Well, market timing here is important.. like I said, AAPL iphone5 sales isn't baked into this coming Q report.
So, I don't expect the numbers to be stellar. But, upcoming holiday sales at year end could be a good boost for AAPL.

Also, when I check into my sources.. this time around, I don't see much long lines of iPhone5 buyers at the stores after two weeks of announcement. There seems to ample supply available to meet the demand so far. Demand are quite nominal - unlike the previous iPhone crazy demand.. 3-4 weeks of waiting, now it seems like only 1 week of wait only.. and now.. everything is available when you walk in - that's all. I don't see a mad rush to buy iPhones like before, maybe it is still too early into the holiday sales at this time?

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 4 2012, 04:28 AM

Hey Z! Welcome back!

Watch the jobs report tonight.. mad bulls will probably want a better report to take this higher.
I'm going to try sell into the rally if it happens.

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Added on October 5, 2012, 9:10 pmUpdate: 9pm

UE good tonight: 7.8%.. all numbers are good incl. participation rate, last month revisions, etc..
Looking for good gap up and I'll take some money off the table for this weekend.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 5 2012, 09:10 PM

DiviW: Check out T or CTL.. pretty good divi, more than 4% play.

Or best yet.. just buy SPY (SP500) itself yield about 5% and also gain 10% for the year.

Tonight.. time to play a little short due to China fears again.

AAPL price action now has dropped 10% since the iPhone5 launch.. that's disappointing but great for bears!!
So much for the 10m sales during launch.. what a load of crocks the bulls have cooked up.

AAPL is losing its leadership in the stock market. These past week or so, we're seeing money is
flowing out from AAPL when it drops below the 50ma.

AAPL already lost its relative strength as compared to GOOG. The hedge funds owns too much AAPL and now realized it and they've dumping it and moving their money elsewhere.

Also, I think Q3 is going to be huge disappointment for AAPL bulls.

Z is correct, the iPhones5 aren't revolutionary as the last few products and they're playing 'catchup' here.
Everything that Iphone5 has, the rival Samsung S3 already got it and even better: NFC.
Seen the new ads yet? With NFC, file exchanges with just as easy touch and go.

So, what next catalyst for AAPL? iPAD mini? Well, its' been reported AAPL has ordered 10mln of these doorstops from China. Even S.Jobs was against the 7" screen.. not sure what's T.Cook is thinking here.

Let see if AAPL can hold the support $600 price or not.. if not, we'll see $575-$580 soon. I'll be there if it happens.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 9 2012, 11:24 PM

Who's waiting for Feb? I'm ripping AAPL right here, right now!
Thanks a bunch AAPL!

Waiting for another round to shake this tree..

PD, looks like you've much to learn on trading AAPL and its price action. 640 the floor has became resistance when it broke.
No wonder you're losing your shirts over your options play. Just watch this baby burn up your decaying calls.

Shorted again at 640 on this intraday bounce up.. just watch and learn.

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Added on October 10, 2012, 3:58 amUpdate:
Closed short for AAPL: 635.50, made another scalping trades here.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 10 2012, 03:58 AM

I'm cool but dunno about PD. He's strange fella.. keep buying when it was high. Now, suggesting I should buy far out months calls spread. Absolutely nuts..


Z: AAPL rolled over the $650 cliff two trading days ago. Volume increasing too.. money being taken out from this fruit company for now. Good to stay cautious.. imo, any rally should be sold.


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 10 2012, 12:27 PM

PD,

It seems we're on a different wavelength here. My time frame for trading AAPL (via options) is short term.. whether short or long, my trading can be around 1 day or a few days and at most a few weeks. I don't play leaps nor months out options.

Now, hovering around 640'sh present another opportunity for me to play the weekly puts again for the 2nd wave down.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 11 2012, 12:58 AM

Andy who?
I'll be real skeptical when someone on the web called the bottom.. in reality no one really knows until after the fact and until some time later.
Even when the famous Doug Kass made the call.. just 2 out of 10 calls came true.
Anyway, good luck with your trades.

I'm doing another quick scalp trade for AAPL tonight.. it looking for revesal with a gap up.
Puts in 645.. looking for quick scalp out 635 area. Hoping for a $10 ride down. Almost there..

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Added on October 11, 2012, 11:22 pmTagged 634.50... that's it. I'm out. Good enough now.



