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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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danmooncake
post Nov 27 2012, 01:04 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Nov 27 2012, 10:14 AM)
big 3 team up for Apple, as u can see today the price nearing my projection.
*
Yes indeed.. nice call!

I have not execute the short call side yet.. but got into the wkl short puts (560 P) for now.
Near closing it has lost half its value. Nice!

I'll see tonight if let see if this thing could get to 590-595 (200ma) level its first resistance after being whacked down so hard.
If it shows any signs of weakness, I'll jump over to the short calls side and try to ride it down a little before the weekend.

If it sneaks above 200ma, then 600-619 should present some more resistance for it.



Btw, LVS going to get a nice pop tonight because of the special dividend.. this should get it above the 50ma line ($44.82).
danmooncake
post Nov 27 2012, 08:52 PM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Nov 27 2012, 02:45 PM)
Greetings + G'Day,

Las Vegas Sands(LVS) special dividend of usd 2.75 (about usd 2.26B) to its shareholders
on 18th Dec 2012 (per record on 10th December).

With qrtrly dividends, it will be huge Return Of Investment(ROI).

http://investor.lasvegassands.com/released...eleaseID=723215

Have a great day.
*
Not huge but better now than never, otherwise it goes to taxes starting next year.
Sheldon only pays 15% of his 1.2bln.

Now, it should be AAPL turn! Spc. Divi and stock splits... laugh.gif


danmooncake
post Nov 27 2012, 10:58 PM

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Hey.. what do you know.. AAPL got weak now.
Shorting 'em calls, getting a little premium off. drool.gif

Looking maybe to exit around low 580 or maybe 575-580. brows.gif

Added on November 27, 2012, 11:17 pm580.65...1st. batch exit.

Added on November 28, 2012, 8:40 amExited 2nd batch at closing 584.. didn't dive below 580 as I was hoping.

Back to long side (commons) with short puts spread for this week expiration.







This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 28 2012, 08:40 AM
danmooncake
post Nov 28 2012, 11:34 PM

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Oh frack.. should have continue to hold on to the bear side calls spread yesterday.

Going to see if AAPL can touch 580.. I'll grab some shorts to play along.
But, I need AAPL to hold 560 by Friday. sweat.gif

Added on November 29, 2012, 2:16 amOh.. wait, market bullish again.

Ok.. holding it here. Good. For some reason, after Obama speaks.. it bullish again. Opposite this time. doh.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 29 2012, 02:16 AM
danmooncake
post Nov 30 2012, 08:03 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Nov 30 2012, 04:49 AM)
FB.  rclxm9.gif
*
Oh dang.... nice volume too. Did you get in? drool.gif


Anyway... if you've missed the big move for FB since Monday. Gap up at open above 25 and didn't look back.

But, maybe opportunity for FB proxy -> RENN (China's version of FB).
Looks like it's being squeezed up. 50day resistance test today.. bounced back down.

Watching for 3.35~3.45 buying opportunity, tight stop: 3.25 wink.gif

Added on November 30, 2012, 11:35 pmUpdate:
AAPL Short PUT side holding up well above 560c. This one sure can take all profits by tonight.
Upside still hovering above 585..but below 590

I'll try to get some spare change by selling a few 590 calls here. wink.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 30 2012, 11:36 PM
danmooncake
post Dec 1 2012, 07:29 AM

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QUOTE(theboringguy @ Dec 1 2012, 12:39 AM)
Always envy how you analyze the movement in such accuracy~~~ notworthy.gif
*
No-secret-lah.. just have to continue to watch the price movement, and just trend it.
After a while, one can see the pattern.

Most of the time, TA works well in helping to project what's it's going to be unless in unusual circumstances.
(like sentiments suddenly change. or earnings surprises.) If in error, must bail out quickly otherwise can koyak pretty quick! sweat.gif

Anyway, this week, got nice profits for AAPL. I was a little short on the top side range but Zamans got it right! Nice one!

