Second after Stockerzzz! haha. I was a little bit late to be after Kevler. haha.

Alright! EuD went lower. My next level to watch is a break lower of 1.2955 which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 16 January low and 29 February high.

Looking at nearest support at 1.3006 and 1.2974 as a precaution, just in case it turn upwards.




I'm a little bit confused with the timing now. Did you guys had any time zone changes recently on your trading platform?

This post has been edited by dillmac: Mar 15 2012, 12:05 AM

haha, I've noticed that. And why is that? Is it because of its current volatility that people are now trading it? I'm still cautious on trading gold. There were times where I trade small lots of gold, but then it was so volatile, it affected my margin. Also due to my bad money management that time. haha. Right now i'm practising my currency trade. Slow and steady

Eur/Jpy forming a double top on daily chart. I'm looking at EuD to break that 1.3118 as first resistant and 1.3130 as second resistant for a possible upwards rally.

However, with US data of CPI coming in at 8.30pm Malaysian time, Industrial Production & Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment index at around 9pm++ and analysts forecasting a positive results coupled with risk off friday, we could possibly see a rise in US dollar strength.

Could we then, break that 1.3003 level today and later 1.2976? If so, next week might be another bearish week.


All the best everyone

This post has been edited by dillmac: Mar 16 2012, 03:27 PM

Oh my, everytime I click a page around here, there will at least be something related to GVF. Maybe this GVF person have achieved world domination by some of you guys promoting/asking it on every single page, haha.

Isn't there an old saying, if it's too good to be true, it probably is.

Is your friends making green pips everytime with it? If they are, then just keep accumulating those pips(by following the Xnalytics education) and make back whatever capital that was locked in and break even, thereafter pure profit.

If it works, it works. If you have signals calculating for you to enter and exit and make profits, and it works, then go ahead. Manual trading is mentally depressing, for me at least. But I hope and believe that this part of depression and constant emotional bombardment will help reduce my adrenaline when trading, which is working by me feeling more relaxed when trading.

Right now i'm in an unprofitable stage of trades, but slowly, I'm beginning to understand how things goes. But I feel that there is something that is missing and I needed to learn that.



EuD

EuD looks to present a hanging man/hammer at current time of writing on the daily chart. I suppose a short term bear might occur. But i'm looking at the 1.3260 level as a resistant to break for the graph to go any higher.

Why is the Fed's Chairman giving another speech today? 2 days in a row. Is there a page where we can see his speeches live?

Bernanke's live speech at C-Span3

http://www.c-span.org/Live-Video/C-SPAN3/

It is on now, both Bernanke & Tim Geithner.

Also US housing data coming in at 10pm Malaysia time.

I was wondering, could we apply value investing principle on currency as how it is being applied to stocks?

Would it be worth while? Or is the macro climate for currency too complicated, unlike businesses where you have intrinsic values.

If value investing could be applied, for the pair of Eur/Usd, which country is more valuable? If so, why? Is there any fixed calculations or formula where you can look up to?

Bernanke is giving speech again tonight/early morning at 12.45am

That's 3 days in a row. I know what I have to do, stay away from trade before, during & after his speech.

His speeches ain't giving good trades for me, haha.



All the best everyone

This post has been edited by dillmac: Mar 22 2012, 05:09 PM

For those looking forward for Ben Bernanke's speech(lecture), the live streaming will be at http://www.ustream.tv/federalreserve at 00:45 Malaysia time.

This post has been edited by dillmac: Mar 22 2012, 08:53 PM

Canadian core CPI(MoM) later today at 7pm Malaysia time and US new home sales data at 10pm Malaysia time.

If anyone could help enlighten me this on this matter. What was it that trigger that sudden rise at about 3pm Malaysia time today for Eur/Dollar?

I'm quite baffled, there was no news whatsoever, yet a hundred pip rise above. Was it manipulation? Was it based on past three days daily spinning top chart? What was it that I missed out?

I got burned badly during that trade and I'm wondering how it could shot up.

How do you see the dollar index?

