Could not brain what is said in wiki and another site e-how on modigliani ratio... got lost in the calculations and another required benchmark portfolio which is missing in my data.

Sharpe ratio looks easier to digest and to compute (since standard deviation is an excel function), but still not sure whether I got it right.

Several questions if you or anyone can help to resolve:
- Can I use sharpe ratio on monthly returns (ie. the % increments on each month for the year)?
- In comparing 2 funds, the fund with the higher sharpe figure is the better fund after risk-adjusted?
- Below is 2 sets of numbers from 2 funds, is the sharpe calculation correct?

Fund A:
12 months average increment (in %) = 0.94
12 months average risk-free return (FD rate of 3%) = 3/12 = 0.25
Standard deviation = 2.972
Sharpe ratio = (0.94 - 0.25) / 2.972 = 0.23

Fund B:
12 months average increment (in %) = 0.855
12 months average risk-free return (FD rate of 3%) = 3/12 = 0.25
Standard deviation = 1.824
Sharpe ratio = (0.855 - 0.25) / 1.824 = 0.33

- Barring other factors, even though Fund A returns is higher for the year, Fund B is the better fund to select as it has a higher Sharpe ration which indicates that it has lesser deviation/volatility and lesser risk? Correct?

I think you're making up stuff... either that or you have not even bother to check the its current NAV price and its performance chart. No way to loose money on this fund unless you bought it this month and it had yet to recover the service charge. This fund is already up over 8% this year, and it's only 1.5 months.

A good question would be whether to buy more... Someone asked this very question last month, and I was fortunate to act on it, and should I top up again?

P.S. Check the number of units you're having... only losing funds like PSCF have yet to give any distributions since day 1.

PPS. oh, that's a quick reply. Read my previous post again... and maybe registered for the online service and logged in for updates instead of waiting for statements.


This post has been edited by j.passing.by: Feb 19 2013, 03:45 PM

only if it is Far East Property...

Wintersun, looks like we're like chicken talking to ducks...

Here's the list of Far East funds and theirs NAV prices for 18/2
PUBLIC FAR-EAST ALPHA-30 FUND 0.2318
PUBLIC FAR-EAST BALANCED FUND 0.2209
PUBLIC FAR-EAST CONSUMER THEMES FUND 0.2689
PUBLIC FAR-EAST DIVIDEND FUND 0.2146
PUBLIC FAR-EAST PROPERTY & RESORTS FUND 0.3177
PUBLIC FAR-EAST SELECT FUND 0.2363
PUBLIC FAR-EAST TELCO & INFRASTRUCTURE FUND 0.2960

so, cannot simply say Far East la...

This post has been edited by j.passing.by: Feb 19 2013, 06:13 PM

In my amateur and non-professional opinion, I don't think it is as easy as that. It's like on a race track, asking for tips - and the tips is only good for that race.

There's no shortcut if we want to pick winners every weekend without knowing a bit of the background of the horses and their past performances.

This analogy at the race track is still not closed enough, try imagining that you are the jockey and have to ride the horse too... we then have to match your size and weight and riding skills to the appropriate horse with its individual temperament as well.

Get the picture of the task at hand?

The best I can contribute here is a short brief on the funds you're having.
PSBF - Public Select Bond Fund
PEBF - Public Enhanced Bond Fund
PIEBF - Public Islamic Enhanced Bond Fund
PCSF - Public China Select Fund
PITTIKAL - Public Ittikal Fund

The 1st bond fund is closed for new investments and only open to investment via EPF. If you switched out, you cannot switch back in if it is not an EPF investment.

The 2nd and 3rd bond funds are special bond funds with up to 30% of the fund can be invested in equities by the fund manager. If not mistaken, they are also more or less also closed to new investments since you now need at least 100k to enter.

China Select - what more can be we say here, it is a stupid fund for stupid people like me - I lost money too, like 40% of what I put in.

So far this year, it is up 2.14%, but dropped a bit this month... and maybe a bit more today with Hang Seng Index down -1.02% and the H-Share (or Hang Seng China Enterprise) -1.79%. It is performing, since 1st Jan, better than China Titan Fund; and better than China Ittikal Fund which is in negative zone. (Slow horse is okay but if running backwards, how to win the race if it cannot reach the finish line?)