Anyway, what has worked - Sold PUTs spread (early part of week) and CALLs spread (on the last day) on yet another "hope" to avoid jumping-off-the-cliff rally. All gone to 1c at closing.. so pocket a few K. laugh.gif

Next week.. I think if US congress is still bickering on what to do.. then we can see stocks slide down.
We'll get more shorting opportunities for bears and bulls can go take a nap again. brows.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 1 2012, 07:35 AM
danmooncake
post Dec 4 2012, 07:14 AM

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As expected, US House of Rep fighting with Obama. Bulls retreated and bears are coming out again. . brows.gif
danmooncake
post Dec 4 2012, 09:41 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Dec 4 2012, 07:49 PM)
Online store there is facing in really stiff competition, all engage in price war and 99% of the big online website still losing money.So far there is no clear winner there yet.

China smartphone? Smartphone market still dominated by Apple and Samsung.
But for investment purpose  biggrin.gif , probably choose the sure win stock such as big telco in china. Very attractive price currently.

Yum's brand KFC still have lot of room to grow in China, KFC probably considered for middle class meal there, if the middle class number is catching up, the sales in china will be increase. If you understand how KFC implant their business strategy in china, the franchise choose to localise their menu to suit chinese's taste, personally think KFC win over MCD to capture the market there.

So far what I see the foreign brand still have plenty of room to penetrate like smart phone market, american fast food, fashion retailer, foreign cars...

What I think the kind of business very hard for foreigner to penetrate such as financial institution, hypermarket retailer, some local daily product such as instant noodle etc...

So my personal opinion is depends on which market we talking about.

Just my opinion  tongue.gif
*
Agree. US fast foods still got lots of room to grow in the China as does technology because it keeps changing.
The big boys like Samsung and Apple will do well if they continue to innovate. The emerging market will always want their goods.

As for restaurant market... I wish Malaysia would have a brand also that it can expand (like US KFC, McD, Starbucks).
How about some Nasi Lemak in Shanghai, huh? wink.gif
danmooncake
post Dec 5 2012, 12:28 AM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Dec 4 2012, 10:29 PM)
Too bad we Malaysian don't have such brand currently.
Nasi lemak? Most of my chinese (from china) friend don't really particularly like nasi lemak  sad.gif 
it just kind of try something new for them
*
You may be correct. Maybe because they don't like the spicy ikan bilis or sambal. Too smelly for them. Just like Durian.
But, I love 'em. drool.gif

Added on December 5, 2012, 12:33 am
QUOTE(yok70 @ Dec 5 2012, 12:13 AM)
We actually have Oldtown white coffee starts to invade China market. Is white coffee really Malaysia's unique? I also not sure.  biggrin.gif

Added on December 5, 2012, 12:16 amThese are the two articles I read regarding China market if you can read Chinese.

擁有必勝客（Pizza Hut）和肯德基（KFC）品牌的美國公司，在中國經歷了多年的高速增長，然而由於競爭激烈，加上對快餐的厭倦導致中國消費者失去對炸雞和比薩的胃口，這家美國公司開始在它最大的市場遇到問題。
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/67936

（中國‧北京3日訊）越來越多中國消費者在選購智能手機時選擇本土品牌，而非國際大牌，使三星、蘋果以及其他國際品牌喪失了統治地位，這正值中國智能手機銷量飆升，並有望超過美國成為全球最大的智能手機市場。
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/67941
*
Malaysia coffee business can't compete with the likes of Starbuck and China's own copy cat.. xxxxbuk (homebrew).
Besides, most Mainland Chinese prefer tea house than coffee shop.




This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 5 2012, 12:33 AM
danmooncake
post Dec 5 2012, 07:15 AM

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How do we end up talking food here... LOL! Makes me hungry. laugh.gif

Anyway, market pulling sideways but bias now is down for this week.
SP500 was overbought last week, now need to shed out the excess. Same as AAPL.