Edited :-

how lazy of me to ask that question, haha. well I found here on fxstreet :

"The USD Index measures the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK"


If that statement is so, correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't it meant that the current USD index is only reflected after the USD and its various pairs have done its movement? Then this wouldn't be the explanation for that 3pm rise would it?

This post has been edited by dillmac: Mar 24 2012, 12:18 AM

What I meant is,

since you said that the rise in Eur/Dollar at 3pm was caused by a drop in dollar index, but according to the statement by http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/ , they said that the Dollar Index is "The USD Index measures the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK".


What that statement explain is that you can only get the Dollar Index after calculating of the performances of various USD pairs(Eur/Usd, Usd/Jpy).


Your theory is that the rise of Eur/Usd at 3pm was caused by the dollar index, but the statement from fxstreet said otherwise(that the USD Index is formed from the collective calculations of various USD pairs).


To make it more simple,

according to you - USD Index show first, then currency pair of Eur/Usd follows the index.

according to fxstreet - Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, etc.. performs first, then you get the Dollar Index.




If I follow fxstreet, then there is something else that was pushing the Eur/Usd pairs up. There was no economic news negative for the US or news positive for Eurozone. Then, what was it?

This post has been edited by dillmac: Mar 24 2012, 12:43 AM

Well, I guess you're right that many factors affect the graph. I still feel that that 3pm rise was market manipulation, haha, you know how these banks know about traders' stop loss.

If you're trading gold, I'm not sure if it's alright for you to refer to the dollar index? Maybe it's best for you to compare gold prices with Aud/Usd. Like Poks said before in V9 that since Australia is one of the major exporter of gold, hence, it's currency value will accompany the gold price and vice versa.

This post has been edited by dillmac: Mar 24 2012, 01:29 AM

Eur/Jpy looks like forming a double top on daily chart. A possible drop for EuD after gaining close to 200 pips yesterday?

and there goes the drop!

Apparently, according to the bloomberg news I watched today, analyst said that investors are viewing Bernanke's speech yesterday as a possible of QE3. That explains the rise in Eur/Usd yesterday.

But it is not so clear when QE3 could come. Within these few months, will we see a continuing rise of Eur/Usd or drop or sideways?

Bernanke is giving is 3rd lecture today, you can view it live at http://www.ustream.tv/federalreserve at 12.45am.

could it be the new mt4 update of build 416 & 418? There were some people who complained that the latest mt4 update caused their EA to stop working.

This is not a trading advice or tips. I'm doing this for fun while waiting for the London open.

EuD at 4h chart seems like forming a double top. the second top would be around 1.336x-1.337x. Then it will drop below to around 1.328x and a possible lower drop into the 1.325x-ish. tada, we have a double top.

[U][/U]


On the other hand, at time of posting, Eur/Jpy is already on it's way to form a double top.... but I'm still watchful on BOJ's intervention. Felt like there was intervention yesterday.




hmm... if I want my EuD double top to form.... maybe Eur/Jpy need to make a triple top/head&shoulders...

What do you guys think of my for fun analysis? Make sense or? This is of course with no news taken into consideration.


EDITED:-

My bad for not posting a picture of the graphs. When I posted this post, the graphs was at the candlestick that I circled with the red circle.

I based my analyst on fibonacci retracement and also channels and support resistant level.

So far, as you can see at the pictures attached below, the EuD is forming the second top, while the Eur/Jpy is forming the third top/second shoulder. I've entered a very small sell lot at 1.3347 just to test it out.

I'm a bit cautious on the completion of the double & triple top formations as there will be news on Germany CPI(MoM), US Core Durable Goods Orders(MoM), and Durable Goods Orders(MoM)at 8.30pm Malaysia time. The Germany CPI is a tentative result according to forexpros but there was no time indicated. Meanwhile, according to myfxbook, the time is same of that of the US Core Durable Goods Orders.

There could be mixed results.... but from your experience, if there are mixed results, will the graph goes both ways or will it follow an analytical direction?



This post has been edited by dillmac: Mar 28 2012, 07:27 PM