Any idea whats the price of the commercial units? I think the residential units are too expensive. Dijaya is clearly raking in future profits. Imagine charging RM1K psf in Kota Damansara.

Any info?

Good sales during launch is never a yardstick of the long term success of the development and guaranteed capital returns in future. Its just shows the success by the developer in clearing their stock now. Most ppl now are in BBB mode because they assume that their property will appreciate in the future the same way the property market has appreciated since 2009. The same thing is happening in China and Canada where the property market is starting to drop. The warning signs are all there for Malaysia's property market and everything is pointing towards a slump in 2015/2016. This is why i think developers are rushing to build and sell now before that 2015/2016 period.

Im also an investor but i would always advice prudence. Gauging the success of a development purely by initial take up rate is not wise at all. If the property ure investing in is setting a new benchmark price or close to the benchmark price for that area, then its dangerous. Room for capital appreciation will be limited and you would be the first to be hit in the event of a property market slump. Always buy within your means and ensure you have the holding power in case the property doesnt appreciate as expected and you are unable to rent out.

http://www.wealthwire.com/news/global/4599

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/20...fore-the-crash/

Paper profit must translate into actual profit to be considered a profit. This can only happen upon sale.

I think its more like the developer has realised they can make money from investors who dont bother to check the market and blindly buy. Typical herd mentality. Those who bought Phase 1 would benefit the most. Phase 2 buyers better have the holding power in 2015/2016. If not, they will be screwed big time. Dont bank on rental here. Nobody will be crazy enuf to pay RM5K rental here even with the MRT. Seasoned property investors who know the market well and have done sufficient research will know that this price range is typically Dijaya taking advantage to earn more money now while they still can.

Isnt this the case before all property market collapses? What do u think happens in the years preceeding a property market crash? U think ppl stopped buying for 10 years and then the collapse happened?

Please use the net to read up on what happened in the US and Vietnam before the property market went bust. Read what's happening to China and Canada now. Even major business media like Bloomberg, CNN Money, Business Week, etc are warning about an impending property market crash. There are already ghost towns in China where new developments have been snapped up by buyers during the launch but after completion there were no subsale buyers or renters.

Most ppl in Malaysia are buying because of easy ownership schemes like DIBS, etc. But none of these schemes would be available during subsale later on so that would really limit the market of prospective buyers. How many of us can afford to put a 10% downpayment on a RM 1.3 mil property? And also come up with legal & loan documentation costs, stamp duty, etc as all this is based on a percentage of the loan. For a RM 1.3 mil property, ure easily looking at min RM 180K start up costs including fit out. How many can afford to come up with that cash? When the buying slows down, thats when prices will drop.

Dont simply have the herd mentality and dont gauge the future property market based on the price increases for the past 3 years. Flippers can make alot of profit when times are good but they are also the first to be burnt during the bad times and facts are most of these flippers dont have the ability to sustain when their properties dont appreciate as expected and when the rental yields arent enuf to cover even 50% of the monthly repayments.

Yea and who is gonna buy? Only 3% of the Malaysian population earn 5 figure salaries. Assuming there are some undeclared, lets put the figure at 6%. Do u know how many condo's will be entering the subsale market in 2015/2016. About 35,000 units. So this 6% of the Malaysian population is expected to buy a majority of these 1500+ psf price condos in 2016? Not to mention those other condo's going for >2,500 sf?

Do the math bro. Many of these high end condo's will be empty units held by the original investors in 2016. Look at the take up rate now. About 70% are flippers not own stayers. So u can expect 70% of the units to be suddenly thrown on the subsale market in 2016. What will happen is these flippers will start reducing prices to push off their units faster and once a few start doing, the others follow suit and what ull get is a cascading effect of dropping property prices because not many will be able to afford the high monthly loans. What happens then?

WHo told u they havent bought anywhere else? U assume they only invested in 1??

