a REIT need to pay will increase too. Consider current yield of 5%, a 1% up to 6%, which means REIT's share price must down 20%. nod.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jun 26 2013, 02:04 PM
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 02:22 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 26 2013, 02:09 PM)
Ya kinda true also.

But many fundamentalists still able to catch fishes at super low prices...

Perhaps they forget to tell u they do keep lot of cash and waiting for more opportunities.

Their reasons for u not to time the markets ........... hmm.gif
*
the key point is to catch fishes based on valuation pov more than market sentiment.
when price down and fundamental stays, valuation is getting cheaper and cheaper, that's why fundamentalists start buying in more. hmm.gif

yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 02:26 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jun 26 2013, 02:25 PM)
How if fundamentalist get wrong anf the stock change in fundamental, but it just he couldn't see it  laugh.gif
Valuation also change that time  biggrin.gif
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yes. nod.gif
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 02:34 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 26 2013, 02:30 PM)
But when they forsee a banking crisis or asset bubble to burst , then they still need to time the market.

WB also time the market to go into US property sectors .........He did not just  jump in the moment property crashes at  rock bottom values.

In fact, he buys because he expects US property  trend to be reversed soon. ...........
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when they foresee a banking crisis or asset bubble to burst, that's under fundamental changes.
if you called that time the market, well at that level, they are the same thing with 2 faces then.
like my mistake made pre-GE, that's a time the market without much fundamental concern.


This post has been edited by yok70: Jun 26 2013, 02:36 PM
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 03:08 PM

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some stocks the support level is just so obvious. i guess it's local funds instead of retailers.
and they just support, not moving up further. so it stays at "cautiously neutral" stage i guess. hmm.gif
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 26 2013, 03:01 PM)
Malaysia 10 years is about always at around 3.5~4%.

Actually it is not RM drop, but USD has tremendous strength.
RM vs AUD, is actually appreciating.

Those said USD is worthless, and short USD, bear USD, now being hit left and right, due to massive QE previously.
As many USD bear, either short USD, holding others currency or go into gold market.

The extreme USD bear, short USD, long gold, is the worst scenario for time being.
Left being whacked, right being slapped.
*
Since the previous QE 1 and 2 did make gold up and raise inflation, many thought QE 3 will do the same. Surprisingly, it didn't. Until now, I still can't figure out why. Probably because when QE 3 happens, central banks across the world are much stronger with enough US$ to neutralize the effect? hmm.gif
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 03:14 PM

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HKSE rebounds 400 pts (2%) while SSE continues dropping another 0.5%.
So China now has "departed" ? I thought China companies start asking money from HK banks? tongue.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jun 26 2013, 03:15 PM
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 26 2013, 04:07 PM)
Ok lah let the fongsui chart topic rest. laugh.gif
I shall necro it when August comes. brows.gif

Completed analyzing Coastal, me like the balance sheet. brows.gif The retained earnings alone can cover 2 years+ of FY12 total liabilities.

Anyone want to sell to me at RM1.99? tongue.gif
*
I hold tight tight for 2 years already. Sell now? Party has just began. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 04:13 PM

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Haiya! Why REIT starts moving up? Reach yield 6% only move mah! doh.gif
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 05:04 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Jun 26 2013, 05:02 PM)
I worry she drop from sky then you become ham chin peng, like the guy who was killed in Pg freak accident.
*
LOL! rclxms.gif
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 08:32 PM

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For Brewers Lovers. cool.gif




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yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 11:48 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 26 2013, 11:23 PM)
Endless objections.  sweat.gif

I never take it seriously in the 1st place. tongue.gif
Just find it interesting on how the creator thought of the flow.  blink.gif 

The beauty of human minds. 
Smart ones will take advantage of these. 

My POV would be that the nature of the business is more risky and no constant income stream.  hmm.gif
So no oomph on the share price.

Funds rich cz need more funds for emergency.

But that could change with their entry into rig business as its considered recurring income?
Didn't study the sector in depth, just some common sense blabbering.  thumbup.gif

Prepared to kena condemn again  cry.gif
*
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yok70
post Jun 27 2013, 04:31 PM

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Added more giordano today with eyes closed. cool2.gif

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