Reporting in Sir!
Sir.. waiting for the fat pitch before swinging my 2nd tranche sir!
Low 1900s aimed sir

It may not matter
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/...eal-is-reached/

Why a recession may be coming no matter what fiscal-cliff deal is reached
December 18, 2012, 12:49 PM
How will the fiscal cliff talks end? Will the leaders reach a last-minute deal, saving the economy from disaster, like a script of a typical television drama?

Spoiler alert: We could already be in a recession. This is not the conventional wisdom. The common narrative goes some like talks look ugly, but in the end things will get resolved either before Jan. 1 or later in the month and the economy gets a new lease on life. See MarketWatch’s fiscal-cliff page.

The recession signal is being sent from the latest U.S. current account deficit report released earlier Tuesday.

According to the data, imports are now down two months in a row having fallen 8.4% in the third quarter and 2% in the prior quarter. This is a rare event and has definitely raises the recessionary “red flag,” according to Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. When the economy weakens, imports weaken rather quickly, Brusca notes.

The last time imports declined for two quarters was in 2009, the end of a four-quarter slide in imports during the Great Recession.

Fewer imports is a sign that domestic demand is faltering. A recession is “a real risk,” Brusca said.

It is definitely not a great economic environment for the austerity that is coming next year, regardless of the outcome of the fiscal-cliff negotiations.

Brusca suggest congressional Republicans and the White House make a small deal to avoid the fiscal cliff and put off major deficit reduction until the economic outlook clears up.

“Now is not the time to take easy tax breaks, like the deduction of mortgage interest, that is driving the economy,” he said. “If you don’t think this is a risky situation, you are just not using your head.”

– Greg Robb

similar to 2007 before 2008?
or 1996 before 1997, 1997 "recovery" before the major hit in 1998 (KLCI plunged to 200+)?

aiya - balance (asset allocation).. ohm.. balance (asset allocation).. ohm.. coz no working crystal balls yet

AmBond (same old same old stodgy) & OSK-UOB Emerging Markets Bond Fund (something different & look at them performance, though ada front load) are my target for transferring my PBond & PSTBF to FSM platform (silver & gold discounts, here i come!!)

Your mileage may vary

I tells U... latest pain in the butt (other than downgrade of FPAdvisor & bugs in CAMS2 software irking me to start the snowball to FSM) my cousin's EPF investment kena tahan & asked Qs cow cow earlier this week by PM... if i can find a way to do EPF A/C1 with FSM cheaper and faster than PM now, i'd just walk

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Added on December 25, 2012, 5:12 pmREITs vs UTs?
Based on the reasoning of INCOME investing primarily & CAPITAL GAINS only as secondary, i'd do REITs directly
UNLESS
I want exposure to REITs in markets i can't get to OR can't buy cost effectively with RM3K.

Reason:
Since REITs is relatively simple to quantify & qualify to buy (when it is of value to one), i don't see why i should pay a fund house 1.x%pa to "manage & audit them" for me. Keep cost low, break even faster, better probability of profiting & higher profits too.
Thus, instead of doing monthly $500 into UT, i'd hold monthly and after 3 months or more, buy into REITs that meet my values.
Heck, if i hold for 12 months+/-, i can cost effect buy SG REITs

In addition, cash dividends in hand and not auto-reinvested can be a blessing as auto-reinvesting when REITs/valuation is rich isn't too smart. I'd rather keep them aside in flexi mortgage / bond fund / money market fund and build-up as extra ammo when valuation is good to buy. Pls note that some REITs allow auto-reinvesting but personally, i've not taken that option.

Just my 2 cents - not gospel truth yar

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Dec 25 2012, 05:15 PM

Hi Aoisky.
Take a peek @ http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2498000/+460#entry57048773
and the previous "versions" V3 and V2.
I think i posted a "how to" in V3 (the previous version).

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Added on December 25, 2012, 9:01 pmOh.. heheh my bad.

er.. what's the diff between former & later ar?
One is $ from UT, one is $ from REITs - both assumed to be same size & returns %.

