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 V10 - Property Prices (Up, Down or .....), and the debate goes on and on and on ...

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wlinvest2
post May 15 2013, 09:28 PM

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QUOTE(teohkpin @ May 15 2013, 06:10 PM)
KLSE all time high, ringgit all time strong, MGS yield all time low, property prices all time high, everything is hunky-dory now.........everybody making gains.

Sustainable?

i think future outlook is weak.....government will have to increase debt or revenue(tax) to support their ever growing spending plus whatever they spend 30% gone ????. Commodities bull is over, will only move sideway and will not help increase government's revenue (Oil and CPO). To rely on domestic consumption soley, our population not huge enough. To rely on corpoarte earnings, how many corporates are expanding overseas bringing huge revenue and profit back? Once ETP contrcution over, what else to boost?
raising debt or tax.....our future is bleak, middle income "promoted" to poor, either by inflation or less income.

Office space - malaysia breaching 100mil sft supercede Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia when overall FDI dropped. Who's the future tenant?landlord?
and more to come Iskandar......

whatever supporting the market now is Liquidity, once malaysia debt breach the safety level and foriegn funds pull out, we will see the impact, Ringgit weakened, KLCI plunge, Bond yiled increases.

Property prices - Down, stagnant or Up? your guess

suddenly putting $$ in US seems to be a better bet.....smile.gif

just my thoughts...
*
Let's look at the facts:-

1. US, Japan, China, are all printing money.
The money they print per year is in trillions.resulting Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore and all Asian countries also increase money supply to balance the exchange.

2. With all the money coming to Asia from the west , banks are flood with money. Especially Hong Kong, Singapore.

3. We all know that EU, US, Japan 's growth and unemployment will not be able solve within this year. It is estimated to take 2 to 3 more years to see improvement.
As such, continuing of printing money will persist.

4. If true, Malaysia's property and shares will continue to rise but at a more moderate rate as printing of money slows down when market in the west improves.

5. The money will leave Asia back to US or EU only the economy has very clear sign of bull market which we are not seeing now.

6. With so much liquidity in asia market now, do you really think the property/share market will go down?

I think we still have a few good years. That is my humble opinion.

Steven83
post May 15 2013, 09:54 PM

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QUOTE(worgen @ May 15 2013, 08:09 AM)
take it with a spoon of salt if you dont like it. same with any data, its a reference. judge yourself. trying to analyse too many data makes you pening. end of the day, we interested to know if you make or lose $$$.
*
Same here, in the end I do want to see make or lose $$$.
teohkpin
post May 15 2013, 09:55 PM

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QUOTE(wlinvest2 @ May 15 2013, 09:28 PM)
Let's look at the facts:-

1. US, Japan, China, are all printing money.
The money they print per year is in trillions.resulting Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore and all Asian countries also increase money supply to balance the exchange.

2. With all the money coming to Asia from the west , banks are flood with money. Especially Hong Kong, Singapore.

3. We all know that EU, US, Japan 's growth and unemployment will not be able solve within this year. It is estimated to take 2 to 3 more years to see improvement.
As such, continuing of printing money will persist.

4. If true, Malaysia's property and shares will continue to rise but at a more moderate rate as printing of money slows down when market in the west improves.

5. The money will leave Asia back to US or EU only the economy has very clear sign of bull market which we are not seeing now.

6. With so much liquidity in asia market now, do you really think the property/share market will go down?

I think we still have a few good years. That is my humble opinion.
*
True and I hope that is the case but our economy cannot be supported by liquidity from foreign funds. Is not sustainable. US having sign of improvement, our peers valuation is cheaper, no one can really tell when the liquidity is leaving malaysia.
Steven83
post May 15 2013, 09:56 PM

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QUOTE(wlinvest2 @ May 15 2013, 09:28 PM)
Let's look at the facts:-

1. US, Japan, China, are all printing money.
The money they print per year is in trillions.resulting Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore and all Asian countries also increase money supply to balance the exchange.

2. With all the money coming to Asia from the west , banks are flood with money. Especially Hong Kong, Singapore.

3. We all know that EU, US, Japan 's growth and unemployment will not be able solve within this year. It is estimated to take 2 to 3 more years to see improvement.
As such, continuing of printing money will persist.

