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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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danmooncake
post Nov 8 2012, 01:19 AM

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yup... Draghi comment this morning drove down stocks even more.
If SP500 can't hold 1380.. that's it.. SHORT all the way.
danmooncake
post Nov 8 2012, 05:29 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Nov 8 2012, 02:15 AM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/is-appl...to-an-end.html/

Quite true of what he said....
World middle class population is surely increasing in the next decade. Question is, if Apple really turns into an just average brand instead of current premium brand, can its profit still surging over the years? Since other companies are basically sharing market shares from Android and the still small of windows platform, when Apple has no competitors on iOS platform.
And I've no idea if the Apple TV can fight with Samsung TV.
hmm.gif
*
I think PD may come out and defend his stance on AAPL later... laugh.gif
Anyway, we got serious technical damage today.. it may take a while to repair AAPL (Close 558.00 -22.20 3.83%) - stucked in bear land.

General index SP500 closing below 1400, Dow below 13000 also not good but great for bears.
So, I expect more selling to come.
If you're longs, should stay aside and let this play out first and take opportunity to sell every rally from here. nod.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 8 2012, 05:33 AM
danmooncake
post Nov 8 2012, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Nov 8 2012, 09:12 AM)
Greetings + G'Day,

  DJIA skydive 313pts today due to fiscal cliff fear which expects to push USA
to recession by -0.5% of the GDP in 1st half of year 2013. DJIA and S&P500
closed below 13000pts and 1400pts respectively.VIX jumps to 19pts.

CASH will be KING again in 1st half of year 2013.
Monitor and wait until FEAR FACTOR VIX reaches 30pts and above, to make
wise + prudent decision-making by putting yr $$ to work hard 4 u.

VIX will shoot up + market will skyfall if major rating agencies downgrade usa credit debt grade.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CBOE_Volatility_Index
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_cliff_debate

Have a great day.
*
LOL.. I heard various spins on this.. the financial news just look for reasons why the market tanks.

The fiscal cliff fear isn't the only cause because it's been well known way ahead of time - infact months ago..
now only sell of meh?

The stories are..we got all sorts of combo events...overnight Obama wins, then Romney's friendly hedge funds SELL to punish the financial systems..Draghi comments that said Euro Zone will remain "weak" in near term - , AAPL fell into bear territory (564)..another technical sell because some index funds hold 5~10% of AAPL.
2nd storm is coming to US east coasts again.. now we got financial storm. doh.gif

Anyway... I think for all dip buyers out there.. just be careful, we could be in the process of a major pull back. Uptrend will become downtrend in a few more sessions if this doesn't bounce. Watch for that 200MA line..(line in sand).

Good luck to all. whistling.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 8 2012, 10:14 AM
danmooncake
post Nov 8 2012, 08:33 PM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Nov 8 2012, 03:57 PM)
Greetings + G'Day,
What are the best USA stocks for investors to pick?  Dividend?  Price?
Low P/E Ratio,  PEG ??  Good Cashflow?  Share Split 2 for 1 ...etc..etc

AAPL, C,  BAC, GE, KO, MCD, MSFT, IBM, INTC, NBG, CRBC,
ETFC, S, SVU, THC, LSI
..etc..etc

Have a great day.
*
QUOTE(netmask8 @ Nov 8 2012, 10:50 AM)
Cash will be KING.. Pick + Invest wisely .. My Pick = LVS, XL, LYG, MGM, BZH + CRBC
*
G'day,

Best? laugh.gif It's all relative.
What's best today may not be best tomorrow.. eg. look at AAPL. 6 months ago.. it was the Best! Everyone wants it. Now, it is a Pest! Everyone wants out! laugh.gif

Also, looks like you already got your picks above.. whistling.gif

When you picks stocks.. ask yourself "What's my their time horizons, my expected returns and my risk tolerance .."
I not sure if you're in just for trading, or really investing (like long term cap gains, expecting divis..) or something else.

For investing, you may want to spread your risk and choose each stocks from diff. sector (aka. diversifying).
Below, you got two pairs that are too close.

LVS and MGM - the same gaming sector (pick one or the other)
XL and CRVC - Ins & banks...close enough.

Try pick 5.. all from different sectors. wink.gif


Added on November 8, 2012, 9:57 pm
AAPL is trapped below the bear line (-20% from peak) tonight.. it needs to crawl itself out from 565.. otherwise,
next sub floor is at 525-535.


Added on November 8, 2012, 11:12 pmAAPL digs another $-7 hole to $548.. will we see $545 today?... $535 by Friday..watching capitulation? hmm.gif


Added on November 8, 2012, 11:23 pmUpdate: AAPL 545 $-12 ...

Raw AAPL being squeezed into AAPL can juice..

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 8 2012, 11:23 PM
danmooncake
post Nov 8 2012, 11:32 PM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Nov 8 2012, 11:24 PM)
Greetings + Gday,

    LVS + MGM are my major portfolios as they respresent 60% of my holdings since March 2009.