Added a bit short term shorts till this Friday. nod.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 5 2012, 07:15 AM
danmooncake
post Dec 6 2012, 12:05 AM

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Just covered my small short for AAPL @ 546.. what a crazy ride. -$30 today. laugh.gif

Let see if it can bounce back up to 555 or not for another round.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 6 2012, 12:05 AM
danmooncake
post Dec 6 2012, 01:36 AM

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AAPL now still got that gap between 530-540... so I think it may attempt to fill it later.
I'm all in cash now.

Death cross imminent for AAPL (50ma going below 200ma soon).

For tonight 550-555 is battle ground. Break out long 556, Break out short 548

The financial news digging out all sorts of reasons:
http://news.yahoo.com/apple-shares-tumble-...51--sector.html

Both Dow and S&P up.. AAPL dropped into the grinder. shakehead.gif

Added on December 6, 2012, 6:06 amWhoa... man. This is worse than when Jobs had died.

AAPL 538.79 -37.05 -6.43%



This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 6 2012, 06:06 AM
danmooncake
post Dec 6 2012, 07:43 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Dec 6 2012, 07:21 AM)
Apple 538, very nice! More show ahead... brows.gif
*
Yeah... laugh.gif

But, it is a pretty dangerous play now. It has retraced more than I would not normally call a healthy pull back..
This isn't a pullback, it's massacre! The volume is almost equal on the reversal day on Nov 16th but this time, it downwards.

In just 3 days... whoosh. All 2-3 weeks of gains are gone. Every rally will be sold into again. nod.gif

AAPL will have tough trying to recapture that $700 by earnings time.



This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 6 2012, 07:46 AM
danmooncake
post Dec 6 2012, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Dec 6 2012, 09:01 AM)
I thought someone say it will be 1000 by that time?  tongue.gif

Anyway, there is a gap to be fill around 530

Lets see what happen next.

Market very choppy nowadays. Hard to predict the trend  sweat.gif
*
Yeah, that gap to 530 is very close. Heck, if AAPL can make a move like this today.. that's easy to fill.
I think it will do more that filling.. could just whoosh down all the way to 520 area and if can't hold, then
it's the last fight for the bulls (505-520).

AAPL recovery chart is broken now .. like the iPhone5 mapping software. laugh.gif


danmooncake
post Dec 6 2012, 08:50 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Dec 6 2012, 06:15 PM)
They are putting all dark force generated by fiscal cliff fear onto Apple....this giant target is too hard to resist.  tongue.gif
*
Watching for possible bounce around 525-528 (when gap gets filled) for AAPL.

LVS -> going ex-divi, -2.75 per share.
danmooncake
post Dec 6 2012, 10:13 PM

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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Dec 6 2012, 09:31 PM)
Catch falling knife?

Better wear thick glove  brows.gif  brows.gif
*
AAPL gap closed...528 at pre-market.. Unbelievable, and bounces back to 530. shocking.gif

I'm not catching it..just watching at sidelines.
Will want to see if 522-528 will hold, if not, then back to 505-528 as double bottom possible play.

AAPL trades by itself now.. disconnected from the broader SP500 and Dow, but Nasdaq is pulled back by this giant.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 6 2012, 10:14 PM
danmooncake
post Dec 6 2012, 11:48 PM

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Looks like another reversal - like Nov 16th - short term bounce.maybe.
I'm in long side.. 530'ish let see if this holds up. Plan to exit some around 549'sh
danmooncake
post Dec 7 2012, 12:04 AM

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KaChing!! Out 548.. good enough... biggrin.gif

16 pts ride... rclxm9.gif

danmooncake
post Dec 7 2012, 01:00 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Dec 7 2012, 12:16 AM)
rclxms.gif
*
Just we thought it will die, it reverses.. so go with the flow. It's like Nov 16th.
Just BUY on dips now. Strong bullish volume detected. drool.gif
danmooncake
post Dec 7 2012, 02:11 AM

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Keep a tight stop if you wanna play. This thing is indeed very volatile.
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