Public Ittikal - this fund is also closed except for investment via EPF. Not among the top local horses in 2012, but still gave an increment of 13% for the year. It is categorised by Public Mutual as a moderate fund. Personally, I would prefer Islamic Dividend Fund which is similarly categorised as a moderate fund.

Cheers... happy investing!

Without knowing further about your financial means and trend of savings, it is best to say that a similar fund like Islamic Dividends is better fund than Public Ittikal (based on past performances of the funds.) How much to switch? Only you would know best.

Only thing that matters is the switching charge and how cost effective it would be to switch one time or to split the switch to several times. Look up my previous post on switching costs.

What I can safely say is that your funds are relatively conservative; and possibly planned for a long term investment. The thing that threw in the spanner into the plan is that PCSF. It is an aggressive & volatile fund.

Maybe the initial idea of a "balanced" portfolio is a combination of some very conservative bond funds, mix in a couple of moderate equity funds and add in an aggressive fund. A nice cocktail. Only problem with the drink is that it tasted really bad because of a wrong ingredient - PCSF.

Maybe it is about time to junk it and switch to another foreign equity fund like Public SEA or Far-East Property, instead of waiting for a miracle to happen. Maybe a miracle has had already happened! Since 1st July 2012, it already increased by 11%. Will it go up or down from today, your guess is as good as mine.

Even if we believed that the economy in the ASEAN and Asia region will improve for the rest of the year and the next several years, and all boats will rise by the tide - but take note that all boats are not build the same, some will rise higher, and those with holes will have difficulty to rise!

P.S. Take note of service charges if you exit and enter into another fund house. If you're into UT for the long term, maybe better to stick to one company to built up the savings - there is usually a minimal amount of investment where the switching fee is waived.

high risk, not death-defying risk... china market is like swimming with sharks...

and Public Mutual is big shark or fish food?

oh, a wolf in sheep skin.
You should be giving us tips instead of asking!

yup, big fish in small pond. Still big enough to swim in the Melaka Straits, but it can become fish food to the sharks swimming in the big ocean.

In buying/selling stocks, there is a buyer and seller, and both cannot make profit - one must loose while the other wins.

Guess who will emerge the winners when big sharks rules the battlefield and you're only a big fish in unfamiliar territory?

Heard that Hong Kong is proposing to extend trading hours in April so that the big boys in Europe/America can have longer playing hours, so better watch out.

See the market drop, and switch out before 4pm, only an hour or so before market closed... with extended hours, you can only watch it fall and fall and fall every hour and nothing you can do about it. (As all the control of the fund, other than entering/exiting the fund, is in the hands of the fund manager...)

===============

"Past performances is not an indicative of future performances" or something like that is often quoted.

Correlatively, a good performance in the past is not likely to ensure a good performance in the future.

And a previously bad performer is more unlikely to perform better in the future than a previously good performer.

How to know which is a bad performer to weed out? Simple, by comparing its performance to its benchmark's performance.

What if lazy to go through the "performance chart" in Public Mutual website or read the quarterly reports?
Ok, a quick and dirty way to narrow down the long list of funds as a possible candidates to select, is by its nav prices - as posted and explained in a previous post.

Since, currently, all the market indices are near or at their peak, a fund that is better than its benchmark should be near or above its parity RM0.2500.

I would dismiss these funds immediately - no need to waste time:
(figures at the right end is the NAV price)
21/2/2013 PB CHINA PACIFIC EQUITY FUND PBCPEF 0.1586
21/2/2013 PUBLIC CHINA SELECT FUND PCSF 0.1617
21/2/2013 PB EURO PACIFIC EQUITY FUND PBEPEF 0.1772
21/2/2013 PUBLIC CHINA ITTIKAL FUND PCIF 0.1778
21/2/2013 PB ISLAMIC ASIA STRATEGIC SECTOR FUND PBIASSF 0.1915
21/2/2013 PB CHINA AUSTRALIA EQUITY FUND PBCAUEF 0.1967

