Banker worry since 1997 crisis, they always worry, somehow one day they will be right

I was a banker before, how a banker perceive thing is different from normal people, like accountant, their mindset is very much influenced by their job nature, their day in & day out dealing with insolvency, reprocess, auction, defaults in payments, blacklisted and bankruptcy cases, you will tend to hv pessimistic thinking.
I was in-charge of hire purchase and housing loan matters back 17 yrs ago (local bank), almost every month we will hv auction and reprocess cases (car / property), the auction list is full of unwanted property, keep repeating every mth, this will influence our (banker) logic thinking.

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Mar 18 2013, 05:02 PM

Ya luckily...if not our property mkt already burst and collapse in 2005

True, I didn't say they are wrong. But in reality, sometimes in property sector, 1 + 1 =/ 2.
This country is full of "dark" money, you will be surprise some people has so much money, all fr funny channels.
A lot of people under declare theirs' income, even they buy a lot of properties, income tax officer never check, my customer (businessman) never declare income tax since 1997 but can buy car and property, a lot of hanky-panky dealings at the back of the door. A young man age 38 declare 120K income can hv 10 mil property in hand.

If you study the total number of houses vs total populations (KV or developed countries like HK, Singapore and Taiwan), it is obviously oversupply already, so far there is no specific % (surplus) to say the mkt is over supply that will lead to bubble burst, if the whole KV has a total of 100 households (4 family members), then
1) How many houses do we need to supply?
2) How many % oversupply will lead to bubble burst?

I dun think anyone has the answer. That is the difficult part.

Buy link house free Semi-D

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Mar 18 2013, 11:36 PM

Artificial BTS, marginal effect I think.

I think most property agent will vote

"It will go down soon with a price correction"

I vote this

This country is expanding too fast. Price corrections in certain areas now

Unlike stock mkt, the cycle can be one. But in my research, I found at least 20 cycles in KV, every sector, zone, townships, Malls, condo, Taman are having theirs' own cycle, if we go in details to study, we could not find a syncronised pattern among all those items mentioned above.
I always want to describe property mkt as a horse racing, every horse had different stamina, running style and pattern vary to each other, just choose the right one at the right time.

P/s : In history, I hv never encountered property mkt is 100% up or 100% down, not in the future too, it won't happen.

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Mar 22 2013, 12:16 PM

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