Hi guys,

I know there are many similar threads on this since the last few years but the survey done previously can be considered outdated. Many who were skeptics had already changed their point of view, so you may put your vote on this latest survey.

Thanks!

I think the most likely one is actually going down near term for few months and going up mid to longer term.

Near term election risk. Mid to longer term, both parties are aiming to increase income per capita. Doesn't matter if its real or nominal income, either way its beneficial.



This post has been edited by Lcsx: Mar 18 2013, 11:29 AM

Last revision of BLR rate is holding too long, new rate will out soon and will be higher to cater government over spending on welfare

friends who working inside maybank and ocbc ,

telling me banker is worrying about 2015 & 2016 , because the most project will be done on the period , and housing could be oversupply , meanwhile house price could be drop when the time

No worry, interest rate still remains low and GST is coming which mean some inflation may take place after GST implementation.

wow, it's very interesting to see a mixed sentiment on the survey...

Buy now, later u no place to stay

I guess it will kind of consolidate overall, with some high end markets dipping down a bit or stagnate. While low to medium will still see moderate growth. The trend will go on for the next 2-3 years until year 2015-2016 where many projects will come to fruition. And that will be a real challenging time for property market in Malaysia.

Your statement makes sense to me, but I believe the price will continue to rise before 2015.

Buy now, later u no have place to stay

depends on area. KL and Ipoh not same approach.

Yeah , it will rise , but quite slow , until 2015 .
So that they also recommend me , try to purchase those housing project which will complete at 2017

rent from me la

For those buying for own stay buy now otherwise forever homeless. Buy with ur comfortable finacial capabilities u can upgrade later. Take note things arent going cheaper.

new launch (all types) - up
subsale non high end - moderate or stagnant
completed high end - down

That's very closed to what I have in mind. But of course, there will be exceptions.

Agree with you especially DIBS kind of houses/apartment.
Time to save bullet for that time?

i had stopped my purchashing for investment purpose,,

whatever i will b buying in future will b for self use,,

i dun hav crystal ball thus, b more on the cautious side

My banker friend told me also, especially CBJ!

taiko...

let said you live in maluri kepong.

most unit price 620k

suddenly got one fire sale at the same row Rm 460k only and you confident that u can sell it immediately at 600k

will you buy it or not if u can afford it.

me. I will

This post has been edited by tikaram: Mar 18 2013, 03:10 PM

The results of this vote may be inconclusive because there are many property agents in LYN together who will vote for UP UP UP despite knowing full well that prices have already started stagnating in some areas.

strongly agree as most of them have multiple accounts. So information in lowyat always need extra salt...cili..suger...viniger...

This post has been edited by tikaram: Mar 18 2013, 03:13 PM

Haha I don't normally participate in online polls. And I also don't quite bother with the polling results.

This post has been edited by puchongite: Mar 18 2013, 03:14 PM

I also will buy.

BUT

What if got 3 units at one go fire sale RM460K at the same time, and your area not fully tenanted? Will you buy? That time needs more thinking.

By the way, I voted for price correction. But my real prediction, short term (12-18mths): Some areas stagnant, some areas minor correction, some areas major correction.

Luxury high rise is headed for major correction unless you own some choice units in TTDI or Bangsar. MK or KLCC could be hit less hard as well. Other locations, good luck.

Penang and Johor should be up. KL maybe. Others I'm not too sure.

Hot areas won't go down...KL, PJ ...nah. (RM300-500k).....But luxury units will always be the first to be hit whenever a down turn occurs. (Unless of course, in major prime area). But the probability a stagnant will occur , but definitely won't be dropping.

Properties in non-hot areas, these will be the ones, that will be see significant drop.

Anyway, we can all talk...nobody knows for sure what will happen.

when ppl like u n me have no better way to invest due to the share market being fully controlled by giant GLC n government investment fund . the property price will keep going up even though it is slow some of the time , because this is the only way for us to protect our monetary value .

+1

daikor... from investment point of view, sounds like a good bargain that cant resist...

but on personal level, I am running out of bullet leaving 1 shot for own stay .. if i stay in Maluri Kepong and got this bargain, why not buy for own stay

hard to predict o, have to see GE

Banker worry since 1997 crisis, they always worry, somehow one day they will be right

+1

Yeah if you worry 20, 30 years. And none of your worries happen then maybe something wrong. Haha.