Would also dismiss the next batch of volatile funds:
21/2/2013 PUBLIC GLOBAL SELECT FUND PGSF 0.2046
21/2/2013 PUBLIC REGIONAL SECTOR FUND PRSEC 0.2057
21/2/2013 PB ASIA EQUITY FUND PBAEF 0.2122
21/2/2013 PUBLIC TACTICAL ALLOCATION FUND *** PTAF 0.2132
21/2/2013 PUBLIC FAR-EAST DIVIDEND FUND PFEDF 0.2136
21/2/2013 PUBLIC CHINA TITANS FUND PCTF 0.2207
21/2/2013 PUBLIC FAR-EAST BALANCED FUND PFEBF 0.2208
21/2/2013 PB ISLAMIC ASIA EQUITY FUND PBIAEF 0.2213
21/2/2013 PUBLIC NATURAL RESOURCES EQUITY FUND PNREF 0.2241
21/2/2013 PUBLIC FAR-EAST ALPHA-30 FUND PFA30F 0.2322
21/2/2013 PUBLIC FAR-EAST SELECT FUND PFES 0.2332

Those at the upper end too, since they are mostly old funds with accumulative values from long ago:
(Good if your looking for stability and not so aggressive funds .)
21/2/2013 PUBLIC GROWTH FUND PGF 0.4720
21/2/2013 PUBLIC INDUSTRY FUND PIF 0.5033
21/2/2013 PUBLIC SAVINGS FUND PSF 0.5397
21/2/2013 PUBLIC AGGRESSIVE GROWTH FUND PAGF 0.6197
21/2/2013 PUBLIC REGULAR SAVINGS FUND PRSF 0.6453
21/2/2013 PUBLIC BALANCED FUND PBF 0.6502
21/2/2013 PUBLIC INDEX FUND PIX 0.6583
21/2/2013 PB GROWTH FUND PBGF 0.7299
21/2/2013 PUBLIC SMALLCAP FUND PSMALLCAP 0.7382
21/2/2013 PB BALANCED FUND PBBF 0.7690
21/2/2013 PUBLIC ITTIKAL FUND PITTIKAL 0.8661

This next batch is worth a look, selectively on some of them:
21/2/2013 PB ASIA PACIFIC ENTERPRISES FUND PBAPENTF 0.2409
21/2/2013 PUBLIC ISLAMIC ASIA LEADERS EQUITY FUND PIALEF 0.2426
21/2/2013 PUBLIC ISLAMIC ASIA TACTICAL ALLOCATION FUND ** PIATAF 0.2427
21/2/2013 PB CHINA ASEAN EQUITY FUND PBCAEF 0.2429
21/2/2013 PB ISLAMIC EQUITY FUND PBIEF 0.2456
21/2/2013 PB MIXED ASSET CONSERVATIVE FUND PBMAC 0.2501
21/2/2013 PUBLIC STRATEGIC SMALLCAP FUND PSSCF 0.2608
21/2/2013 PUBLIC ISLAMIC SAVINGS FUND PISVF 0.2611
21/2/2013 PUBLIC ISLAMIC ASIA DIVIDEND FUND PIADF 0.2617
21/2/2013 PUBLIC ISLAMIC ALPHA-40 GROWTH FUND PIA40GF 0.2640
21/2/2013 PUBLIC ASIA ITTIKAL FUND PAIF 0.2665
21/2/2013 PUBLIC EQUITY FUND PEF 0.2676
21/2/2013 PUBLIC ITTIKAL SEQUEL FUND PITSEQ 0.2678
21/2/2013 PUBLIC FAR-EAST CONSUMER THEMES FUND PFECTF 0.2681

And now the current performers:
Separated into 3 categories:
1) Public series, local:
21/2/2013 PUBLIC FOCUS SELECT FUND PFSF 0.2731
21/2/2013 PUBLIC ISLAMIC MIXED ASSET FUND * PIMXAF 0.2773
21/2/2013 PUBLIC ISLAMIC OPTIMAL GROWTH FUND PIOGF 0.2789
21/2/2013 PUBLIC SECTOR SELECT FUND PSSF 0.2814
21/2/2013 PUBLIC ISLAMIC SECTOR SELECT FUND PISSF 0.2837
21/2/2013 PUBLIC DIVIDEND SELECT FUND PDSF 0.3003
21/2/2013 PUBLIC OPTIMAL GROWTH FUND POGF 0.3037
21/2/2013 PUBLIC SELECT ALPHA-30 FUND PSA30F 0.3047
21/2/2013 PUBLIC ISLAMIC SELECT TREASURES FUND PISTF 0.3072
21/2/2013 PUBLIC ISLAMIC OPPORTUNITIES FUND PIOF 0.3279
21/2/2013 PUBLIC ISLAMIC EQUITY FUND PIEF 0.3483
21/2/2013 PUBLIC ISLAMIC DIVIDEND FUND PIDF 0.3755
21/2/2013 PUBLIC ISLAMIC SELECT ENTERPRISES FUND PISEF 0.3911