4. If true, Malaysia's property and shares will continue to rise but at a more moderate rate as printing of money slows down when market in the west improves.

5. The money will leave Asia back to US or EU only the economy has very clear sign of bull market which we are not seeing now.

6. With so much liquidity in asia market now, do you really think the property/share market will go down?

I think we still have a few good years. That is my humble opinion.
*
+1, that's the data I want to see. This is why HongKong, Singapore etc was trying to put pressure on property loan.
Steven83
post May 15 2013, 09:57 PM

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QUOTE(teohkpin @ May 15 2013, 09:55 PM)
True and I hope that is the case but our economy cannot be supported by liquidity from foreign funds. Is not sustainable. US having sign of improvement, our peers valuation is cheaper, no one can really tell when the liquidity is leaving malaysia.
*
Once it leave, the housing bubble will finally pop. Which all of us don't want it to happen because in the end, everyone going to suffer just like Spain.
teohkpin
post May 15 2013, 10:09 PM

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QUOTE(Steven83 @ May 15 2013, 09:57 PM)
Once it leave, the housing bubble will finally pop. Which all of us don't want it to happen because in the end, everyone going to suffer just like  Spain.
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And I hope to cautious new buyer who plan to buy new project to flip. Risk cld be high by time of delivery, anything could happen 2 years later.
SUSworgen
post May 15 2013, 10:24 PM

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QUOTE(Steven83 @ May 15 2013, 09:56 PM)
+1, that's the data I want to see. This is why HongKong, Singapore etc was trying to put pressure on property loan.
*
US stocks broke new high.their housing recovery just at the beginning. US recovery still long way to go.

this not only a data but a judgement by wlinvest2:
+1 With so much liquidity in asia market now, do you really think the property/share market will go down?



teohkpin
post May 15 2013, 10:26 PM

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QUOTE(teohkpin @ May 15 2013, 10:09 PM)
And I hope to cautious new buyer who plan to buy new project to flip. Risk cld be high by time of delivery, anything could happen 2 years later.
*
No confidence with Nj administration, spending like nobody business. Better put my children's education fund in SG or US.

This post has been edited by teohkpin: May 15 2013, 10:27 PM
Steven83
post May 15 2013, 10:28 PM

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QUOTE(worgen @ May 15 2013, 10:24 PM)
US stocks broke new high.their housing recovery just at the beginning. US recovery still long way to go.

this not only a data but a judgement by wlinvest2:
+1 With so much liquidity in asia market now, do you really think the property/share market will go down?
*
Don't forget they are just parking the money here to keep the value. It can leave anytime they want, if happens I won't be surprise to see BNM rise the interest rate on all loan. Mark my word, now the -blr rate drop from maximum 2.4 to 2.3.

This post has been edited by Steven83: May 15 2013, 10:32 PM
teohkpin
post May 15 2013, 10:33 PM

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QUOTE(worgen @ May 15 2013, 10:24 PM)
US stocks broke new high.their housing recovery just at the beginning. US recovery still long way to go.

this not only a data but a judgement by wlinvest2:
+1 With so much liquidity in asia market now, do you really think the property/share market will go down?
*
Agreed with wilinvest2, short term market will be doing good. 2 to 3 years down the road nobody knows. Hope our government knows what they are doing and time to tighten their belt. Buying properties is not 6 mths to 1 year game. U need to hold couple of years to see good returns. Personally I think the risk is too high. That's the reason I can never be rich......hahaa.....too risk adverse.
Steven83
post May 15 2013, 10:34 PM

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QUOTE(teohkpin @ May 15 2013, 10:33 PM)
Agreed with wilinvest2, short term market will be doing good. 2 to 3 years down the road nobody knows. Hope our government knows what they are doing and time to tighten their belt. Buying properties is not 6 mths to 1 year game. U need to hold couple of years to see good returns. Personally I think the risk is too high. That's the reason I can never be rich......hahaa.....too risk adverse.
*
nope...its just you are late to the market. Not a good time as the ROI was bad and everyone hope for property appreciation .... not healthy.