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Dec 25 2012, 09:01 PM

hehe - too many undefined variables leh to me.
eg.
is my excess cash > my dividend chqs or vice versa or ?

anyhow, the way i read/understood the former vs latter diff from what U posted just above this reply. gomenasai
I think the trip up for me was "why would anyone invest excess cash YET spend dividend income"?
sorry - 1 or 0 kinda fler here, IT mar

Personally, if i have created excess cash, i'd invest into growing assets.
If i have too much excess cash and enough assets already, i won't be investing the excess (in either UT or REITs/div stocks) but spending it and the dividend income

BTW, REITs would be more tax efficient than dividend stocks for dividends. Stocks have a higher potential of capital gains/loss though

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Dec 27 2012, 08:25 AM

based on common logic - when ppl chase up the price of something, the yield (based on price that U bought in mar) goes down or in changgih talk "yield compresssion".
ppl "fear" equities, thus move/hold in bonds/bond funds, thus... thus... thus the above

my 2 cents, not gospel truth

Note - if U bought several years ago and holding, still getting similar DY% as last time right? Coz your cost was those days, not nowadays' prices

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Added on December 28, 2012, 1:25 pmTabulating my net worth and investment assets + seeing them grow MONTHLY is part of my entertainment & leisure
I digress though hehe - balance i think, is best unless U want your "naughty kid"-side to come out and bomb your savings/investments. Seen this happening in friends and myself - the "what about me!" (fun seeking kid side) causes splurges and "accidental investments" when i didn't give balanced attention to "him"

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Dec 28 2012, 01:25 PM

Pink - China Brazil Russia still in their low mids leh (52 weeks hi/lo). Throw a BRIC at yr investments?
http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/mar...orldmarkets.asp

Your mileage may vary .

No master sifu here bro. See-food (eat food) ada lar
I dont predict - i just buy assets like buying groceries, i'm a simpleton really heheh.

When i see rice extra cheap, i buy much more to keep and use
When i see rice expensive, i buy just a little OR buy noodles instead
Same concept with chicken meat VS fish VS other meats
Thus, i'm BRIC-king too - using DCA+VCA + part of my lump sums (like Pink, bonus came in - thank U bosses <kiss ass> <kiss ass>)

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Added on December 31, 2012, 4:29 pmWhy not if U are holding too much Fixed Income assets?
I gotta "force feed" into Equities (real estate/REITs related + "normal" stocks/equities) as i'm a bit lopsided VS my planned max holding of Fixed Income.
Oh yeah - and like Mois said, why not DCA or value average into them every quarter?

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Dec 31 2012, 04:30 PM

I wish we can do Vanguard series easily here sigh.. (BTW, i did poke Vanguard's SG arm but they flatly turned me away)
From one of the audiobooks i "read", Vanguard's sales charges AND annual mgt fees are low (usually 0% and 0.4%pa respectively).
In addition, whatever funds Vanguard has, each fund owns a piece of Vanguard itself.
Thus, whatever Vanguard the company makes off its clients, its clients actually get back some (less business running costs lar).
Dunno still true or not lar these days - the audio book was a few years old and if i'm not mistaken, from the book "Four Pillars of Investing".

Cool or what?
Imagine PM doing that, the 5.5% or % SC and 1.x% annual mgt fees, partially goes back to fund holders coz PM's shares are incorporated into every fund PM sells.

Sigh...

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Jan 3 2013, 11:05 PM

Hi David83.
From my understanding, the special service charge of 0.5% is for all funds, whether AI (additional investments?) or II (initial investments?).

aiyo, 2008 to early 2009, index 40%+ losses ONLY mar heheh
1996 - 1998, index 80%+ losses leh
The "nuts falling off feeling"....

---------------
Just to share another website / page i found useful for "eye one see all" markets situation
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_30...dc_pastcalendar


This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Jan 6 2013, 04:33 PM

VS
Asia Bonds
http://asianbondsonline.adb.org/regional/d...ent_bond_yields

Nice... i like the special sector indices.
Danke

Arrgh... i'm still waiting for another 3 weeks to rebalance a bit via FSM's 0.5% lelong charges
BRICs and Frontier markets - please WAIT for me.....

Hopefully that flu outbreak thinggy in US scares the markets down a bit hehe.
My bad - one man's meat, another's poison (the above not too good for those already in mah)

Brazil fell quite a bit past few days + Russia fell too
Throw a BRIC?

heheh .. today fall!

Good REIT funds?

I'm doing AmAP REIT fund & will be getting into Global Property Fund coming 26th 0.5% lelong by FSM, purely for allocating a bit to other countries as i cant find much value in SG or MY REITs but need to bump up my % in that asset class.

Thus note I'm unsure these 2 are"best of the best" heheh