Soon there will be people get it right.

But the scenario can be

x + 0 year - 400K (expensive, predict fall), but didn't materialise then
X + 2 year - 500k (even more expensive, predict fall), but still not happen), then
x + 3 year - 600k (crazy price, many more people cannot afford, predict all, still not happen, then
x + 5 year - 800k (ridiculous price, predict fall, bang finally materialise), then
x + 6 year - 750K, hurray, get the prediction right.

But the person predict the fall, what he/she get?
Get cheaper properties?
Even drop 20%, still way more expensive than first get one.
Drop 50%, same with the person first get one.
Just like this thread from V1, until now.
There is no rewards for over pessimistic.

Don't get me wrong, I am not super optimistic as well.

There is no such thing of rumour say price up x% or down y%.

It is only what happened and is happening out there, aka the transaction done out there.

The more people talk about price can crash, the chance of it crash become low.

The crash often come when most people cannot forsee it.

This is always repeating and proven.

Because when more people wary or cautious crash may around the corner, it means those people are out of excessive speculation.
It is always excessive speculation that causing the bubble and lead to crash afterwards.

I will deeply worry if no one talk about crash, and everyone said BBB.

What so fear about crash?
Stock market, property market did crash many many time before, not the first time already.
People talk about crash until bored already, so mark your word so that become Malaysia version of Peter Schiff or Dr. Doom?
As said before or what I posted earlier, one day, you will be right.

When subprime exploded and financial crisis unfolded, people said "died liao", going to be deflation and economy recession for many many years,
yet after massive stimulus package around the globe, for the period form 2009-2010-early 2011, factories order flooding in until not enough man-power to cope the order.
The one believed the dooms day coming during the crisis, retrench all the workers, sell factories, due to fear of dooms day, were the biggest losers.

This is half story tell only.

Bank won't lend simply one, they either need one to prove the income or has rich guarantor to guarantee the loan, only then loan will be approved/released.

If can simply loan, everyone also want to loan.

The main culprit is speculators or flippers, they are the root, or reason, why price can be easily pushed up.
Developers alone cannot do anything if not those speculators/flippers always "sapu" new launched out there.

Revenge?
When market crash time, just like forumer said, who run first?
What you can benefit from market crash?
Buy cheaper properties?
Tomorrow even cheaper, why buy today?
Next week even cheaper, why buy tomorrow?
Next month even cheaper, why buy next week?
Next year even cheaper, why buy next month?

Market turn time, now expensive than yesterday, not worth, wait to go down further.
Next month, even higher already, hey last month, just 400k, now 420k, expensive already, wait.
Another 2 months, 450k, start to say majority people cannot afford this price etc.
Cycle continue for waiting game, people cannot afford, ridiculous price etc.
Wait next turn of crash...

Forever wait...

LOL, , where got cheap and can celebrate?

The first or major drop always come from those highly speculated or previous high flying one, even drop 10-20% from current level, also higher than 2008-2009 pricing.
Some need to drop 30-40% before back to 2007-2008 pricing, can ar?
I don't know, I am not expert, I cannot predict fall or rise.

---

Added on December 28, 2011, 4:45 pmI only know if I cannot afford, doesn't mean others cannot afford.



This post has been edited by cherroy: Dec 28 2011, 04:45 PM

2012 end of world, believe or no believe make little difference one.
Unlike believing dooms day in economy or property market crash, this has significant different consequence due to one's believe/strategy/attitude towards one's wealth aftermath.

For 2012 dooms day/end of world.

1. Believe, scare everyday about dooms day, worry until mind also crazy, if really come, die.
2. No believe, enjoy normal life, if really come, die also.

No different.

It is the other way round.

Foreigners are attracted to come to your city, if your city got good making money opportunity, not got foreigners then do well.

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Added on January 1, 2012, 6:35 pmSince when China is high interest country at 5-6%?
China deposit rate is around 3%, quite similar to here only.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jan 1 2012, 06:35 PM

http://www.hsbc.com.cn/1/2/misc/deposit-rates
http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/06/news/inter..._rate/index.htm


If the deposit rate is 5-6%, people won't complain about negative interest they are getting.

6% is about their lending rate, not deposit rate.
The digital screen show 6% as lending rate?

Please do not bring in other not related to property issue.

This is property talk section.

Ty.

BNM has paused the rate hike, as sign of economy is slowing down.
Even RBA has cut the rate down already, aka 0.5% already, from 4.75% to 4.25%.

I don't see how the interest rate can go up further, if economy is stalling and slowing further.

Unless the economy recovery and growing is good, only then rate can go up, which I don't see it in near future.

I don't know why people keep on using majority people affordability as reason to say property price is doom.

You don't need majority people can afford,
you just need enough people that can afford it.

Car price here is extra-ordinary expensive, 100k, 200k, 300k also got, which is way beyond majority affordability, but I still see many of those car, and those car dealer is not closing down nor slashing price.