I believed, in any gaming sector(casino), ppls always greedy and wanna to try their luck to earn fast money.
Both companies got its control subsidiary companies in Macau (listed in HKSE) and with great (and strong) China's
economy power house(2nd in the world), Chinese ppls also wealthy and will visit Macau to play roulette/black jack ..etc..etc.

*
Only one comment. I see "risky" zone here.. 60% in one similar sector. laugh.gif

danmooncake
post Nov 9 2012, 12:30 AM

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QUOTE(bryan5073 @ Nov 9 2012, 12:17 AM)
DJIA dropped almost 30%...
Will drop more?
Will continue affect KLCI tmro???  hmm.gif
*
Are u kidding? shocking.gif
danmooncake
post Nov 9 2012, 01:12 AM

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QUOTE(bryan5073 @ Nov 9 2012, 12:59 AM)
30 points SORRY MY BAD!  blush.gif
*
Phew!! sweat.gif I momentarily stop breathing..when I saw your post.

Yes, we drifting down.. going to see if we can test 200MA..soon (S&P 1380) maybe just pierced thru it.

Shorts getting rewarded again today. Longs getting punishment again.

Short term, we're oversold.. should get a little bounce soon before the bigger dip.


Added on November 9, 2012, 1:23 amKaching! Just did a scalping day for AAPL..following the 20ma bear line.

Bought 5 AAPL 555 WKL PUT @ 8.75 when AAPL at 551
Sold 5 AAPL 555 WKL PUT @ 10.45 when AAPL at 547

Almost $1k in less than 10mins. laugh.gif

Now.. staying on fence and watching again.


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 9 2012, 01:31 AM
danmooncake
post Nov 9 2012, 04:13 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Nov 9 2012, 03:42 AM)
Apple is still weak. RSI at 20 range now....i think reaching 10 range also no problem, it's previous May low was at this range. 500 on the way.  hmm.gif
Another emerging tech play is also coming down...Google.  biggrin.gif
*
Hmm.. what timerange you're looking at.. my RSI showing at 24.86... not 20 yet.
But, it is close enough.


Added on November 9, 2012, 4:44 am$540 broke.. in PUTs again.

I'll ride this down and see where the bears will take it...


Added on November 9, 2012, 4:48 amOut 535.50.. scalped 4.5pts here. sweat.gif


Added on November 9, 2012, 5:20 am
537.75 -20.25 (-3.63%)

The bears have ground this Apple from slices to pulp...perhaps making another dish. shakehead.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 9 2012, 05:39 AM
danmooncake
post Nov 9 2012, 08:37 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Nov 9 2012, 02:36 PM)
Let's see how apple will compete in world's biggest population countries, a combined population of 3.3 billion out of 6.9 billion earth population.
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

*
Hey Z!

Wow.. that's interesting stats.. thanks for sharing.

It's interesting isn't it seeing how AAPL now being beaten down to pulp here.. just over a month ago,
we heard of lot of cries of buying at the 600's~620s (around 50ma line) for bounce - that failed,
then just this week at 575-580 is the AAPL bulls last chance to stay their ground.. they gave it up last Friday.
The general market rally on Monday only gave chance for AAPL holders to sell into the rally. Wednesday and Thursday.. huge institutions are unloading some of their long term positions - uncertainty due to fiscal situation and unknown tax rate beyond 2012 - it's better now or never. So, it is what it is now.

Right now, I'm looking for the opportunity to go long side (for quick rally bounce) but not sure how deep they're going to bury this, seeing SP500 lost the 200ma, this is certainly bears playground. smile.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 9 2012, 08:40 PM
danmooncake
post Nov 9 2012, 10:14 PM

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Institutional and big holders are selling gains that are 10%-15% above
their initial buys to take money off the table.

The uncertainty tax rate to spike above 20% definitely holding the bulls by the balls now.

Obama to address Fiscal issue later tonight.

I will be watching AAPL (more pounding), $SPX (under 200ma) and $VIX (see if there is pop above 19) today,
$USD (bullish).. bears are still in control.


Added on November 9, 2012, 10:17 pm
QUOTE(Myoswee @ Nov 9 2012, 10:06 PM)
Any aapl chart tonight? tongue.gif
*
No not yet. The chart is broken.. it went off the cliff..

I need at least a bounce to be able to trace the price properly.
Should be soon.. let see. wink.gif


Added on November 9, 2012, 11:27 pmAAPL finally got a bounce from the lows 533.72... target exit area 548-549. biggrin.gif


Added on November 9, 2012, 11:50 pm548... cabut here..
will wait to see if it can break out 550 or not.


Added on November 10, 2012, 2:00 am550 break out... sneak in long side play for Nov calls.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 10 2012, 02:00 AM
danmooncake
post Nov 10 2012, 05:56 AM

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Obama speaks... market tanks! doh.gif

I'm out again... staying in cash for the weekend. Much safer.. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 10 2012, 09:09 AM
danmooncake
post Nov 12 2012, 11:41 PM

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Sideway trading tonight....