This post has been edited by Steven83: May 15 2013, 10:35 PM
teohkpin
post May 15 2013, 10:41 PM

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QUOTE(Steven83 @ May 15 2013, 10:28 PM)
Don't forget they are just parking the money here to keep the value. It can leave anytime they want, if happens I won't be surprise to see BNM rise the interest rate on all loan. Mark my word, now the -blr rate drop from maximum 2.4 to 2.3.
*
As an investor I will invest when I see sign of recovery and not wait for full recovery when everything has been price in. Also I will move from over priced country to lower priced market. Just my thoughts. So q is malaysia really that attractive? Our GDP superb? Our corporate earnings double digit growth? I am quite pessimistic
teohkpin
post May 15 2013, 10:44 PM

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QUOTE(Steven83 @ May 15 2013, 10:34 PM)
nope...its just you are late to the market. Not a good time as the ROI was bad and everyone hope for property appreciation .... not  healthy.
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Steve I am already in property market since 2009. Looking at things i think we shld start to be more defensive rather than aggressive.
Steven83
post May 15 2013, 10:44 PM

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QUOTE(teohkpin @ May 15 2013, 10:41 PM)
As an investor I will invest when I see sign of recovery and not wait for full recovery when everything has been price in. Also I will move from over priced country to lower priced market. Just my thoughts. So q is malaysia really that attractive? Our GDP superb? Our corporate earnings double digit growth? I am quite pessimistic
*
Nope...Malaysia is a small pie for fry, our salary grow is like turtle now. Without fundamental on export and heavily depends on construction sector. We are going the wrong way.
Steven83
post May 15 2013, 10:47 PM

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QUOTE(teohkpin @ May 15 2013, 10:44 PM)
Steve I am already in property market since 2009. Looking at things i think we shld start to be more defensive rather than aggressive.
*
Same here, I been there since 2007. that time was really good return, but now unsure.gif ... 1% rental and hoping for appreciation while the salary can't grow much?
teohkpin
post May 15 2013, 10:49 PM

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QUOTE(Steven83 @ May 15 2013, 10:44 PM)
Nope...Malaysia is a small pie for fry, our salary grow is like turtle now. Without fundamental  on export and heavily depends on construction sector. We are going the wrong way.
*
That's the reason why I q how long the foreign liquidity will stay.

Steven83
post May 15 2013, 10:50 PM

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QUOTE(teohkpin @ May 15 2013, 10:49 PM)
That's the reason why I q how long the foreign liquidity will stay.
*
Looks see how thing goes in another 2 years, a lot of property are on the way to be ready in 2004,2005. Notice some property are having hard time to sell off, and showing small significance of decrease 1k-5k. I will monitor for another 2 months.

This post has been edited by Steven83: May 15 2013, 10:52 PM
SUSworgen
post May 15 2013, 11:03 PM

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QUOTE(teohkpin @ May 15 2013, 10:26 PM)
No confidence with Nj administration, spending like nobody business. Better put my children's education fund in SG or US.
*
this guy overpromised with stars and moon. if i m not wrong, he need rm216b to fullfill his promise in 5years. it amazed me too hindraf traitor can be appointed as a deputy minister. omg!
teohkpin
post May 15 2013, 11:04 PM

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QUOTE(Steven83 @ May 15 2013, 10:50 PM)
Looks see how thing goes in another 2 years, a lot of property are on the way to be ready in 2004,2005. Notice some property are having hard time to sell off, and showing small significance of decrease 1k-5k. I will monitor for another 2 months.
*
Zuiko taikor always very optimistic becoz he already has his war chest build. He entered early so cost is low and rental yield high. I guess his new purchase if any is financed by previous profits so he can go all way out. For us small time investor need to be very careful. Hard earn money lehhhh........smile.gif
Steven83
post May 15 2013, 11:06 PM

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QUOTE(worgen @ May 15 2013, 11:03 PM)
this guy overpromised with stars and moon. if i m not wrong, he need rm216b to fullfill his promise in 5years. it amazed me too hindraf traitor can be appointed as a deputy minister. omg!
*
That guy will bring Malaysia to doom.

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