2) Public series, foreign:
21/2/2013 PUBLIC ISLAMIC TREASURES GROWTH FUND PITGF 0.2837
21/2/2013 PUBLIC SINGAPORE EQUITY FUND PSGEF 0.2866
21/2/2013 PUBLIC AUSTRALIA EQUITY FUND PAUEF 0.2900
21/2/2013 PUBLIC FAR-EAST TELCO & INFRASTRUCTURE FUND PFETIF 0.2921
21/2/2013 PUBLIC SOUTH-EAST ASIA SELECT FUND PSEASF 0.2951
21/2/2013 PUBLIC INDONESIA SELECT FUND PINDOSF 0.3063
21/2/2013 PUBLIC FAR-EAST PROPERTY & RESORTS FUND PFEPRF 0.3193

(note: PITGF is mainly in local stocks, though it is categorised as 'foreign'.)

3) PB series:
21/2/2013 PB GROWTH SEQUEL FUND PBGSQF 0.2706
21/2/2013 PB INDONESIA BALANCED FUND PBINDOBF 0.2797
21/2/2013 PB ASIA EMERGING GROWTH FUND PBAEGF 0.2850
21/2/2013 PB SINGAPORE ADVANTAGE-30 EQUITY FUND PBSGA30EF 0.2891
21/2/2013 PB AUSTRALIA DYNAMIC BALANCED FUND PBADBF 0.2963
21/2/2013 PB ASIA REAL ESTATE INCOME FUND PBAREIF 0.3010
21/2/2013 PB ASEAN DIVIDEND FUND PBADF 0.3191

(Funds highlighted in red: closed for new investment.)
(Funds highlighted in green: closed but open to EPF.)

Take your pick!
(Then compare your selection individually against each other based on their standard deviation or Sharpe Ratio...)

Cheers, happy investing.

read slowly lah... logic already given.

Not sure what you meant "NAV should not deviate much from 0.2500". You meant that fund should be in the short list?

Maybe it should... but if we were to pick just 3 local funds (as Public Mutual is known for its conservative local funds) and one foreign fund (for diversity), the short list is more than enough to consider.

From the short list, I'll be wary of those specific countries (Sing, Aus, Indon) funds... would rather pick ASEAN funds and allow more room (for the fund manager to select stocks) for diversity.

Far-East Property, as noted in a previous post, nothing far east about it as it is mainly in the 4 neighbouring countries (mal, thai, sing & indo) and some small portion in HK and Aus. That's why it is performing well.

(PB Asia Real Estate is minus HK and Aus - and should have been named Asean Real Estate.)

===============

If still too lazy and the short list is not short enough, just look at the awards PM collected last year. They are no beauty or popularity contests and subjectively being given awards, in my layman's eyes, there must be some sound statistical reason behind the awards.

- Public Focus Select Fund, equity malaysia small and mid caps, 3 years.
- PB Asia Real Estate Income Fund, mixed asset MYR balance (global), 3 years
- Public Asia Ittikal Fund, equity asia pacific, 3 years.
- Public Smallcap Fund, equity malaysia small and mid caps, 5 years & years (2 awards won also no use to us, since it is closed.)

===============

IMHO, PB Asia Real Estate should be monitored; it could be one of those over-subscribed funds in future and then closed; an opportunity to get in at basement when it is still possible to do so now.

I still recalled I was approached by an agent (a pretty lass too), in a shopping mall when Public SmallCap was launched with promotional service charge, but did not buy...

If the investment/savings plan is for retirement, don't be too certain that good stable funds would still be opened for your EPF monies.

G'nite... happy weekend!


This post has been edited by j.passing.by: Feb 23 2013, 10:21 PM

aiyoh, read slowly la, how did the last 3 paragraphs lead you to conclude that it will closed soon...

It's a suggestion that good and stable funds must be monitored more closely... get in when you can do so... don't wait until you retire and then only start looking; but by then, good and stable funds are already closed.

PB Real Estate looks promising... (and I repeat) so "it could be one of those over-subscribed funds in future".

"IMHO" - means In My Humble Opinion - it is an opinion, not news.

