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 EPF DIVIDEND, EPF

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prophetjul
post Jun 3 2017, 09:05 AM

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QUOTE(Adri Wing @ Jun 3 2017, 02:23 AM)
I only used EPF money to buy UT when it was announced ..... redeemed in 6 months times when everyone going in. Asked all my clients to redeemed also. Profit over 200K .... I am 56 yo now. still keeping money in EPF .... withdraw dividend only.  rclxms.gif

Didn't invest after that. One time only. rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif
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wow!
you brought out a Jan 2014 post? laugh.gif

Are you a UT agent?
prophetjul
post Jan 24 2018, 08:37 AM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Jan 23 2018, 10:12 PM)
Korang Malaysia nih, banyak bertuah... rezeki pun manyak.

Tahun baru bos / syarikat kasi bonus.

Kerajaan KWSP pun bagi bonus dividen.

My prediction is 6.75%.

Last year was 6.25% and it was a lousy year. This year KWSP has been harping on how much their investment made etc etc... so it should be 6.75% lah!

Xuzen
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ummmmm

last year was 5.7% on a lousy year biggrin.gif

5, 5.5, 6, 6.5, 7, 7.5

what does it matter?

what can you do?

zilch, nothing, nether........ laugh.gif
prophetjul
post Jan 24 2018, 09:32 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 24 2018, 09:29 AM)
Can. Continue lesser biggrin.gif
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Lesser? confused.gif
prophetjul
post Jan 24 2018, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Jan 24 2018, 10:15 AM)
Kasi syiok sendiri only lor!

Last year my KWSP-MIS port ROI is double digit thanks to foreign exposure but long term CAGR is close to 9% p.a. [ five year old port ].

Kasi syiok sendiri my KWSP - MIS port is bettter than KWSP lor.

Xuzen
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thumbsup.gif
prophetjul
post Jan 24 2018, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 24 2018, 10:53 AM)
Say you use to contribute RM60k/year, cut it down to RM40k and take the RM20k, put it somewhere where
1) you know can get >6%
2) acceptable risk.
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UTs?
prophetjul
post Jan 24 2018, 11:54 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 24 2018, 11:31 AM)
UTs or stocks lo.
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I do not TRUST unit trusts. biggrin.gif

Can invest in stocks?
prophetjul
post Jan 24 2018, 11:56 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Jan 24 2018, 11:52 AM)
This year high side (maybe 6.8%)
Next year below 6% 😈

Reason they say.. Because portfolio performance is bad 😕 MYR weaker.. Forex losses...
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OR they need to retain profits to buy out the Battersea Power development phase 2. None for us. sweat.gif
prophetjul
post Jan 24 2018, 12:03 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Jan 24 2018, 12:01 PM)
Yeah.. Retained profits...
But I think cannot be high percentage too..
Donno where I read. EPF must give out at least 95% of the profits to contributors... Something like that...
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Sure of this?
prophetjul
post Jan 24 2018, 02:34 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 24 2018, 02:15 PM)
Put at it this way. Are your stocks able to beat unit trust performance?  If no,  better to put into UT. Of course,  best to put into UT which can beat the ETF consistency.  Got such  funds? Got.
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Didn't know you can invest EPF funds in stocks directly.

There are hundreds of UTs. Only a handful can beat gold's performance. Why bother?
prophetjul
post Jan 24 2018, 02:55 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Jan 24 2018, 02:53 PM)
I made a quick comparison to check / verify your statement.

Gold ETF [ using SPDR Gold ETF as proxy ] made a annualized return of 3.32% p.a. over the last three years.

While I checked Mutual Fund and definitely more than a handful beat Gold performance in the same period. The top performer is 25% p.a. [ United Japan Fund ] for the past three years. Whereas there are 450 Mutual Funds that return above 3.32% p.a. over the past three year on.

450 Mutual Funds is definitely more than a handful.

Xuzen

p/s I use FSM SG's data.
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Why not try last 15 years?
prophetjul
post Jan 24 2018, 02:58 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Jan 24 2018, 02:57 PM)
If I do, will you later say... try 30 years? 60 years? 100 years?
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So why 3 years?
prophetjul
post Jan 24 2018, 03:03 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Jan 24 2018, 02:57 PM)
If I do, will you later say... try 30 years? 60 years? 100 years?
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I used 15 years as I bought gold in 2002 and just held. No manager. NO TRUST.