This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 11 2012, 11:22 PM

Hey PD, let's not get into that PC vs Mac argument thingy.. nor AAPL (or any other XXX company) is the best company in the world.

Let's continue to chat on how to make money from this market here.

Sure, we all have our own ways in trading but let's continue to share what's work for ourselves and feel free to discuss your plan or your thinking but I don't wish to see board members here bash each just because they don't like
other trading on the other side.

Both bears and bulls can make money in this market. We all understand tis. Correct?

Anyway, tonight, I'm seeing AAPL attempting to reverse together with the broader market but
like I've mentioned yesterday, every rallies seemed to be likely sold for now.
We may see further deterioration here.. so stay cautious.

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Added on October 11, 2012, 11:45 pmUpdate: 11:45pm

AAPL - darn it.. tagged 632.. should have waited a bit longer to exit my puts.
Going for calls here soon. waiting for bounce. RSI almost at oversold condition.
Skynet chalking up volume..

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 11 2012, 11:45 PM

Here comes 632 again... whack whack whack.. skynet selling AAPL hard tonight.

OK... 632, I'm on the bull side weekly calls..now.
Need to get some fast money for this weekend.

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Added on October 12, 2012, 1:45 amUpdate: 1:40am

Double down at 630.. @ 630 wk calls for 4.70 ~ avg:$5.10

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Added on October 12, 2012, 1:57 amupdate:1:56am
WTF:... 630 again added a bit more at 4.50... avg 5.00 now.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 12 2012, 01:57 AM

Update: 2:15am

633.50 @ 6.10 SOLD!!!

Got me weekend cash for now!

Judging by today price action.. the bulls gave up near closing and the price went all the way down to session low and broke the $630 (line in the sand) by closing. Darn, I could have jump back to the PUTs side.. Oh well.. can't be too greedy.

Yeah $590~$600 range could be next range play... if next support at 615-620 breaks down.

AAPL definitely walking down the steps here for now... today US appeal court on reversal on Samsung
phones sale banned probably has triggered more sell off.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 12 2012, 07:09 AM

LOL!

AAPL, oh wait..it already touched $700..
So, it's ok let AAPL walk down to $600 as next target.

That $100 walk down could give us a lot of opportunity to make money.

Yeah..it is holding at support at 1428 now (exactly at 50ma)... line in the sand. Next week.. if drops below there.
Looks like its going to be 30pts drop to 1400, then 25pts to 1375 area (bounce or die here),
below that, its' land of the bears!

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Added on October 13, 2012, 4:20 amYes, definitely possible but you got 15% tax on divi...so you need to hold and earn more.
Depending on your time horizon, maybe better play stock with better capital gain.. no tax.


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 13 2012, 04:20 AM

Wall Street crooks robbed both banks today despite strong earnings ... both JPM and WFC got whacked.

WFC got really good numbers.. beat on both eps and revenue but just a slight miss on net.interest margin,
the trading machines took off -2.64% anyway. wtf..

Next week to watch: BAC and C!

If you fill out W8-BEN form, then you don't have to pay taxes on your cap gains 'coz you're not a US resident or citizen but you still have to pay 15% dividend tax (withhold between 25%~30%, but when you file 1080NR, you can claim back the other 15% on April 15).

yok70: Options play is not for newbies, therefore you make sure you know what you're doing. Get the freebie virtual account to try this out first before you put real money in there.

Some brokers only allow you to sell cover calls or buy puts if you want just the basic options feature..
selling calls and buying protective puts - you must have the commons on hand.

The naked calls/puts are pretty dangerous.. and the bulls/bears spreads are just ways you can use option tools to hedge upside/downside reducing some risks.

Also, I think some brokerage options acct may also require you to have margin acct. min US$25k (esp you want to play naked calls/puts).

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 15 2012, 11:05 AM

Trading commodities futures are pretty volatile esp when the contract can expire, price will fall because of the front month falling due to actual demand are falling. You can keep rolling it out.. but each roll will cause you more money because of premium in future months.

I've played crude oil couple of times.. same deal here esp it is more volatile due to contango issues.
Using ETF index like to mirror crude performance also same deal... NAV price decayed when it rolls to next month.
Diff. to make money. There is no such thing as BUY and HOLD for commodities.. just BUY and TRADE to make money.

Playing future commodities is like juggling knives..

Playing futures with options is like juggling dynamite sticks.