"... must be monitored..." - please don't interpret as "buy now". As mentioned, all the (relevant) markets are at or near peak/record level, it is best to enter when the market or nav price dips.

"... when it is still possible to do so now." - "now" does not necessary means "today" or "immediately" in English, it should be interpreted, together with the context of the 3 paragraphs to mean the "present" as in "not the future" . (It can be just an expression, as used in the below sentence.)

okay?

(Hope you can understand what I wrote... hope I understood what I wrote too. Am neither a professional financial adviser or english teacher! LOL )

==================

Now, back to the quick and dirty shortlisted funds in the previous post...

"Quick and dirty" because it took less than a minute to copy and paste the entire list into excel, and then sort it on its nav price from smallest to highest.

There was some doubts on the validity of the rankings, and maybe I should expand its "logic" a bit further...

I was slightly surprised how reasonably rational the rankings turned out; possibly due to the near peak/record levels of the markets. I don't think it will be a well-ordered list in adverse market conditions.

On question whether 1 to 3 years should make the list and be considered... a good question.

Similarly, should a fund be faulted because it was launched just before the market plunged and is compared to another fund launched after the plunged; and the comparison is based solely on the NAV price?

I don't think recently launched funds should be left out; it already has a track record after a full year. A 2-year fund can be compared against a 4-year fund based on its nav price... because there's distribution and distribution reduces its nav price.

(And PM seemed to have the same distribution policy across all the equity funds; and thus validate the comparisons and rankings of the funds.)

Say, launched price of fund A - 0.2500. 1st year, increased to 0.2625. After distribution, dropped to 0.2575. And so forth on the 2nd, 3rd, 4th year... If the yearly increment is not high, distribution could even dropped the price back to 0.2500 or even slightly less to 0.2495.

By the 2nd year, fund B is already launched, and nav price of A won't be too far ahead of B (because of the distributions), and based on their nav prices, and if fund A is slightly higher than B, fund A do deserved its higher ranking since it already has a longer track record than B.

See, the distributions even the playing field slightly to B's favour; and the comparison (based on nav price) is fair.

Now the tricky part; what if Fund A went through 2 years of adverse market just before B is launched?
Fund A would be unfairly ranked against B; since Fuad A could be 0.2300 and B 0.2505.

But this argument does not matter and does not derail the "quick & dirty" rankings.

Since both did not made the short-list!

================

Looking at the bottom two batches of "poor" funds, they are all foreign funds; out of the bottom six funds, four are "China". Can we conclude that it validates the "big fish in small pond" argument?

Some may argue that it is not totally "big-fish-small-pond" syndrome, and it is also partly due to wrong timing and very adverse market just after the funds were launched.

But based against their benchmarks (which some said they are staked, bias and lope-sided in the first place)... sigh, you make the conclusion, tired to write.

================

Okay, here's a wrong way to judge a fund based on nav prices alone.

It will be wrong to ask "NAV price is at record high; should I top up or wait?" Also wrong to think "NAV price is very low, should I buy?"

No, no, no. Buying/selling is always based on the market trend. Buy low, sell high....

Yahoo is your friend here. It has nifty charts on KLCI, HSI, STI, etc.. click the technical charts and select 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages....

So, get ready and be prepared and know what to buy when the market dips...

================

"Nav price is very low, should I buy?"

Becareful, it may not be due to market condition and undervalued...

don't wrongly think "... market improved, it will rise higher and better than other similar funds since it has lowest price, percentage-wise increase is also higher."

This is UT, not investing in individual shares. How possible that the UT is holding mostly, like 30 to 50, undervalued stocks?

It could also be a "dead" fund. Market improved, other funds rise higher; adverse market, it dropped faster!

Don't expect (as chinese says) salty fish becomes alive. LOL.

================

Some of the writings are for those in similar position as me - stage 2 investors - already build up the savings, no more fresh investments, just doing switching to jump in/out of equities.

(Vs. stage 1 investors - just starting and making regular DCA investments. Switching costs may not be cost-effective.)

end of bedtime story... G'nite.

Running with the bull... and how not to get trampled?

If you’re holding the right funds (as moi ), the emotion is high and at the same time, a bit scary too.

(FYI, the fastest horse has clocked 14.9% this year... vs. -2.0% on a lame horse).

Top-up? Hmmm, scared the bull run will suddenly stop.