CAGR is around 11% pa


prophetjul
post Jan 24 2018, 03:03 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 24 2018, 03:02 PM)
You can't. What I meant is self contribution of RM60k. You have control over this factor. You can choose how much to contribute a year.  If you have no confidence of EPF/think you can beat the EPF returns then just reduce the amount of self contribute. And take the balance and invest it yourself.

Apa pulak gold? doh.gif doh.gif No one's talking about gold performance.  Gold is high risk and high gain as volatility is high.
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Employee contribution is fixed. Cannot reduce.
prophetjul
post Jan 24 2018, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Jan 24 2018, 03:07 PM)
3 years = 252 x 3 = 756 observation points.

NB: 252 trading days per year.

Google Central Limit Theorem. In lay person speak,  It states that given a large data set, the mean becomes stable and very close to the population mean.

In lagi layman's / kopitiam apek talk : CLT states that if you have 3 years / 5 years / 10 years, your mean is not going to chance significant.

Xuzen
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Seems like the CLT has limits on minimum data, not maximum. Who's looking at MEAN? We are looking at total returns over a time period.
prophetjul
post Jan 24 2018, 03:14 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 24 2018, 03:13 PM)
But not personal voluntary contribution. Not to mentioned 30% of the excess of the min amount can be used to invest elsewhere to get higher returns.
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I have no voluntary contributions.
prophetjul
post Jan 24 2018, 04:18 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 24 2018, 03:38 PM)
That's why must withdraw the excess and invest it ourselves.
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As you get older your risk appetite diminishes.

6% is not too shabby.

So asset allocation plays an important role. We cannot put everything in stocks. Reason i have gold as well.
prophetjul
post Jan 26 2018, 11:19 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Jan 25 2018, 10:41 AM)
Your post above piqued my interest and I went back to do some quick calculations mainly because to satisfy my curiosity.

I look up 10 years gold spot price from www.kitco.com.

In Jan 2008, gold spot is USD 850 and ten years later in Jan 2018, the gold spot is USD 1,310

Using a quick financial calculator, the annualised return for gold spot for ten years period is 4.42% p.a.

To compare, in the FSM S'pore UT table, there are 140 Mutual Funds that have annualised return above 4.42% p.a. for the past ten years.

Why I did not use 15 years?

Because FSM S'pore UT data is max'ed out at 10 years historical.

For FSM M'sia , there are 70 UTF that return > 4.42% p.a. for the past ten years.

Xuzen
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Are you a Yank?

Why use Usd?
2007 Rm2300

2017 Rm5318

That's 9% CAGR.

2002 RM 1100

2017 RM 5318

11% CAGR

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Jan 26 2018, 11:24 PM
prophetjul
post Jan 26 2018, 11:22 PM

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QUOTE(Singh_Kalan @ Jan 25 2018, 12:38 PM)
No way gold can achieve 11% CAGR over 15 years.  That's just some pipe dream.  The actual figure should be less than 5% CAGR
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You shoul do some calculations

here

http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?csrf=5886e...h=12&EndYr=2017


Don't simply pluck a random number.

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Jan 26 2018, 11:24 PM
prophetjul
post Jan 26 2018, 11:26 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 26 2018, 03:37 PM)
That's what I suspected,...I think bro prophet entered in 2000,...
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i entered around 2001 to 2002 when gold was trading around Rm1100.
prophetjul
post Jan 26 2018, 11:29 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Jan 26 2018, 04:28 PM)
ahh thanks for the graph..

then.. I guess He should have enter way earlier.. No wonder can make very good return..
but seriously, Not everyone is lucky to enter that low..
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you are right.

Not everyone was lucky to be attracted to gold then. It was a very dead asset.
i was studying it since 1999 before i took a big plunge in 2001.
My bet was just to beat FD rates.

Those days one could only buy gold bullions, no gold accounts or ETFs.

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Jan 26 2018, 11:30 PM

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