This post has been edited by Lcsx: Mar 18 2013, 04:49 PM

I was a banker before, how a banker perceive thing is different from normal people, like accountant, their mindset is very much influenced by their job nature, their day in & day out dealing with insolvency, reprocess, auction, defaults in payments, blacklisted and bankruptcy cases, you will tend to hv pessimistic thinking.
I was in-charge of hire purchase and housing loan matters back 17 yrs ago (local bank), almost every month we will hv auction and reprocess cases (car / property), the auction list is full of unwanted property, keep repeating every mth, this will influence our (banker) logic thinking.

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Mar 18 2013, 05:02 PM

UFO-ET,

Lucky you were not the loan approval officer...

Ya luckily...if not our property mkt already burst and collapse in 2005

But those people are the first pp have the hard data to tell wen bank will increase rate.

Bank base on hard data and evaluate the risk, those data are taken from the ground, banker..

This post has been edited by Nikmon: Mar 18 2013, 05:29 PM

Agreed! adding points

new launch (all types) - up = esp new township phase 1 BBB....latest phase may be on B
subsale non high end - moderate or stagnant = good location nearby LRT/to-be LRT MRT is UP...example Kota Damansara..
completed high end - down = sure down down little bit... huh

I vote up up another 50% then crash

True, I didn't say they are wrong. But in reality, sometimes in property sector, 1 + 1 =/ 2.
This country is full of "dark" money, you will be surprise some people has so much money, all fr funny channels.
A lot of people under declare theirs' income, even they buy a lot of properties, income tax officer never check, my customer (businessman) never declare income tax since 1997 but can buy car and property, a lot of hanky-panky dealings at the back of the door. A young man age 38 declare 120K income can hv 10 mil property in hand.

If you study the total number of houses vs total populations (KV or developed countries like HK, Singapore and Taiwan), it is obviously oversupply already, so far there is no specific % (surplus) to say the mkt is over supply that will lead to bubble burst, if the whole KV has a total of 100 households (4 family members), then
1) How many houses do we need to supply?
2) How many % oversupply will lead to bubble burst?

I dun think anyone has the answer. That is the difficult part.

because of inflation alone i would say there won't be a dip or market correction

Actually tis MRT is another reason for price to up up.. Got new highway also up up up, ape2 pun UP UP UP mode ny.. Wonder wat the owners are smoking...

How long more wil the party continue.. I am waiting to see some of the high end areas to complete... Such as Temasya Glenmaire and Laman Glenmarie 2... Because recently I got quoted for a under con unit, so very curious to noe if it can live up to the price tag upon completion especially Phase 2A, can it hit 950K -1.5 mill mark.. for a place in shah alam, can it command such a high price tag? Similar to Kinara...

This post has been edited by all blacks: Mar 18 2013, 07:52 PM

mrt up, mall up, highway up, school up.
next... pasar malam up, rempits up...!


just u wait... first, subsale will come under tremendous pressure soon. may not be fire sale but u shud find some decent buys.

then, the developers will rethink their pricing, greed, etc...

Salary 3k, down
Election, down
PR1MA, down
Puchong flooded, down
Sulu attack Sabah, down
Don't not accept really, down....

Peri peri gor,
When will the latest BLR rate gonna released?

Indeeds.

:-0

Too bad that u are not, otherwise i could stay in semi d or bangalow by paying alot lesser .... 90% discount?!

If the market down,
No more new launches.

All are just clearing stocks.

And one thing I am very sure. New launch
Price will not drop.

Coz prima house also marketing themselves lower than market value by 20%

Hopefully they will be provided good materials and not so called cut cost. Then the contractors will definitely cut more things for them.

No new launch during market down, those property company fly kite lo..haha

Lol. Do you see them flying kite often?

Most big developer already increase their invesment towards oversea market , do you think msia property down will give them a big blow down? Only end up owner will suffer th most.