Pull-out? Hmmm, looks like the bull will keep running, and running, and running...

So how? Maybe top-up bit by bit, every 2 weeks... and pray that the bull will keep running till it clear the 3-mths switch-out penalty...

What if 3-mths line is not cleared? Just eat the penalty fee lo... (and hope the fast horse already clear the 0.75% line... LOL )

one way to die standing too!

cannot simply throw money on bets like this leh... betting on NAV price alone will sure die standing...

".... touching the lower limit of Bollinger band and when the Fast MA cross the Slow MA from the top. "

Above quote is from a master sifu... 2 pages or so back...

My rookie way is enter when fast moving average crossed slow MA from the bottom and 'ride the bull till I dropped/fainted/scared/whatever'.

"JPB, which fund is the 14%?"

Hi Pink,
Public Indonesia Select Fund

But I don't like this horse... too fast for me, beginner rider... a slower horse fit me just nice; which I mentioned several times in previous posts.

"Hi j.passing.by,
How you do TA using Bollinger on Public Mutual ? I didnt know any software and TA can apply on FUND. hmm.gif

Can share...i would like know. thumbup.gif"

felixmask, no, I don't do any TA (technical analysis) on Public Mutual; no reason to do so since they are mutual funds spread over a wide range of stocks; so what I do is look at the stock indexes of the whole economy - I think I posted before, something about indices in yahoo.

The quote I used is from Xuzen - a respected poster in this forum. (Those whom I called "sifu" in this forum is an acknowledgement that their views and past posts should be dig back for closer study... especially those new to this forum.)

Bollinger band (which also can be selected, aside from the 20-day MA, 50-day etc. etc,, in yahoo), if I'm not mistaken, is the upper and lower bandwidth which the index could move 'statistically". It shows the upper limit and lower limit... if the index is near the lower limit - then the "possible" drop is not as great as the "possible" climb to the upper limit. Only good for next day outlook... like whether to buy today or tomorrow.

Depending on the fund your looking at (and how much you're "betting"), it may not really matter that much to burst your brains thinking too much, lighting up a few smokes and maybe popping another guinness or two whether to spend RM500 today or tomorrow when the outcome is maybe a difference of 0.12 % or 60 sens.

(You would have saved 60 sens and more by not thinking/analysing about it and seeking inspiration from the smokes and drinks! )

===========

Xuzen, yes, correct... just putting in my alternate view - to remind that there's no such thing as "one size fits all" strategy for all investors. As said, some of postings are for those in same position as me, 2nd stage with nest egg (plus free switchings!)


===========

For those in 1st stage, doing regular savings out of monthly paychecks, why should you wait for the financial year-end and distribution and lower NAV price?

If say, you are doing monthly investment (DDI or whatever) for a period of 5 or more years, what's the difference buying this week or the next week or at the end of the month?

Let's put it this way - the monthly investment is 1/60th or 1.67% of the total investment (in 5 years). How much do you think the NAV price should drop and affect the 1.67% and in turn, critically jeopardised the whole investment?


===========

Pink, am not a student of Sun Tzu.

Just common sense like not going out to the sea when dark clouds are forming in the sky.


Cheers, happy investing!

=============

P.S. By the way, the NAV price drop after distribution is an "artificial" drop. It does not means that the fund has dropped in value, nor does it means that the fund has become cheaper to buy. PLEASE READ THIS AGAIN until you really understand what I'm saying... it is a very important fundamental fact that every investors should know, not to be brush off or be dismissed... ask for clarification if you still don't understand.


This post has been edited by j.passing.by: Mar 10 2013, 04:58 PM

Got at least 3 good reasons; but I rather bash Public Mutual.

ok, I'll reveal just one reason; otherwise PM will get big headed and will also derail personal campaign against them to reduce their high service charge.

PM is BIG.

I looked into another outside fund & got really worried. That fund is about 1/10th of a small PM fund, and had 6 unitholders at the top end holding about 25% of the whole fund.

What if 4 of them are close friends and meet regularly at the majong table; and all 4 pull out at the same time?
Would the fund bungkus?

Allow me to provide some supporting facts... on how MANY got burnt.