AAPL forming a base..and support here (535-545..)
LVS (42.50 ~ 43.50) .. same.

Watching $SPX (SPY).. bulls going to try to work hard to take back 200MA here (1382 or higher).
If not, we're going down to 1365 for support soon.

Maybe need to sell some options to take advantage of weekly expiration.. hmm.gif


danmooncake
post Nov 13 2012, 03:34 AM

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Uh uh... rumor has it that Samsung has increase 20% in price for its chip to Apple.. therefore it could hurt AAPL profit margin.
Another hit at AAPL coming.. whistling.gif
danmooncake
post Nov 13 2012, 08:32 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Nov 13 2012, 03:41 AM)
Ya, just read that news too. Looks like hard to hold.
Crazy! iphone 5S coming? ipad 5 also soon early next year?  rclxub.gif

*
Not just that (competition)... but the product cycles are getting shorter and shorter... then, the newer product will cannibalize the the older products sales eventho it is vaporware.

People just put off buying because they know newer and better ones will be here soon.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 13 2012, 08:33 AM
danmooncake
post Nov 13 2012, 10:14 PM

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There you go.. home builder Home Depot scored again this quarter. rclxms.gif

HD (HomeDepot) - earnings call
Beat EPS: 74c vs 70c estimate
Beat Revenue: 18.1 bln vs 17.9 bln

Premarket: 62.22 +1.06 +1.73%

HD plans to do shares buyback (up to $700 mln) and raised outlook.

A sign that US housing has bottomed and recovering.

Also, the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy will definitely help them to boost more revenue for
next Q because of rebuilding.

Disclosure: My family owes HD but I am NOT recommending anyone buying it here at this level.

Tonight, watching $SPX (see if 1365 support can be tested), AAPL (if 535 can hold or not), LVS (same range: 42.50-43.50)


danmooncake
post Nov 13 2012, 10:58 PM

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--
Price Alert for VOD -
VODAFONE GROUP PLC - Sale price dropped to 25.5000
Last Sale: 25.50 at 09:30:42
Price when alert was set: 26.9102 on 11/05/12 20:54:55 EST
--
Negative:
Revenue down 7.4% to £21.78 billion (US 34.87 bln) versus £23.52 billion (US 37.34) for 1st half.
VOD got beaten down because of write down £5.9 billion (US9.4 bln) for Spain and Italy.

Positive:
VZ expected pay VOD £2.4 billion (US 3.81 bln) in dividends.
£1.5 billion (US 2.38bln) shares buyback to commence.

I'm hoping VOD will get a buyout from VZ. This will help boost VOD later.

VOD got 7.5% divi.., so I plan to get some VOD later at this level. wink.gif


Added on November 13, 2012, 11:06 pm
QUOTE(yok70 @ Nov 13 2012, 10:54 PM)
FB's fall got limit or not? Current price PE 103x? On this PE, I cannot predict its bottom. Maybe....1.90?  sweat.gif
*
Dunno lah.. Difficult to gauge FB since it only got 1 Q of earnings to study. So, I'm not touching it.
Also, the lock up period for FB is due this month, so more insider sales of shares will commence.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 13 2012, 11:07 PM
danmooncake
post Nov 13 2012, 11:51 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Nov 13 2012, 11:19 PM)
didn't know you also play dividend stock.
just curious, what percentage on your total capital invested on holding dividend stocks plan for long term?

ya, read that 800m coming soon, then another 100+m next month. After that, only left small amount for next year.  biggrin.gif
*
The divi type of stocks (low volatility, beta < 1%) not really for not trading but for the longer term portfolio (keeping 1 year or more) - I look for the stocks with divi plays, must be at least 2%-3% or higher than what bank interest rates pays.










danmooncake
post Nov 14 2012, 12:50 AM

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SP500 went from -5 to +5, Dow went from -60 to +60, AAPL went from low 536 to high 548..($11-$12) spread.

Typical MM trapping bears at open.. luring bulls to keep buying... laugh.gif




danmooncake
post Nov 14 2012, 01:32 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Nov 14 2012, 01:08 AM)
wondering trapping bulls or bears? only time will tell.  tongue.gif
*
It's actually Both..

When bears jump in at the lows, they move it up.
When bulls jump in at the top on fake break out, they move it down.

They let both the calls and puts options expire worthless by holding it here by Friday. brows.gif



danmooncake
post Nov 14 2012, 11:00 AM

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I just read that AAPL just recently won the patent its rectangular shape and rounded edge iPADs.

http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-ipad-...nt-2012-11?op=1


So, if any makers of other tablets try to make their tablet shaped like AAPL, they will be sued...

How absurd...indeed. doh.gif


Added on November 15, 2012, 12:09 amTesting SP500 1363-1365 short term floor tonight...7% correction from top.
Early bulls probably step in.. biggrin.gif


Added on November 15, 2012, 4:30 amObama speaks again.. bulls abandoned positions.. bears took over. $SPX= 1358... going lower. wink.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 15 2012, 04:31 AM

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