Some of the agents told me got Chinese School nearby so hse price can appreciate... I was like

I'm more realistic... not hoping for crash juz a minor correction should get tings back on track for landed so I would agree with u... For Condo's, my the force be with them..

This post has been edited by all blacks: Mar 18 2013, 11:35 PM

One more thing that will happen in 2015 is the compulsary of build then sell concept..
IMHO it will caused a knee jerk in the prop industry..

Small players will be struggling with this terms and even big players might scale down their launches since they are absorbing all the risk themselves and also to improve cashflow.. thus potentially lower supply of properties after BTS is implemented..

Buy link house free Semi-D

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Mar 18 2013, 11:36 PM

Artificial BTS, marginal effect I think.

That's true. Houses near to schools are always in good demands.

Especially Chinese schools.

To be honest.. I never knew tat... Because almost every1 had a selling point, new highway, new mall, new school, MRT so I wa really like

Lol. Accessibiity is very important.

Road is money. At least in malaysia.

chill

Not just the smaller ones bungkus. There will be oversupplied fast if they launch completed project like 6 months apart. This is happening in one of the projects. Really take some time to absorb home owners

But toll also money

We build tol to collect money in malaysia. Not like USA for military and defense purpose.

Come on brother. All things in the world do not come free. NGO needs money to run well too.

by and large quite true for bigger diversified cos. but think not for the smaller ones that need to launch to stay alive.
i can think of dutamas where prices psf more or less peaked in 1997 but after the crisis of 98, changkat view and others were launched at lower psf.
there must be a no. of other cases in other areas too.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 19 2013, 12:55 AM

i say that's true for "own stay" demand, i.e. minus the speculators.
but given so many new tamans with no shops, no schools, people just buy, prices also went up like all the rest.
to me, it suggests that the buying frenzy esp landed has been pretty blind, with or w/o those essentials, to the delight of developers!

now, the real test will be when the market softens and subsale buyers have a wide choice.
then, i suppose those with good amenities will be of top choice, prices can hold better.
those still with nothing or next to nothing by then, prices won't hold as well.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 19 2013, 01:05 AM

Interesting, I like this ''property'' section in LYN. can see alot predictions and knowledge sharing by among..

For me, price goes up or down, we still need a place for stay
(Gated and guarded is a benefit for me, you know la.. not safe here in Malaysia. robbers everywhere, bla bla bla)

You know all these predictions are the same as fortune telling. Only people who are uncertain and lack of confidence they like to go to fortune tellers. Opps sorry, I don't mean it's you !

wow, 70% vote for positive property outlook!

This shows that majority think property price only heading one direction. up Up Up.

Maybe we should start a poll:

How many % of the working hours of property agents are spent on participating online property polls ?

I dont see how it can be negative. However, I believe the up will not be as before. It will be a bit slow but still up.

Whether it will continue to shoot up for the next 3-5 years predicated on a number of things:
1) ability to reverse brain drain and attract talents to our shores. These guys are needed to move us up the value chain.
2) implement investor friendly policies to attract FDI
3) revamp our education policies towards emphasis on innovation, creativity and language skills to enable our folks to be globally competitive.
1 to 3 will help break the Middle Income Trap.
Today, majority of our middle income earners cannot afford properties > rm 400k. Most of our new launches in KV are > 800k or are pigeon holes. So unless our younger folks income levels move up fast or we are able to attract a heck lot of foreigners to buy our props, be ready for a correction.

Oversupply worries I believe could be subdivided into few points:

1.Pricing - for e.g KLCC area has been known to have an oversupply of luxury condominiums but if a developer would launch a condo in this area for 500psf ,do u think people would bother if there is an oversupply?

2.Mature and developed estate - for example, Bangsar houses are always in demand.Why?Coz there is just no more land surrounding that area to be developed.Close proximity to international schools, universities , and CBD , will create more demand then supply. This is also true for TTDI.

3.It depends on the health of the economy as a whole- the health of our economy is currently supported by lots of FDI. More people have better paying jobs and thus the increase of middle class income earners.This group will continue to invest on properties as part of their wealth preservation and wealth accumulation.