Yes, increase 50% in 3-5 years is unprecedented, and unlikely to repeat.
Doom or storming coming or not, I don't know, I don't have the crystal ball to know, but the uncertainty mentioned is the one current limit the price surge, which is good, without those uncertainty, we might as well as see the price ballooning even higher.
Don't get me wrong, I also view house price should dip/correct after tremendous surge for the past few year.
But I don't agree the majority affordability theory.
As long as there is enough buyers to meet the supply, price stay, as simple as that, the most simple ultimate supply and demand theory.

Got 1k unit 1 million house, if got 1k buyers want to buy, price stay. Whether the rest 20 million people majority cannot afford to buy the 1 million house, it doesn't alter or matter for the price.

Enough or not enough I don't know, I don't have crystal ball as I said.

But price has surged and stay at elevated level, already means previous there are enough buyers. This is strong indicator, there are/were enough buyers, despite 500k or 700k.
But I did not say future will be or not. Not related.
Supply may become more, and buyers may not enough, nobody knows.
Remember the basic supply and demand theory?

While, supply is controlled by developers, once they sense not enough buyers aka slow take up rate, mostly will delay new project, until sometimes when time suit.

Main stream or not, 300k, or 800k, enough buyer or not, I also don't know.

But I know it is not related to majority affordability issue.
Even majority afford, it doesn't they want to buy, if price of property is heading down, just like what happened in US. There are plenty of money, cash, liquidity around, but if people have no confidence, you still see price keep on going down. Just like stock market during crisis.

Yes, there may not enough to absorb all the newly built in the near future or next 2-3 years, price can stagnate or fall slightly, but this has nothing to do whether majority now afford or not afford.
The property market is all about enough buyers that are willing to buy, can buy.

While those own the property doesn't mean they must sell either.
We don't know, some bought and let the house grow grass also have. Some bought condo and paying maintenance each month and let the condo vacant also have.

The actual situation is banks want to lend, just BNM want to impose stricter rule to prevent bubble forming.
GDP is 5% or 3%, both also show positive growth, forget the property price is pegged to GDP growth figure?

Yes, no doubt, it is impossible to see price up 30-50% anymore, highly this year is a correction year.
But don't forget we are along being threaten by inflation, and inflation is the one can support property price.
On one hand, economy slowing down.
On one hand, inflation is everywhere.

One negative, one positive, neutralize.

I can assure 95% will say, wait, price may crash further, a new round of waiting game.
If crash even harder, even more bearish, wait even longer...
No offense.

Deflation?
I don't buy this story on the media.
If said business become slower and less volume/revenue, yes, this is the true picture, but not on the deflation for consumer.

Oil price is staying at elevated level, above USD100, so does copper, silver, gold, even CPO staying comfortable around RM3000.
Look at CPI, PPI number, all point to the inflation especially in emerging countries.
China despite showing lower CPI number, it is still a hot number of 4~5%, just not as severe as previous around 6%.

With central banks across the globe prefer growth over the inflation control, cheap interest, massive QE, I fail to see how can deflation occur.
Price paid by consumers keep on escalating only.
Where is the deflation?
I only know money become smaller, and price only up, no down.

The actual industrial diesel price is around Rm2.60 level.
This is the real price.
Commodities price is not cheap despite media keep on sending fear about Euro debt crisis, recession looming etc.

---

Added on January 20, 2012, 2:39 pmInflation is everywhere, that's why I disagree the deflation part of story.

Labour is hard to get, you may have plenty of unemployed graduate, but factories and sites are facing labour shortage.
For site and renovation work, some already paid RM80-100 per daily wages, still hard to get one.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jan 20 2012, 02:39 PM

It is chain effect.
If, sugar 1kg up 20 cents, then if teh tarik up 10 cents, then people complain to the boss, life is hard, everything expensive, want payrise, if not cannot live, need to quit for another job. So the boss give payrise, then boss feel hard to operate the business with rising labour cost, then want to increase selling price of hardware. Increase selling price of hardware, the developer feel profit being eroded by both hardware and labour cost, then want to increase price of property launched.
The chain effect continue and loop non-stop.

Not interesting at all.
I read enough doom and gloom since the 4Q of 2011 until now, but stock market keep on rising, corporate make even more profit.
Intel just announced decent profit with profit margin >60%, Microsoft beat forecast, McDonald share keep on become higher and higher, and near all time high and continue reporting higher and higher sales each month.

Same with local company and finance stocks keep on reporting good financial result.

Oil price, commodities price all stay at elevated level, oil price has firm footing >USD1000, so does copper price, CPO.

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Added on January 20, 2012, 3:06 pm
1997 RE bubble in Malaysia/Asia?
Sure boh?

Those bought the property during that time compared now already appreciate 200-300% at least.



This post has been edited by cherroy: Jan 20 2012, 03:09 PM