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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V129, All time high!

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SKY 1809
post Apr 10 2013, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 10 2013, 11:03 AM)
I see the FCF from TDM is more or less breakeven as they are investing in the new planting. But it is a net cash company, so no need to worry got no money.  laugh.gif
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But the Chinese saying " U look busy working, but do not earn a penny"

aka For what purpose ?

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Apr 10 2013, 11:09 AM
StupidGuyPlayComp
post Apr 10 2013, 11:09 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 10 2013, 11:06 AM)
But the Chinese saying " U look busy working, but do not earn a penny"

aka For what purpose ?
*
nowday, work smart better than work hard
SKY 1809
post Apr 10 2013, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Apr 10 2013, 11:09 AM)
nowday, work smart better than work hard
*
Just pay some attention to Panamy now may be worth the time laugh.gif
StupidGuyPlayComp
post Apr 10 2013, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 10 2013, 11:11 AM)
Just pay some attention to Panamy now may be worth the time  laugh.gif
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biggrin.gif slow performance.............not attractive for many ppl
jasontoh
post Apr 10 2013, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Apr 10 2013, 11:09 AM)
nowday, work smart better than work hard
*
It is always work smart better than work hard. I seldom see people working over the clock are having better life than those who go work and leave work on time. biggrin.gif And they are not necessary the one getting promotion as well tongue.gif
skiddtrader
post Apr 10 2013, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 10 2013, 10:48 AM)
For TDM you need to look beyond the CPO price.

They have 40K land in Kalimantan, of which 12k ha has been planted since 2008. This year they will plant another 6k ha. Their initial 6-8k ha has come to fruitation since mid 2012, hence will start to contribute from 2013 onwards. Even at stagnant CPO prices, they will have increased CPO production of +20% in 2013 from the contribution of their kalimantan plantation. Thier first palm oil mill in Kalimantan is scheduled to be operational in mid 2013. Current terrenganu plantation is not efficient as it has been badly abused by the previous owners, hence CPO yield is low at below 20 tpha with oer of 19%. Plantation in Kalimantan is much more fertile volcanic soil, which can potentially yield 23-25 tpha with oer >23%.

There are 2 new hospitals going to be up which will raise the the number of beds by 50% operational end of 2013. Their healthcare division has been growing at a very good CAGR of 17% since 2004. So far at current share prices, all thier land will only cost RM 25k/ha with free hospitals and palm oil mills thrown in, one of the cheapest in the industry. wink.gif
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Thanks for the info. I only have data until 2011 where they have 6575 hectares of young trees (0-3 years) in their Indonesian Operations.

While their hospitals operation growth is very good, it is still so small compared to their plantation business in terms of revenue and profit.

Oh yeah, also just noticed that the 22 sens dividend for 2012 is much higher in terms of div/eps. While historically, TDM always pay close to 30%, this time 22 sens of 41 sens 2012 EPS is closer to 50%.

This post has been edited by skiddtrader: Apr 10 2013, 11:23 AM
SKY 1809
post Apr 10 2013, 11:23 AM

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QUOTE(skiddtrader @ Apr 10 2013, 11:20 AM)
Thanks for the info. I only have data until 2011 where they have 6575 hectares of young trees (0-3 years) in their Indonesian Operations.

While their hospitals operation growth is very good, it is still so small compared to their plantation business in terms of revenue and profit.
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Hospitals can be very big ones , u can walk until u lost the directions.

But the FCF can be very thinly.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Apr 10 2013, 11:23 AM
cwhong
post Apr 10 2013, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 10 2013, 11:03 AM)
I see the FCF from TDM is more or less breakeven as they are investing in the new planting. But it is a net cash company, so no need to worry got no money.  laugh.gif
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A gark sifu! Need some opinion on plantation company..... Golden agri listen in singapore exchange.... Since the price is low i am thinking to buy and keep can ahh?
gark
post Apr 10 2013, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(skiddtrader @ Apr 10 2013, 11:20 AM)
Thanks for the info. I only have data until 2011 where they have 6575 hectares of young trees (0-3 years) in their Indonesian Operations.

While their hospitals operation growth is very good, it is still so small compared to their plantation business in terms of revenue and profit.

Oh yeah, also just noticed that the 22 sens dividend for 2012 is much higher in terms of div/eps. While historically, TDM always pay close to 30%, this time 22 sens of 41 sens 2012 EPS is closer to 50%.
*
Yeah those 6575 ha of young trees in 2013 will be 2-5 years old... 3/4 years onwards can already harvest... rclxms.gif

Their hospital PBT already contribute >10% of total profits... not so small anymore, in 2014 will contribute at least 15%-20%. In terms of revenue already about 30%, hospital margin is lower than palm oil, currently about 10+%. I have checked the margin with KPJ and it is almost similar, hence TDM's hospital is standing on par with the big brother KPJ... and KPJ selling at PE 20... icon_question.gif

Historically TDM announced dividend 35%-45%, this year is the biggest, probably due to large cash reserves on hand (Or Terengganu govt need election funds doh.gif ). They however guarantee minimum 30% payout no matter what. Good dividend stock if you ask me....

