QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Mar 11 2013, 11:31 PM)
Quite reasonable comments. They always say that if u want an objective opinion never ask those who have invested in the property and surely never ask the salesmen themselves. The answer would be obvious. When i bought my last 2 condo's i actually went around to the competitors and asked them what they thought the negatives bout my condo were. I too had the same opinion so it wasnt anything surprising.
The mistake that many ppl make is that they evaluate a property from a salesman's eye by only looking at the positives without much consideration for the negatives. They quote often amplify the positives and minimise the negatives. In order to make an informed decision, you have to consider both sides, weigh the odds of each situation happening and then have a backup plan if things dont work out as planned. Its pointless to go on and on saying it will appreciate to say 1,800 psf in 2016. What if it doesnt? What if it stagnates or worse still, drops instead? What if values dont appreciate as expected and to top that you dont get tenants willing to pay even 60% of your asking rental price? What's your back up plan then?
Sometimes we need to ask ourselves, if a property value can jump from 1,100 psf in 2013 to 1,800 psf in 2016, why arent the property developers, agents, their families and friends buying up all the units? Why are they releasing it to the public? Wont it make sense to keep such 'gems' to themselves since that way they would also have more control over future pricing? If they are so sure about the value of the property, why arent all of them invested in this? Affordability is only a small issue. There are ways for a lower income person to afford higher range of properties. But the reason why they arent all investing in that same property is because of risk. No property investment comes without risk and they know that. Risks must be managed well and spread in order to be minimised.
Everybody expects good capital appreciation and rental yields from our invested properties and if it happens then well and good. Every new property launch in history has made such promises but how many have actually delivered on that? Can we actually say that 80% have achieved what was promised within a certain period? Of course if u put a time frame of 10 years for capital appreciation, i would think all new launches would appreciate handsomely. But when ure talking about just 3 years, thats like trying to short circuit the entire cycle of property appreciation and expecting the same results. This can happen and its entirely dependent on which stage of the property cycle ure at. If you ask those who bought properties in 2008/2009 for instance (me included), it wont be uncommon to hear of appreciation figures of even 80%. But will it be the same for those buying properties in 2013? Personally, i think we're almost at the tail end of a property peak in Malaysia and when ure at the peak there's only 1 way to go. Its just like gold investment. Ppl who have observed gold trends will know that if u invest in gold for short term gains, chances are ure gonna get burnt as gold sees its value long term. Also dont forget that although new launch prices are rising, subsales are not rising in tandem while rental yields are dropping or stagnant. A healthy situation would be to have all 3 rising together with income levels. But now we have 1 rising fast while the other 3 rising very slowly, stagnating or dropping. This isnt sustainable.
What more and more property experts are saying (and i dont mean those hired by developers to speak well of their launches), is that there are still good investments to be made but it may not be with properties >900 psf price range. Its mostly with properties in good locations with good amenities <650 psf. Good locations do not always need to be the best location as best locations come with premium. But to make a wise decision, learn to look beyond the marketing gimmicks e.g dinners, exclusive launch events, close door balloting, privilaged invites, etc. Then ull see the true value in the property. I recently attended a launch function for a high end condo which the developer got BMW Malaysia to also co-host the event. They even got the members of the Malaysian media e.g Hitz.FM, etc to attend. It was a black tie event with all the fanfare and good dinner spread. But after all that, i still wasnt convinced that this project would be a good investment decision. For own stay surely but i had my doubts about the short term investment potential.
In short, always be a smart investor. I too learnt from some of the more seasoned investors (quite a few in LYN actually). To be a smart investor , u have to consider all odds and keep your mind focused on the main objective at all times. Never allow yourself to be distracted by the 'surface attractions'.
Cheers!
This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Mar 12 2013, 12:35 PM