China fund lovers:
China's New Strategic RoadmapKEY POINTS:
1. The official growth target for 2013 has been maintained at 7.5% and slower long-term growth rates should be expected
2. Controlling inflation and property market risks has become a larger priority for the central bank and the government has called for “prudent monetary policy”
3. Emphasis has now been placed on implementing “proactive fiscal policy”, which will have positive longer-term benefits for the nation and counter less assistance coming from the central bank
4. With improvements in external conditions, support from fiscal policy and attractive valuations, our outlook on the Chinese equity markets remain positive
IS THIS BAD NEWS FOR CHINESE EQUITIES?Chinese equities have not reacted too well to the latest developments in China, as investors become concerned over the possibility of tightening monetary policies and further property market curbs. We agree that inflation and property market risks have taken a more prominent spotlight in China’s near-term outlook, but other positive factors are still supportive of the market’s long term outlook. First, external conditions have continued to improve, boosting China’s exports growth in the first two months of 2013. Continued recovery also means that loosening monetary policy would not be necessary, even if inflationary risks were less of a concern. Secondly, long-term economic prospects are promising, especially with the active role the government continues to play in rebalancing the core economic drivers.
Finally, valuations remain at large discounts compared with historical and fair levels, with the Hang Seng Mainland 100 index’s 2013 estimated PE at 9.5X (as of 15 March 2013), below its fair value of 13X. A-shares market valuations are also attractive, as the China Securities Index 300’s 2013 estimated PE at 10.5X, below its fair value of 14X (as of 15 March 2013). Thus, we continue to maintain a positive outlook on the Chinese equity markets.
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