Down, perhaps...

watchout, it seems similar to that of blue or orange direction.

next week start new trade.this week ok la abit.next week waiting gj and gold turning point.

some Elliott wave, Fibonacci and time length on gold.long term.
credit to GoldWave

This post has been edited by boyvai: Mar 29 2012, 10:11 PM

hi guys ~ newbie here ! nice to meet u all ~ hope to learn thing from u all

hmm... This is just a fun analysis. This is not a trade advice or tips. Your actions are your own risk.

Yesterday's close had a rather strong buyers for Eur/Usd. In fact, the formation from 27th to 29th march(red circle) mimics that of the formation from 20th to 22nd March(yellow circle). From here, i'd say that today may be an upside day.

But if I draw the long term(red line) and medium term(yellow line) trend lines, today we're practically at the tip of a triangle.

From the graph of Eur/Jpy, it looks as if it could complete a double top yesterday, in which it did, but it did not extend the drop to go past through the midline of low of 22nd March. It could go up to from a triple top/head&shoulder instead, knowing how the BOJ might intervene to weaken the Yen.

If the Eur/Jpy chooses the triple top, then we might see an upwards direction today for Eur/Usd resembling that of 23rd of March.

On the news side, we have:-

German Retails Sales(MoM) at 2pm Msia time.
French Consumer Spending(MoM) at 2.45pm
Eurozone CPI(YoY) at 5pm
US Personal Spending(MoM), Core Personal Consumption Expenditure(MoM) at 8.30pm
Chicago Purchasing Managers' index at 9.45pm, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 9.55pm

Quite a mix of news. Perhaps a clearer direction might show itself at around 8.30pm where we are also very tight within the tip of the triangle.


Where do you think the graph will go?

All the best everyone





This post has been edited by dillmac: Mar 30 2012, 09:09 AM

Hello guys, is Fxopen.com same as fxopen.my? this 2 website kind of confusing me as all the things in both website is the same.

poks, how ur trade?....my gold triggered at 1650 yesterday....i sell til 1652 then byy back order on 1650....all kena....feeling so lucky....sumore dun even hav chance to online yesterday after my post....now onli saw it...not waiting til 1700 adi, close my trade 1668 for today....good luck every1....hav fun n enioy the weekend!

arghhh.. no wonder why EJ not bring up the bear

although Trend Index were Slightly Bullish , but the overbought/oversold Index remains extremely oversold

let see next week how it goes ..i'm currently hold more than -200 pips ..

the D1 chart already shown bear trend ..but the news on German retail paused me abit ..damned

EJ going up on my point of view?
check weekly and monthly.

This post has been edited by boyvai: Apr 1 2012, 05:41 PM

This is just a fun analysis. This is not a trade advice or tips. Your actions are your own risk.

So it was a very tight trading range for Eur/Usd today as I have mentioned in my previous post that we're at the tip of a triangle.

hmm... This coming Monday may be something big. It may also be a very choppy market.

On Monday (2 April 2012), we have news of :

French Manufacturing PMI at 3.50pm Malaysia time
German Manufacturing PMI at 3.53pm
Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate at 4pm
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 3.58pm
Great Britain Manufacturing PMI at 4.28pm
Eurozone Unemployment Rate at 5pm
US ISM Manufacturing Prices at 10pm
US ISM Manufacturing Index at 10pm
US Construction Spending(MoM) at 10pm

Some scenarios,

For Eur/Usd, I suppose there are only 2 possible directions on Monday. Since we're already at the very tip of the triangle. The first scenario is for the graph to retrace downwards to touch any of the close fibonacci lines(Blue arrow) or even just the support area(Blue line), then it will go up to break the highest top of the week at 1.3385 to set up the bullish tone. If this happens, it mimics very closely to the movement on 26th March(Blue circle).

where else, should it unsuccessfully break that 1.3385 level, it might have a drop down below to form a double top(Red arrow), thus setting the bearish tone. We might see some great pips here.

However, I think it is also important to look at how the Eur/Jpy is performing for that bullish or bearish tone of Eur/Usd.

If you look at the Eur/Jpy graph, it has been in a trading range since 19th March. It could also be a decisive day for the Eur/Jpy. Should it break that 111.42(blue arrow), then that could lean towards the bull for the Eur/Usd.

Else, should it rebound to from that 111.42 level, it may very well form a triple top/head & shoulder(red arrow) and a possibility to drop below neckline. But, to consider that the Yen is subjected to the BOJ intervention, it can also still be trading within range(orange arrow).


Then, all the directions are also subjected to news. Since there is a number of news from various Eurozone nations, a mix data may be collected. A direction may be set here, but I suppose it will be very choppy prior to that. Later in the day, the US data may either strengthen the direction set during London open, or it may cause a retracement from the direction set during London open.

Whatever it is, you should be wary this Monday. Should a strong direction be set this monday, it may very well continue for some days for the week.




This post has been edited by dillmac: Mar 31 2012, 05:13 AM

Thanks for pointing that out boyvai! Yeah, it could very well test that resistant line(Blue line). Something I should consider in my fun analysis



This post has been edited by dillmac: Mar 31 2012, 05:19 AM

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just came back from out town...
I've set my buy order but not hit.. anyway my audusd was hit & closed early today after the big open gap.. not bad
now i'm just hanging around waiting for good setup ...
gold sure looks good to buy...

** morning gap filled.. now moving up...
** not bad
** oppss.. down again... will check night time... not worth to trade...

This post has been edited by poks: Apr 2 2012, 01:44 PM

from my point of view, gold might be going down stil....bottom line not sure yet....but big possible it will go down.....hanging in the middle now....not realli good to put in any trade.....wait n seee.....

ohh.. yah meh?
went long already 1663.xx ...

poks, im not sure...but stil 50-50....early in the morning i shorted at 1668....then close it at 1664 ( the time i posted here previously)

im thinking to buy if it reached 1663...but very small SL.... nothing below 1659...

good luck!

1663 just nice for me & my setup.......
400pips SL... not bad...
got to drive through traffic again... maybe be i should open trading office soon at home. lol..

hahaha...trading office, i got think of this before....somehow if one day its give me good positive trading skill for a period, then i will do this for my own...haha

Elliott Wave Count On Gold tf4
probably price will down to complete either expanding triangle or corrective wave (channel).



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