In short, for those who listen blindly to what his/her banker frens would tell them "eh becarefull there is an oversupply" ,you might continue to be priced out of the market.One wise men once adviced me, "a foot in the property market is always better then NO FOOT at all".

I think most property agent will vote

"It will go down soon with a price correction"

I vote this

The market will only crash wen pp are too optimistic.. if majority expecting it will crash, than it will not happen.

+1
malaysia need a change of our policy maker .

First and foremost, why need to worry the future if one get the present things done right?

From a very simple investor and owner micro point of view:

DO:
1) Buy prop for investment or own stay within your capacity.
2) Have some cash in hand for some buffer if anything hits (e.g. no job, no tenant, bank installment etc.)

DONT:
1) Dont flip if one cannot hold the property such as whacking all the DIBS now and hope to sell for a profit before or during VP.


*The above circumstances does not apply to those with lotsa of money to spare.

This post has been edited by edyek: Mar 20 2013, 08:58 AM

One of the best advise I ever see. This what I call the real investor.

Great! You are also visiting fortune tellers thread.

yeah~
tsk tsk tsk ..

Sure. This is just talk colk song song thingie. But I've never voted anything in lowyat forum before, in the property section I mean.

This post has been edited by puchongite: Mar 20 2013, 01:12 PM

I like the sentence below that seem familiar to you:-

....and you are also one of them...

This post has been edited by firee818: Mar 20 2013, 01:30 PM

even if property price crash but nobody selling or u got no money to buy also 5 3 5 4

Price won't crash if nobody selling cheap or buying cheape, it is just stagnant.

Price will crash if everybody selling cheap and buy cheaper, this is PoP.

Apparently landed freehold DSTH in okay location (my observation BU, Puchong, Kepong & Setia Alam) price still up now. I guess after GE date is announced price will be softer and after GE if nothing major happens, price will be up up up again...

will definitely buy for stay

The result quite similar to V7

If the result is realiable , with the similiarity with v7. still have high chances of bubble happened within 3 years la.

despite: ltv70%, high debt, RPGT increase, rent yield droping, potential interest go up, affordability issues & supply over demand.

This post has been edited by tikaram: Mar 22 2013, 11:29 AM

This country is expanding too fast. Price corrections in certain areas now

yes agree.

high end unit saw some price corrections on sub sale already.

For houses, are Setia Alam, Alam Impian, Puchong, Subang Jaya, Cheras correcting themselves in prices? I can see some selling a bit lower in KLCC, Mont Kiara, Rawang.

The bolded area above, I don't think so... I have been keeping track of the landed ones and the price still up up up... But there are a lot of units and sub sale is extremely slow... You can add in a few more actually, Bandar Kinara, Denai alam, quite a number in Sg. Long, Kota Kemuning Utama, USJ Heights, Caya SPK too... Some high end and some average..

There are few Glenmarie projects completing this year, so let c how the sub sales market gone hold up... From what I can c, landed already oversupplied in some areas...

This post has been edited by all blacks: Mar 22 2013, 12:14 PM

Unlike stock mkt, the cycle can be one. But in my research, I found at least 20 cycles in KV, every sector, zone, townships, Malls, condo, Taman are having theirs' own cycle, if we go in details to study, we could not find a syncronised pattern among all those items mentioned above.
I always want to describe property mkt as a horse racing, every horse had different stamina, running style and pattern vary to each other, just choose the right one at the right time.

P/s : In history, I hv never encountered property mkt is 100% up or 100% down, not in the future too, it won't happen.

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Mar 22 2013, 12:16 PM

up & up in JB

While I vote for "It will stagnant and may get back up after a few years". This only applicable for general market.

The key is to buy the right time & product...

Bubble? Where got bubble. Otherwise, you wont still buying like no tomorrow.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

tikaram


May 15 2013, 11:12 AM

Group: Senior Member
Posts: 2,413

Joined: Nov 2011









look like kepong sentral is a good buy now

anyone invested here? how is the price now? i bought one subsale last week and planning to buy one this week due to good bank valuation and price still very low with very good yield.

This post has been edited by tikaram: May 15 2013, 02:31 PM
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2082102/+20


Dont worry, no bubble. You are only a bit nervous with your investment.