PCSF was launched in mid 2007. In the 2009 financial report:
Total unitholders = 162,417
Highest NAV per unit = 0.1969 (2008 is 0.2979)
Lowest NAV per unit = 0.1102 (2008 is 0.1825)
Total NAV (MYR'000) = 2,000,110 (2008 - 1,628,167)

July 2012 report:
Total unitholders = 98,996
Total NAV (MYR’000) 785,797

Performance to-date is negative 31.2%.

(Told you PM is BIG - even their losing fund is over 700 million in ringgit value. A typical non-PM fund is less than 30 mill.)


... I got more blur after reading them!

missed yesterday 'freak' dip; but lucky didn't get spook and jump.

zero potential; on CNBC this morning, someone (a invited CEO of fund house) commented that the growth in China do not necessary translate to gains in the stock market - his words "...put in $100,000 get back $80,0000".

Not sure what analysis you need to make a decision.

Me, very simple - bet on the fastest horse in the stable.

I believed all the past comments (since I joined this forum mid of last year) and shared experiences so far in this forum is more than sufficient to decide which route to take...

I was in same boat as you... it is a matter of 'hard work' to dig oneself out of a deep hole... keep tracking & monitoring ALL the funds regularly.

Example, there was a dip in the market yesterday... see all those red figures in today's prices? Do you know which ones have the biggest drop?

Here's the bottom 4:
18/3/2013 PUBLIC FAR-EAST PROPERTY & RESORTS FUND PFEPRF 0.3339 -0.0048 -1.42%
18/3/2013 PUBLIC CHINA ITTIKAL FUND PCIF 0.1733 -0.0026 -1.48%
18/3/2013 PUBLIC CHINA SELECT FUND PCSF 0.1580 -0.0024 -1.50%
18/3/2013 PUBLIC CHINA TITANS FUND PCTF 0.2145 -0.0034 -1.56%

(Let's see which one will bounce back today.)

If you're holding all 4 funds since 31 Dec 2012, do you know which one is in deep shit?

Following is their year-to-date gains, respectively: 13.28%, -4.43%, -0.74%, -2.20%


How will they perform from today onwards? Your guess is as good as mine, and as good as any experts - we don't have a crystal ball to see the future.

Maybe forming our own personal insight gained by reading widely, past experiences, etc. in making our own fundamental judgement would help in our decision.

What I read so far (and what I believed is true) is that this year should be as good as or better than 2012. And we're right smack in the middle of the region that's supposed to be stable and steady growth... so don't have to look too far; just read regional news to keep abreast of what's going on.

Cheers.... happy investing!

P.S. Time is money. I'm now looking at multi-month, not multi-year periods in switching horses.

The Cyprus issue, which is still going on, is that if you have money in their banks, you could be taxed 10%. So you see people running to the ATMs during the weekend till the ATMs dried out. So to stop the bank rush, all the banks are closed till Thursday while the cabinet is debating whether to proceed with the tax or not.

So brain dead this proposal to steal money from people who has money in banks. One reason is that Russian mafia has tons of money in the Cyprus banks...

And they said M'sians "lack of grey cells" in the brain when Bank Negara stopped ringgit from being traded during the Asian financial crisis.

This is in reply to a private message on what funds to enter at the moment... guess it is better to reply in open forum for the benefit of all.

As to what funds to recommend, I think the answer was given in the recent posts... that 'quick & dirty' short-list of funds; and that not all horses are suitable for all riders.

Though I stated that my option is "betting on the fastest horse", this is only partially true, as I would picked the 2nd or 3rd fastest horses - more compatible to my riding skill (ie. I am conservative and nervous investor - a lesson learned when I made all the wrong moves when holding a volatile fund like Public Natural Resources.)

Some of the fastest horses, have been mentioned before... maybe we should give a brief on the top horse - Indonesia Select.

Indonesia Select Fund had clocked 8.79% in Feb, 2.55% so far this month. Its run record in Jan is a bit tardy, 4.64% with a couple of weeks in red. In the red last week, but coming back strong this week.

How will it run the next several weeks? Should be good... especially if the timing is good and enter when there's a dip.

Cheers... and happy punting.

Betting guru signing off.

PS. Australia horse - going was strong in Jan and tapering down... negative 2.58% this week... time to place bet?... hold on Oz is facing election just like us... personally, would rather bet on local horse; Najib going strong with thanks to tailwind from the sulu sea.

edit: correction: should be tailwind, not headwind.

This post has been edited by j.passing.by: Mar 21 2013, 04:32 PM