To be a smart investor, u have to spread the risks. Many of these ppl have a few properties located in a variety of areas.So if 1 area doesnt do well, they have the others as backup. Even i have 4 condo's now. 2 in a prime area and 2 more purchased last Dec in an upcoming area. Why didnt i just focus on investing in a prime area? Because there is more room for appreciation in non prime areas as long as the entry price is low. But if the entry price in non prime areas is high then its not really a good choice and the risks are not worth taking. Investing at high prices in a highly volotile area like MK, KLCC, etc is dangerous. Many ppl just focus on the positives without considering the nagative possiblities.

Even now im looking to invest in my 5th property but im being very careful. Although i can afford to pay 1500 psf but for me i think its very dangerous especially since all the indicators are pointing towards a softning of the market in 2015.

Rebounds are dependant on how bad the drop is in the first place. Also depends on how the overall economy of the country is at that time. But most importantly is investors must have the holding power cuz if they dont and they start throwing prices just to off load their properties, then ull get a dinamo effect of falling prices.

Never make money?

Some of the ppl who are against TG on this thread are actually seasoned investors whom i know personally and some actually have about 7-8 properties in other areas which have actually appreciated quite a bit. Im quite sure they aren't red eye or anything. One of my own condo's has appreciated 80% in the past 3 years and this appreciation is confirmed by the bank's valuators not by some salesman given u rosy figures.

Thats why i say u dont quite understand how this whole thing works. If u have the knowledge, u would know that not all properties are affected during a slowdown. How much your property depreciates depends alot on the original rate of appreciation in the first place. If your appreciation was drastic and within a short period and isolated compared to the rest of the properties around you, then it may not be sustainable later on. But if uve invested in MATURE areas then there's good chance for your market values to sustain itself because mature areas have a low debt ratio and consist mostly of own stay investors. Downside is that these areas dont enjoy good rental yields usually about 5.5% only.

But if u have invested in other areas but at reasonable prices which did not set a benchmark pricing during launch, then your risk is also lowered. If your pricing is only marginally higher than the actual market value then ure still fine. But if your purchase price is way above market value, then room for appreciation is very much limited and ull be hit hard in the event of a slowdown. But if u have the holding power to sustain paying the monthly loan for at least 1.5 years without being able to sell or rent (worse case scenario), then its fine.

U must be really foolish. There is nothing free in the world la. Everything has been factored into the property price. DIBS wont help with property value ok. Its just another method used by developers to push sales fast. Bearing interest during construction is only a small figure.

Yes when u cant argue like an adult u have no choice but to fall back on that 'my money not yours' like to save your ego...

Btw, we all know the real reason behind this 'free lesson' ya. Only those kiddos with no investment knowledge will be taken up by your salesman talk.

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Mar 11 2013, 04:14 PM

So the number of replies on a LYN thread determine that im the biggest loser eh? And im also an idiot as well eh? If only u knew who u were talking to.

How can DIBS help you to flip upon VP? DIBS is to make it easier for you to purchase a property but DIBS is a double edged sword. Many ppl assume that just because they could afford to purchase now then ppl in 2016 can also afford to pay more. But they fail to realise that if not for the DIBS scheme, sales will not be as good as it is now. Subsale in 2016 will not have any DIBS to push the sales. So ppl buying a RM 1.3mil property in 2016 would need to come out with at least 150K cash to purchase. Add on the inflation factor, that would cost about RM 160K in today's money, cash. Plus the fact that salaries are not rising in tandem with inflation. Also since 70% of the buyers are investors, most of these ppl will attempt to sell the moment they get VP. Imagine a few hundred units being put on the market suddenly. Is everybody gonna hold at a price and not drop? all it takes is for a few owners to start dropping prices (and they will), for all prices to start falling. many will opt to sell then they realise that ppl are not willing to pay RM5K to rent at Kota Damansara for a leasehold property especially when there are cheaper options with good facilities nearby as well.

Like i said before, the only benefactor from all of this is Dijaya and the Phase 1 owners. The rest will need alot of luck and hope that the market is still going strong in 2016.

The new developments are good if ure getting VP by next year cuz market still strong and u can earn good capital appreciation. Its just the 2015/2016 period which im worried about since more than 30K condo units will be out on the market.