This post has been edited by gark: Apr 10 2013, 11:38 AM
gark
post Apr 10 2013, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(cwhong @ Apr 10 2013, 11:31 AM)
A gark sifu! Need some opinion on plantation company..... Golden agri listen in singapore exchange.... Since the price is low i am thinking to buy and keep can ahh?
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I also looking at golden agri.... but i find first resources better... laugh.gif Both are big plantation owners in Indonesia...
SKY 1809
post Apr 10 2013, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 10 2013, 11:34 AM)
Yeah those 6575 ha of young trees in 2013 will be 2-5 years old... 3/4 years onwards can already harvest... rclxms.gif

Their hospital PBT already contribute >10% of total profits... not so small anymore, in 2014 will contribute at least 15%-20%. In terms of revenue already about 30%, hospital margin is lower than palm oil, currently about 10+%. I have checked the margin with KPJ and it is almost similar, hence TDM's hospital is standing on par with the big brother KPJ... and KPJ selling at PE 20... icon_question.gif

Historically TDM announced dividend 35%-45%, this year is the biggest, probably due to large cash reserves on hand (Or Terengganu govt need election funds doh.gif ). They however guarantee minimum 30% payout no matter what. Good dividend stock if you ask me....
*
Thanks.

I want to standby a bit of money to buy some after post bonus.
Smurfs
post Apr 10 2013, 11:42 AM

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polling date for GE 5th may 2013?

http://www.nst.com.my/latest/polling-day-h...ksEnabled=false
CP88
post Apr 10 2013, 11:49 AM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Apr 10 2013, 11:09 AM)
nowday, work smart better than work hard
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+support 100% thumbup.gif thumbup.gif
CP88
post Apr 10 2013, 11:52 AM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Apr 10 2013, 11:15 AM)
It is always work smart better than work hard. I seldom see people working over the clock are having better life than those who go work and leave work on time. biggrin.gif And they are not necessary the one getting promotion as well tongue.gif
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That's why we are lurking here. tongue.gif
jasontoh
post Apr 10 2013, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 10 2013, 11:34 AM)
Yeah those 6575 ha of young trees in 2013 will be 2-5 years old... 3/4 years onwards can already harvest... rclxms.gif

Their hospital PBT already contribute >10% of total profits... not so small anymore, in 2014 will contribute at least 15%-20%. In terms of revenue already about 30%, hospital margin is lower than palm oil, currently about 10+%. I have checked the margin with KPJ and it is almost similar, hence TDM's hospital is standing on par with the big brother KPJ... and KPJ selling at PE 20... icon_question.gif

Historically TDM announced dividend 35%-45%, this year is the biggest, probably due to large cash reserves on hand (Or Terengganu govt need election funds doh.gif ). They however guarantee minimum 30% payout no matter what. Good dividend stock if you ask me....
*
The problem when I sell it also because of the div policy. Was looking at 40c whole year EPS which will guarantee me of 10c dividend only, with shrinking profit about 33% expected, I worry the EPS drop to about <30c. That is when I decided to sell it. Imagine about <3% yield based on the price I sold. Anyway, since the good news is out for the TDM holders, I wish you guys all the best. For me, I shall relook into this counter, once the election is over + after all the corporate exercise. If nothing special, might still give it a go.
SKY 1809
post Apr 10 2013, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(CP88 @ Apr 10 2013, 11:52 AM)
That's why we are lurking here.  tongue.gif
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This is not the forum to promote no need to work hard. hmm.gif

Bosses would soon ban this forum if everyone does not want to work laugh.gif


SKY 1809
post Apr 10 2013, 11:58 AM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Apr 10 2013, 11:55 AM)
The problem when I sell it also because of the div policy. Was looking at 40c whole year EPS which will guarantee me of 10c dividend only, with shrinking profit about 33% expected, I worry the EPS drop to about <30c. That is when I decided to sell it. Imagine about <3% yield based on the price I sold. Anyway, since the good news is out for the TDM holders, I wish you guys all the best. For me, I shall relook into this counter, once the election is over + after all the corporate exercise. If nothing special, might still give it a go.
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The co wants to buy back 10% shares in the market.

I am not in favour of this because TDM FCF shows breakeven, no extra money coming for quite a while.




jasontoh
post Apr 10 2013, 11:59 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 10 2013, 11:58 AM)
The co wants to buy back 10% shares in the market.

I am not in favour of this because TDM FCF shows breakeven, no extra money coming for quite a while.
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Thanks for the information. Then it proves that my decision to sell it was not that bad after all.
SKY 1809
post Apr 10 2013, 12:01 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Apr 10 2013, 11:59 AM)
Thanks for the information. Then it proves that my decision to sell it was not that bad after all.
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U see 10% could be 100M hard cash at current price.

Sounds like a political propaganda than real to me.
jasontoh
post Apr 10 2013, 12:02 PM

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QUOTE(CP88 @ Apr 10 2013, 11:52 AM)
That's why we are lurking here.  tongue.gif
*
I'm trying to get some tip c actually biggrin.gif. But overall market seems to be quite bullish

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