Well as with all other urban rail systems, being too close and too far will not help your property. Its gotta be somewhere in the middle. Having a rail right next door will affect units directly facing the tracks. Dont forget that noise travels upwards when it comes into contact with a high rise building. Same goes for highways.

Are u refering to Phase 1? If so then u have nothing to worry actually. Even if they throw the price, it will have minimal effect on your value as their units dont make up a big number.

Quite reasonable comments. They always say that if u want an objective opinion never ask those who have invested in the property and surely never ask the salesmen themselves. The answer would be obvious. When i bought my last 2 condo's i actually went around to the competitors and asked them what they thought the negatives bout my condo were. I too had the same opinion so it wasnt anything surprising.

The mistake that many ppl make is that they evaluate a property from a salesman's eye by only looking at the positives without much consideration for the negatives. They quote often amplify the positives and minimise the negatives. In order to make an informed decision, you have to consider both sides, weigh the odds of each situation happening and then have a backup plan if things dont work out as planned. Its pointless to go on and on saying it will appreciate to say 1,800 psf in 2016. What if it doesnt? What if it stagnates or worse still, drops instead? What if values dont appreciate as expected and to top that you dont get tenants willing to pay even 60% of your asking rental price? What's your back up plan then?

Sometimes we need to ask ourselves, if a property value can jump from 1,100 psf in 2013 to 1,800 psf in 2016, why arent the property developers, agents, their families and friends buying up all the units? Why are they releasing it to the public? Wont it make sense to keep such 'gems' to themselves since that way they would also have more control over future pricing? If they are so sure about the value of the property, why arent all of them invested in this? Affordability is only a small issue. There are ways for a lower income person to afford higher range of properties. But the reason why they arent all investing in that same property is because of risk. No property investment comes without risk and they know that. Risks must be managed well and spread in order to be minimised.

Everybody expects good capital appreciation and rental yields from our invested properties and if it happens then well and good. Every new property launch in history has made such promises but how many have actually delivered on that? Can we actually say that 80% have achieved what was promised within a certain period? Of course if u put a time frame of 10 years for capital appreciation, i would think all new launches would appreciate handsomely. But when ure talking about just 3 years, thats like trying to short circuit the entire cycle of property appreciation and expecting the same results. This can happen and its entirely dependent on which stage of the property cycle ure at. If you ask those who bought properties in 2008/2009 for instance (me included), it wont be uncommon to hear of appreciation figures of even 80%. But will it be the same for those buying properties in 2013? Personally, i think we're almost at the tail end of a property peak in Malaysia and when ure at the peak there's only 1 way to go. Its just like gold investment. Ppl who have observed gold trends will know that if u invest in gold for short term gains, chances are ure gonna get burnt as gold sees its value long term. Also dont forget that although new launch prices are rising, subsales are not rising in tandem while rental yields are dropping or stagnant. A healthy situation would be to have all 3 rising together with income levels. But now we have 1 rising fast while the other 3 rising very slowly, stagnating or dropping. This isnt sustainable.

What more and more property experts are saying (and i dont mean those hired by developers to speak well of their launches), is that there are still good investments to be made but it may not be with properties >900 psf price range. Its mostly with properties in good locations with good amenities <650 psf. Good locations do not always need to be the best location as best locations come with premium. But to make a wise decision, learn to look beyond the marketing gimmicks e.g dinners, exclusive launch events, close door balloting, privilaged invites, etc. Then ull see the true value in the property. I recently attended a launch function for a high end condo which the developer got BMW Malaysia to also co-host the event. They even got the members of the Malaysian media e.g Hitz.FM, etc to attend. It was a black tie event with all the fanfare and good dinner spread. But after all that, i still wasnt convinced that this project would be a good investment decision. For own stay surely but i had my doubts about the short term investment potential.

In short, always be a smart investor. I too learnt from some of the more seasoned investors (quite a few in LYN actually). To be a smart investor , u have to consider all odds and keep your mind focused on the main objective at all times. Never allow yourself to be distracted by the 'surface attractions'.

Cheers!

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Mar 12 2013, 12:35 PM

U assume too much the same way u assume i have not already invested in KD.